Question To The Forum: What Do Your Units Mean?

[SportSavant]

This has bugged me for a long time ted, everyone has different systems when tracking & if there is no definition of the system then the YTD or the + Units means nothing really...

I dont post NCAAB plays (I use sharp cappers plays instead)...But I do Post NBA & NHL plays...I defined my system from day 1...very simple really, in order to make tracking easy & for viewers to be able to ascren my record correctly I rate every play as 1 Unit...which is 1% of bankroll...I have only deviated from this once with a 3% play in the NHL once....This way anyone who views my thread in NBA can see my WIN/LOSS record which will indicate my record. In NHL I also include a +/- units as we are often placing wagers with a =/- juice situation...

as it stands know when we read someones thread we have no idea of their 'True' record...(Except for a few exceptions who clearly track themselves & define their system)...after all someone could be down huge on 5 Unit plays for the year but then decide to bang two 50 unit plays & will then post that they have a positive unit count.

 

[jcambert]

SS, who are the sharp cappers that you follow on here?

JP

 

[SportSavant]

Ted I notice you never have 2* or 4* plays, so why not just rate your plays 1*, 2* & 3*?

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

If you recall in my thread last December entitled "Money Management - Middle to Advanced Levels", I detailed my entire 2002 Football Season from NFL Preseason through the Superbowl, including all college and pro games. In the article, you may recall that I had my rating range 1*-5* and there were many, many 1*, 1.5*, 2*, 2.5*, 3*, 3.5*, 4*, 4.5* and 5* plays. When I registered with the RX, for purposes of simplification, I kept the overall range the same of 1*-5* but have kept my plays at 1*(Regular), 3*(Strong) and 5*(Rare). This was to make it easier for the reader to be able to differentiate between a Regular, Strong, and Rare play yet still keeps the importance of the unit difference between the plays. A strong play for me is three times the value of a regular play and a rare play is five times the value of a regular play. This has developed over my many years of experience being able to differentiate between the plays. Basically for purposes of the forum, I compressed the wider variety of plays into just the three to help the viewer. I hope that helps you understand my reasoning.

 

[oldmanTED]

I would like to thank everyone who participated in providing their thoughts and information on the meaning of their units. I had hoped for a better turnout and response from some of the forums most viewed and successful handicappers as I felt that both members and viewers were interested in better understanding the meaning of their releases. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, those handicappers that I thought would willingly share with the forum have chosen not to do so which is a shame. Their silence is deafening and speaks volumes to this oldman. The readers remain in the position of having to guess what their units truly mean.

 

[SportSavant]

very difficult question to answer...I respect alot of them & my capping system involves a few different steps...some cappers are hotter than others so that is something to watch...

check for the # of views a capper gets, that tells alot to how much they have proven...look for logic & a clear record keeping from the capper...not all cappers however are good record keepers...Co-Captain is a hell of a capper but he doesnt keep records on a daily basis.....

1) I usually write down about 4 or 5 of the cappers I think are hot or respectable on a peice of paper

2) I cross out conflicts among what I feel are top cappers...

3) wait till the last hour to start shopping lines..if the line has moved in favor of the play I take it...if not I pass

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I had hoped for a better turnout and response from some of the forums most viewed and successful handicappers as I felt that both members and viewers were interested in better understanding the meaning of their releases. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, those handicappers that I thought would willingly share with the forum have chosen not to do so which is a shame. Their silence is deafening and speaks volumes to this oldman. The readers remain in the position of having to guess what their units truly mean. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

ted i echo your sentiments exactly...however there is still time...perhaps with the upcoming baseball season we can discuss this further...& perhaps all cappers can examine a simplified model for posting their picks which will allow players the ability to truly gage their skills...

as it stands all my plays will be posted for 1 unit (which = 1 % of bankroll) & I will always update those on the system I am using. From time to time I may have a stronger play...like I did in NHL yesterday, so I will categorize them seperately.

 

[Kodiak7]

I just read this.. I don't think there is any confusion in my units but here it is.. I play games based off of this AVG =1unit / TOP =2unit / POW =3unit / POY=5unit..

I always have 100 units floating in 4 accounts.. anytime I go over 100 I make a withdraw from one of those sources... I do not like to risk more then 5units on any play.... most nights I have 10-18 units pending... I have withdrawn over 120 units since mid-september...

 

[SportSavant]

kodiak, this is a very organized & skilled explanation...1 Unit = 1 % of bankroll & you play several size games up to 5% of bankroll.

you are obviously a very skilled capper which shows clearly in your selections...just out of curiousity...why dont you keep a daily running total on the avg, top, pow & poy's in your thread?

Also wondering wether you find you hit at a greater % your top plays over the long run than your average plays?

 

[ATX]

the only place the word "unit" is used is on the sports forums.

the word unit has basically no definition.

to some people it is 1%, to others who freaking knows???

in other markets, everything is discussed by percentage of port.

guys often talk to locals about getting down by dollars and dimes, but any mention of units would be hilarious, you can imagine the jokes.

some people prefer to use "units" on the forums because they never run out of "units", it is undefined, and with "units" you can chase infinitely if need be.

other people define what their "unit" is as a percentage of bankroll. in my opinion it is much simpler to list everything as a straightforward percentage of bankroll, there is no conversion necessary. plus, there is no question about how many "units" you are starting with, all you've got is 100%.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> in my opinion it is much simpler to list everything as a straightforward percentage of bankroll, there is no conversion necessary. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


This makes alot of sense folks, why have 1 unit plays or 2 units or 5 or 10 or 50 for that matter...too many different systems...

If all plays were described as a percentage...

For Example in Your Example above Kodiac your Units would be

avg = 1%
Top = 2%
Pow = 3%
Poy = 5%

In my case most of My plays would be listed as 1%...If we all used percenatage units then In this cappers humble opinion we would be doing a much better service to our readers who are trying to distinguish between the 'real' cappers & the 'pretenders'...

Good system ATX...

Any more suggestions folks?

 

[Kodiak7]

SS I do.. look at my CFB breakdown:

181-120 overall: (61%) (bowls included)

1-0 POY: (100%)

26-13 POW: (67%)

88-55 TOP: (62%)

BOWLS: = 24-14 (63%)

in cbb and the nba with plays going every night, I hate updating over and over again.. I know that my POY are 6-1 YTD.. My POW and TOP hit at a higher rate then my AVG. and that I'm up over 40 units total on the year in cbb / over 20 in the nba...

[This message was edited by Kodiak7 on February 26, 2004 at 11:21 AM.]

 

[Kapusta]

Ted just checked out the post! To me 1 Unit=$100, most I would play is 5 Units=$500. Having a nice bankroll and playing with the mans cash during the college season also helps! Have one seperate account for betting and is pretty dead on with the year to date minus a little vig money.

 

[ATX]

the majority of people out there probably think that betting as a percentage of bankroll is rubbish...

but the simple truth: even if you were to hit 62% of 500 wagers, if you were betting just 5% of bankroll on each you would be in serious jeopardy of losing it all at some point. people see the end result, they dont understand the streaks in-between.

Northern Ice had a great example of the streaks involved during a 60% win distribution. His example was the Boston Red Sox season two or three years ago. They won 60% of their games that year, but had losing streaks of many games in a row, AND VERY BAD STRETCHES DURING A SAMPLE OF 35 GAMES. It's not necessarily the 'losses in a row' that are killers, it's the bad stretches over a sample of 50 games or so. At some point, in all probability, even a 60% bettor will lose over 65% of wagers OVER A 50 GAME SAMPLE. At 5% of BR an 18 to 32 wins to losses streak will kill you, and mentally you wont have it together enough to bang it back out.

dont even think you will hit 60% of wagers over a large number of games. it happens at times, and when it does enjoy it, but counting on 60% winners is a bad, bad idea. besides, if you are hitting above 56% or so, you are actually not betting on enough games from a profitablity standpoint.

 

[oldmanTED]

So far some excellent responses as it appears that there is a pretty good split between our forums handicappers. Many use a percentage of their bankroll to determine the level of their play while others seem comfortable with a dollar base amount with no reference to an overall bankroll.

Would like to make one last appeal to those fine handicappers who are solid and doing extremely well this year and have a large following both from RX members as well as viewers.

The posters that I would like to hear from are Co-Captain, NY Reb, Allstar, Kojak and Omahamoneymaker to name a few. Although not all of you specify a unit, each of you have a large following and I believe your readers would be anxious to hear your thoughts on the meaning of your specified units or if not the units, the base you may use for your plays. With the success that you all have enjoyed, it would be of great value to share your insights to help those with not as much experience learn from your success.

If anyone else would like to express and share their ideas on clarification of the units, please feel free to do so. Also, if any member wishes to ask any questions of your favorite handicappers, you shouldn't hesitate to do so. We are all here to help each other and the forum membership as well as the viewers, so hopefully our best handicappers will step forward and provide our readers with a response to this thread and any other questions that might arise. Hope to hear from those that I have mentioned. Thank you in advance for your consideration.

 

[NYReb]

Interesting topic, Ted. I would think units might mean something different to each person. Here is a clarification of my system.

Some people like to bet on only special games, or as few games as they can narrow it down to. My 10*s suit such people just fine. If I feel a game is a totally win-win proposition, I might throw an occasional 15* on it (I am 2-0 on such plays in basketball so far.) Other than those, a 10* is my maximum wager. If a person wants very selective games, then he can usually trust my 10* to be right most of the time. I started slow with my 10*s this season, after doing really welll with them in football, but recently I have hit 14 of the last 17 in cbb.

My 7*s are my strong plays. I feel that they have a very good shot and that anyone who followed them over time would do well. I am fairly selective about 7*s, yet these are the majority of my plays. I bet about 70% of what I would wager on a 10*.

A 5* is generally for people who want more action. Sometimes these are televised games that I feel strongly about, but not strongly enough to make it a 7*. I wager about half as much on these games as I do my 10*s. No one would make a lot of money betting my 5*s alone, but he probably wouldn't lose any either. I hit over 50% of my 5*s or I wouldn't play them.

I used to do 3*s, but they actually did lose, so I boot them. For an action man, I get enough without them.

My unit system is close to percentage of bankroll, but not exactly.

Hope this helps

 

[oldmanTED]

Still looking for comments from Co-Captain, Allstar and Kojak as well as anyone else. Appreciate any comments. Thank you.

 

[WilliamMoney]

ted,i am new to the ways of sports wagering. you and jlambert were very helpful to me by teaching me the correct way that i should manage my bankroll.as i read some of these responses i just cant understand how there can be many methods for determining the value of a "unit". you said in closing that many use a % of their bankroll to determine the level of their play while others seem comfortable with a dollar based amount with no reference to an overall bankroll. i dont understand how it is possible to attach a $value to a unit without referring to an overall bankroll. someone stated that he basically varies his bet from 1-$5 feeling like he can hit a smaller % of plays and still make $. doesn't logic then dictate that by varying his plays from $1-$5 that he can hit a larger % of plays and lose money? if wagering on sports has so much to do with numbers, how can there be so many different methods in trying to make money over time while protecting you bankroll? if it is correct $ management to never play more than 2% of bankroll than if someone is wagering 5dimes on a particular play then all i have learned from this is what the amount of his bank should be to support this play. if you,atx, jlambert are correct(and i think you are) than how can someone get so fired up about how much he is wagering on a particular game? i mean if someone loses 2grand on a game it shouldn't be that big of a deal because he has 100,000 in his bank! it seems to me that after thinking about what you, atx, and jlambert have to say about proper $ management that i will never be excited about 1 game or 1 week or 1 month of results ever again. when one of my buddies asks me how much i have riding on a game i can tell him that the game is a stone cold lock and that is why i "unloaded" on it for $50! or 1 "unit". or 100% of 1%! and i really thought a $5000 bankroll was pretty big!

 

[SportSavant]

william money...

remember...discipline is one of the biggest monsters that afflict on gamblers...why do you think there are so many bookies...most players do not have the discipline to attain perfect Money management...its not that they dont know how...the need for action is overwhelming sometimes...

 

[oldmanTED]

William Money:

After 30+ years in this business, I have developed the money management method which I am most comfortable with and which has consistently yielded an annual positive return on my bankroll. What I and others were recommending to you was a more fixed and constant straight forward method which you could use particularly when you are starting money management for the first time. It takes a long time to become comfortable with a varied method.

In some of the responses you are seeing to this thread, is that a number of forum handicappers prefer to use a straight dollar amount to make their wagers. That straight wager may or may not be a percentage of their bankroll. To be perfectly candid, not all people who wager actually have a bankroll. Although it is my belief that it is important to have a separate bankroll set aside from personal expenses in order to succeed in the long run, not everyone necessarily agrees. Futhermore, as you have already realized, it takes a lot of discipline and time to build upon one's bankroll and not everyone will have that patience or discipline. This is why I have mentioned many times on these forums that I have seen some of the best handicappers fail because they have poor or no money management plans. One of the reasons for this thread was to try and better understand the meaning of the units that some of the forums best handicappers use. Is it a percentage of their bankroll or is it dollar based. The answers have shown both.

Last, you were astute enough to realize that when one plays either 1% or 2% of their bankroll, how is it that they would even get excited with a win or a loss. There are many of us that do not get excited about a win or loss and treat them both the same by looking at the long view knowing how long it will take to build the bankroll, thus any particular play is treated the same. As to the size of the bankroll, your mathematics are correct. A dime player requires a bankroll of $100,000 if he/she uses a 1% flat wager. It is highly unlikely that there are very many posters on this forum that possess such a bankroll. There are a few however. You have a nice bankroll to begin. When I started long ago, I had less than that. $5000 is not a large bankroll but it is of sufficient size to build upon and with good discipline and proper money management, and successful handicapping, you can build it gradually to $10,000 and then $20,000 and so on. One of our forums example who is honest and hides nothing and who I have great respect for responded to this thread and he is a shining example of someone who is professional in how he handles this business and I don't think he would mind me mentioning his name. He is known as SSI. Trust what he says and follow his lead as I believe he started very small 18 years ago and now has built his bankroll nicely. A wonderful example to follow. Don't get discouraged. Do your work, remain disciplined, and you will succeed. Just don't expect it to happen overnight, otherwise you will end up in the graveyard of gamblers who have come and gone with the wind. My best wishes to you for a successful endeavor through this business.