Ranked Teams Not Favored

[kayaman]

I'm new to this forum, I usually follow the NBA but I made an interesting observation tonight with top 25 teams. Three ranked teams, 9 UNC, 11 Oklahoma, and 19 Wisonsin, were all underdogs by +2, +5, and +1 respectively. All three lost outright and did not cover. Now this is something I just noticed and it could easily be a fluke. I'm going to keep following this and post anything if I see a pattern. But for now I was wondering if anybody has noticed this or seen anything like it before. Like I said I don't know much about college basketball so if anybody has any answers or ideas I'd appreciate it.

Thanks!

 

[ATL]

really what's worth noting is how much of an advantage the home court is worth, particularly with a strong coach on your bench, look at all three of the coaches that pulled the "upsets" tonight, no real surprises there...road favorites are hard to play, particularly in conference match-ups.

 

[BlackampGold]

It wins more than loses for sure. Syracuse over Mizzou is a perfect example of how it is not full-proof however. I watch for this one like a hawk but yes, don't let it be the ONLY factor in making the play.

 

[kayaman]

Very good points. I never realized how much an advantage homecourt really has. I remember this weekend UF stomped tennessee but last night tenn beat vandy. Now I'm sure vandy doesn't hail in comparison to florida.

Like I said I'm going to keep my eye on this and post anything I see. I won't be playing them at first. Just going to use this as a spot to note my findings. Today looks normal. Until tomorrow.

 

[Cappthespread.com]

It wasn't always like this. Now home court advantage is factored into the spread because so many people would go for the home dog. Vegas tries hard to get a 50/50 share of the wagering on each side.

 

[epper]

on a site about 3 years, can't remember where--may have been the old vegasinsider forums, a guy followed this and had a %. It was rather high, like %70 of the time. I have been betting it ever since. I may have missed a game or 2 this year, but I am 4-2-1 so far this year. Lost Mizzou/cuse and Prov/texas. Won 3 last night and pushed Purdue. Can't remember the other game I won. It was early on though. This weekend LSU could be a play on Miss st. That's it, so we wait until we get next week the new rankings. Vandy and Illi should drop out and Purdue and maryland get in providing nothing crazy happens this weekend. Also you may think I am nuts but watch both polls. I only bet this and the Big east. That's it

 

[PITBULL]

Yes people use this as their system plays in other forums. Unranked favored over ranked. This is nothing new, and a high % does hit.

 

[kayaman]

This is very useful information. I hope it works throughout the season and every other season with a winning percentage.

Epper, you say you've been playing this strategy for some time now. Has it been successful in the past years?

 

[epper]

This is my third year doing it. I am not a BIG better. 100-250 a game, but I have been up going into March madness. I looked in my "notebook" last night form last year and saw that it was more successful, then me just picking games. I also wasa crushed in the last 2 tourni's. I really have a decent amount of success with it. few years ago I would bet all over the board and had no clue about the pac 10 etc and would lose, so I kept this system and focused on the Big East since I am in Big East country and can get a lot of info

 

[kayaman]

sounds good, epp. Do you post any picks?

 

[kayaman]

Going into Saturday I got some early lines and I saw that #20 Mississippi St and #17 Syracuse are the dogs. Just like you said Epp about Miss St. Miss St is +3 at LSU and Cuse is +1 at Notre Dame. Gonna keep my eye on this and see how it works out.

 

[yonko]

kayaman, have you played those games already or are you holding out and watching line movement? Also, thanks for this info. Something I've never heard of before.

 

[LENBO]

N. Carolina -1.5 over U Conn would also
qualify today.

 

[vegaswahoo]

my pal is 7-3-1 this year I believe

Lenbo it is UNRANKED favored
unc no qualify

 

[LENBO]

vegaswahoo-
You are correct. Was thinking of the lower vs. higher ranked system. Both are ranked.

 

[Budman]

But how often does #1 get points, may qualify here as Uconn has destroyed both OK and Georgetown recently.

 

[Jaguar]

You guys are really only scratching the surface. The whole premise of what you are saying is that "Vegas is trying to tell you something". You will find that other similar opportunities exist using completely unranked teams. For instance Hofstra (6-9,2-3) is hosting NCWilmington (8-5,4-1) today at 4pm est. Wilmington has a winning record and is near the top of the conference while Hofstra has a losing record and is near the bottom. Hofstra is a 2.5 pt favorite. In essence the same type of situation. Now neither team is ranked here but clearly Wilmington is the better team.

Look at Idaho and Pacific. Pacific is 9-7,4-1 while Idaho is 4-9,1-3 and yet Idaho is -1.5. The point is that you don't have to have a ranked team to encounter this type of opportunity.


Good Luck.

Dan

 

[LENBO]

This sounds like it could be a profitable angle to follow throughout the season. You will most likely be getting a team at home looking to prove they can play with the big boys. Also, some of the games will be on national TV which will get the home crowd and players a little more pumped up.

 

[epper]

I post when I can, but mostly I lurk. Weekends are aalways easier, but today ND and LSU qualify. I'll play both

 

[yonko]

epper, I see Notre Dame now at a pick. You still play them? I am assumong you go by the opening lines on these games? Thanks for your help.