Question for Brewers7 or any other numbers guru

[cd329 0]

There is a bunch of boneheads for a lack of a better word, that posted on another site saying how buying 2 points in baskets and laying 1.50 was like the best thing since sliced bread, now after reading these posts i just had to register and tell these guys that this was total losing method of going broke.
I tried showing them some math on why it doesnt work, but they insisted it did.
i even tried explaining that if it the books could get hurt from people buying 2 points and laying 1.50, they wouldnt let the bettors do it.
All i got was blah, blah, blah and a big attack on me. I just hate reading bad posts that can hurt new gamblers and this one can.
So my question to all you number guys, especially ones with databases, could you tell me how many games land within 2 points of the spread every year and what the effects would be buying 2 points.
Thank you for any help, wanna quiet these guys down, lmfaoooooooo
CD

 

[TheHawk 0]

I have 7,603 games in my database (98:99 - 03:04 seasons).

1,295 of them came within 2 points of the spread.

That's 17.32%.

 

[cd329 0]

The Hawk,
thank you very much for the help
Cd

 

[TheHawk 0]

Betting 1 unit on favroite each game w/ the points:

4254-3219-129, 56.92%.

Down 383 units.

 

[TheHawk 0]

Betting 1 unit on underdog each game w/ the points:

4360-3088-154, 58.54%.

Down 181.33 units.

 

[TheHawk 0]

cd,

No problem it took 2 minutes. Excel is amazing.

 

[cd329 0]

The Hawk,

you confused me with your second and third posts, was one of them supposed to be the underdog?
Thanks again

 

[TheHawk 0]

More stats....

Betting 1 unit on the favorite each game w/o the points:

3702-3750-150, 49.68%.

Down 384.55 units.

Betting 1 unit on the underdog each game w/o the points:

3750-3702-150, 50.32%.

Down 292.91 units.

• So taking the points essentially made no difference on the favorites.
• But it did appear to help with the underdogs (albeit blindly taking the dog w/ points will make you go broke).

 

[TheHawk 0]

Oops, copy & paste got me.

Fixed.

 

[cd329 0]

The Hawk,
just so i got this right, one set of numbers is the record with buying the points and the other records are without buying the points?
Thanks again
CD

 

[TheHawk 0]

Yeah my first 2 posts are with buying the points.


My last post is w/o buying the points.

 

[wurthes 0]

is your program just the scores of past games, or does it have spreads as well??

 

[TheHawk 0]

It has scores, spreads, and over/unders.

 

[wurthes 0]

it wouldn't by chance have 2nd half spreads would it?? i cant find a place that has the 2nd half spreads of past nba games??

 

[TheHawk 0]

Nope, sorry. I wish it did too.

 

[quantumleap 0]

Anyone know of a web site that has the quarter scores for a team and opponent all on one page? It would be easy to import into Excel in order to get the score averages.

 

[TheMDKid 0]

cd329,

I think that the answer to your original question depends greatly on the actual spread that you're buying off of. Buying off of 7 or 5 (the two most common game spread outcomes), would be more profitable than buying off of say 16 1/2. You need to research that.

 

[cd329 0]

Thank you for the info
cd