Randizzle's Week 5 NCAAF!! **(15-2-2 YTD)**

[Randizzle14]

ALright guys, lets have another great College Week.

I have not yet locked anything in, but here are the plays I am looking at. A few I WILL be playing, just not wagered yet.

Games I will be Playing:
1. LSU -23.5 (5 Units)
2. Miami -7 (3 Units)
3. Oklahoma St. -16.5 (3 Units)

Games I'm Looking at:
1. Auburn -6.5
2. SMU +17.5
3. Alabama +7.5
4. Illinois +14
5. Ball St. -17

May Write up some analysis if I can get the time this week. I will probably only play 3 or 4 of the games I am looking at. Will Update those I decide to play.




Let's keep the streak alive this week.
Dizzle :toast:

2006-2007 Handicapping Record ATS 186-126-10 (59.6%) (+91.5 Units)

NCAA Football= 28-15-1 (65%) (+20.4 Units)
NFL Football =11-5-1 (69%) (+9.8 Units)
NBA Basketball =26-18-2 (59.1%) (+6.7 Units)
NCAA Basketball ATS= 103-80-6(57.0%) (+33.3 Units)
NCAA Basketball O/U's= 12-4-0 (75%) (+18.2 Units)
NHL Hockey = 6-4 (56%) (+3.2 Units)
-----------------------------------------------
07-08 Record 96-63-7 (60.4%) (+47 Units)
NCAA Football= 34-22-2 (60%) (+ 12 Units)
NFL Football ATS= 43-30-4 (57%) (+15.2 Units)
MLB Baseball= 8-4-0 (66%) (+6.4 Units)
NCAA Basketball ATS= 9-7-1 (57%) (+5.4 Units)
NBA Basketball= 2-0-0 (+8 Units)
-----------------------------------------------
2008-2009 Season 21-8-1 (69.56%) (+45.3 Units)

NCAA Football - 15-2-1 (86.6%) (+38.8 Units)
NFL Football-11-10-0 (50%) (+0.5 Units)

PREMIUM PICKS- 6-2-0 (+14.5 Units)


OVERALL= 307-201-18 (60.32%) (+186.8 Units)

 

[Preussen]

2006-2007 Handicapping Record ATS 186-126-10 (59.6%) (+91.5 Units)

NCAA Football= 28-15-1 (65%) (+20.4 Units)
NFL Football =11-5-1 (69%) (+9.8 Units)
NBA Basketball =26-18-2 (59.1%) (+6.7 Units)
NCAA Basketball ATS= 103-80-6(57.0%) (+33.3 Units)
NCAA Basketball O/U's= 12-4-0 (75%) (+18.2 Units)
NHL Hockey = 6-4 (56%) (+3.2 Units)
-----------------------------------------------
07-08 Record 96-63-7 (60.4%) (+47 Units)
NCAA Football= 34-22-2 (60%) (+ 12 Units)
NFL Football ATS= 43-30-4 (57%) (+15.2 Units)
MLB Baseball= 8-4-0 (66%) (+6.4 Units)
NCAA Basketball ATS= 9-7-1 (57%) (+5.4 Units)
NBA Basketball= 2-0-0 (+8 Units)
-----------------------------------------------
2008-2009 Season 21-8-1 (69.56%) (+45.3 Units)

NCAA Football - 15-2-1 (86.6%) (+38.8 Units)
NFL Football-11-10-0 (50%) (+0.5 Units)

PREMIUM PICKS- 6-2-0 (+14.5 Units)


OVERALL= 307-201-18 (60.32%) (+186.8 Units)

It seems you are here on this forum for ten days only. Where can all these picks be verified? If they cannot, please only post a record for the picks you made here.

 

[Randizzle14]

Find my Week 4 thread

It will explain everything. I have already had this discussion. All the answers to your questions can be found there..

Ya know what i'll give u the link to that thread.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=615030

:toast:

 

[Preussen]

Sorry, I had missed that thread. Good luck with your picks!

 

[Randizzle14]

Locking in: SMU +17.5 (3 Units)

SMU (1 - 3) at TULANE (1 - 2)

Week 5 Thursday, 9/25/2008 8:00 PM

Play On - Any team (SMU) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
(65-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%, +33.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-9).

Looks Good To Me

 

[Randizzle14]

Locking in LSU -23.5 (3 Units)

MISSISSIPPI ST (1 - 3) at LSU (3 - 0)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2008 7:30 PM

LSU is 15-1 ATS when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992.
The average score was LSU 39.4, OPPONENT 13.2
LSU is 40-18 ATS when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards since 1992.
The average score was LSU 30.7, OPPONENT 15.1
LSU is 63-27 ATS when they score 28 or more points since 1992.
The average score was LSU 39.9, OPPONENT 15.2
LSU is 18-6 ATS when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992.
The average score was LSU 37.7, OPPONENT 15.7


All games in this series since 1992
-----------------------------------------------
LSU is 14-2 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992
LSU is 15-1 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
The average score in these games was LSU 36, MISSISSIPPI ST 12
The average spread in these games was LSU favored by 7.6 points.
The average total in these games was 44.9 points.

:toast:

 

[AR_23]

Miami is looking good, i see at -8 already

 

[vinnyvegas]

Nice records. GL

Do u play only based on situationals or trends? I factor in current year stats & as an example when I run my #'s on SMU/Tulane, I show Tulane blowing them out (21+). My lean is Tulane, being at home helps lean too. Regardless, I haven't decided 100%...again BOL on your picks!

 

[Randizzle14]

Locking in: Ball St -17 (3 Units)

KENT ST (1 - 3) at BALL ST (4 - 0)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2008 12:00 PM

Estimated Line is Ball St. -23
Actual Line is Ball St. -17

KENT ST is 2-12 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons.

KENT ST is 1-12 ATS when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

BALL ST is 8-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

BALL ST is 7-0 ATS in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Martin is 1-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. as the coach of KENT ST.

Dizzle :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Vinny Vegas

I try and factor in as many different angles as possible when capping my games. I have a process I go through, and the games that meet the most criteria i'm looking for, I pull the trigger.

These stats are NOT the only reason I play these games, I just figured you guys would appreciate these trends and stats. Besides you know what they say "numbers dont lie".

GL:toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Game I'm looking at: SD St. -11

Not sure yet, but looking it over.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I'm very interested in capping the Penn St. Illini game. Illinois is not a team that gets blown out in most cases. Their defense is really questionable with all the injuries they have suffered but I think they will compete with Penn St. They have had 2 weeks to prepare for the game and will with out a doubt be the toughest opponent to visit happy valley thus far. The Illini get a few more players back and Juice Williams could keep them close. This game could resemble the Illinois OSU game last year. What are your thoughts?

 

[Jetplane]

I'm really liking LSU buddy. GET EM.

 

[CLCfball11]

Just a heads up to you, Randizzle...Ball State's star receiver dante love went down with a severe spinal cord injury on saturday and will never play again. As far as the play goes, this will undoubtedly affect Ball State's ability as an offense, and the entire team should probably be down as they are, after all, friends as well as teammates. Just a little tidbit of information that I wasn't sure if you knew or not. Good luck! :toast:

 

[mac114]

Impressive record and good info. Thanks and keep the info coming.

 

[parlayin]

Randizzle, in that thread you linked, Louisville was not listed as an official play before the game started, but showed up in your "official plays" post as a winner on Sep 20. The only post before the game was played listed the "likely games" and games you were "leaning toward and looking at," but the Cardinals weren't even listed there. The game was played on Sep 17.

 

[liftnbet]

great job so far

 

[Randizzle14]

I'm very interested in capping the Penn St. Illini game. Illinois is not a team that gets blown out in most cases. Their defense is really questionable with all the injuries they have suffered but I think they will compete with Penn St. They have had 2 weeks to prepare for the game and will with out a doubt be the toughest opponent to visit happy valley thus far. The Illini get a few more players back and Juice Williams could keep them close. This game could resemble the Illinois OSU game last year. What are your thoughts?

I Totally agree with you. Juice Williams should be able to keep them in the game. Injuries do scare me, but Hardeman is expected back this week whuch should help in coverage. But, Penn State will be looking to avenge last season's 27-20 loss at Illinois, which defeated a ranked opponent for the first time since 2001. The Fighting Illini, who were coming off five straight losing campaigns, used the victory over Penn State as a springboard to a 9-3 regular season and a berth in the Rose Bowl. So we know that Penn St. defiitly wants this game. Im just not yet sold on Illinois. Here are a few trends that may help you in your decision.

Penn St.-
PENN ST is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was PENN ST 37.1, OPPONENT 15.0

Illinois-
Play Against - Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (PENN ST) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game.
(33-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.6%)

ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 21.6, OPPONENT 24.6

Head To Head History-
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>All games played at PENN ST since 1992
----------------------------------------------------------------------
</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">ILLINOIS is 3-2 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1992</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">PENN ST is 5-0 straight up against ILLINOIS since 1992</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">The average score in these games was PENN ST 28, ILLINOIS 12</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">The average spread in these games was PENN ST favored by 16.1 points.</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">The average total in these games was 49.0 points.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Hope that helps, like I said im not convinced quite yet.

GL:toast:
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Randizzle14]

Parlayin

Randizzle, in that thread you linked, Louisville was not listed as an official play before the game started, but showed up in your "official plays" post as a winner on Sep 20. The only post before the game was played listed the "likely games" and games you were "leaning toward and looking at," but the Cardinals weren't even listed there. The game was played on Sep 17.

PM me and I will give you and anyone else who would like the link to the forum that it IS posted on and days before gametime. I would be happy to give it to you. ALL my play are tracked.

:toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Game Im Looking into: SDST -11

Not sure, but liking what im seeing, will let you know if its a play

:toast: