but the thing your obviously not getting is that you she and her dad should stay FAR FAR away from the nfl....... her dad is picking exactly 50% in the contest (with an abysmal 26-24)....... i mean lets just be honest that's just absolutely pathetic & will never cash in a million years.... they dont have to quit picking though.......... their NOSE that is since that's about all they can do well!
but the thing your obviously not getting is that you she and her dad should stay FAR FAR away from the nfl....... her dad is picking exactly 50% in the contest (with an abysmal 26-24)....... i mean lets just be honest that's just absolutely pathetic & will never cash in a million years.... they dont have to quit picking though.......... their NOSE that is since that's about all they can do well!
Hi Bernie,
Naaaa, I was just having a little pity party that morning. Nothing that a little extra hard work can't recover.
The only poster that got under my skin was Akilles for deleting my post.
As far as the points don't matter. I think I am going to dedicate week 11 thread to you and go off on exactly why they most certainly do matter. I love you Bernie but, I can't agree with you on that.
One game this week. One game at a time. No worries.
QOH, I'm assuming you are looking at this as sort of an investment. A way to grow your money. With that said, why would you now, with lowered confidence, put all your eggs in one basket, so to speak. Diversify still has to be the better approach?. Maybe limit the plays to a max 3 games?
I only vision in my head that there is only one game worth investing into this week. I may see three or four next week but not this week, I only see one and it has nothing to do with Theories, systems, models or stats. Ill admit now after five years of trying that you can't beat the NFL with stats alone. Not even the most elaborate stats and system that I do have and know extremely well will get the job done alone. There is just way too much more. I've learned it and now I just need to utilize the education that I have paid dearly for.
Way too much coffee today.....
Ouch some pissy people around here. If you are a shlub and play basic strategy we can agree never take insurance, guess I missed the point about taking insurance if counting. Would that potentially be a tell to the pit though, though you could feign stupidity to disguise or something. Something I will look for in the future for players that might regularly take insurance. BTW are there some quicky and dirty counting tricks (like count Aces) to give just a little more edge to a basic player?
There is a Ace Five Count it gives you a little advantage which is better then basic strategy.
Here's the A-5 card counting strategy:
Start the count from zero.
For every five dealt, add 1 to the count.
For every ace dealt, subtract 1 from the count.
When the count hits +2 or more, bet the maximum.
When the count is anything else but +2 or more, bet the minimum.
You also need to establish a bet spread which you are comfortable with and also which you can get away with. The lesser the spread the lesser the advantage. Here are some numbers :
1-8 will get you a 0.30% advantage
1-16 will get you a 0.45% advantage
1-32 will get you a 0.57% advantage
This is for a game with 4/8 deck shoe with the following rules.
Blackjack pays 3 to 2
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double after split allowed
Late surrender allowed
Re-splitting aces allowed
75%+ penetration
It's better then playing basic strategy were a player is playing with a negative expatiation of at least 0.50% depending on the rules.
There are plenty of easy counting systems to learn. If you want a balanced system I would use Hi-Lo. A Unbalanced count I would use KISS(KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID). Either one will get you the money. There is a book you can buy BLACKJACK BLUE BOOK II by Fred Renzey. Invest a couple of bucks and learn something. Also plenty of Blackjack forums that you can learn from. I hope this helps you.
Unfortunately, we can't predict who will win the turnover battle. And many times, that decides the winner. So ya, take the stats with a grain of salt.
Of course please remember that it will take thousands of hours of play for these stats to PREDICTABLY work out.
And...... How hard is it to find tables with the six rules you point out? I would expect that especially two of those, Re-splitting aces allowed and 75%+ penetration........ would be VERY difficult to find. Not impossible...... but damn near?
Did not want to be impolite...... but think the games (rules) Motor City is describing pretty much don't exist. Places have to offer blackjack or would be a public outcry. So.... they just bastardize the game several ways to their advantage!
The "carnival games" you are mentioning ibex...... they are a rip off. Of course, or they would not be offered. Pretty much may as well play a slot machine!
The "carnival games" you are mentioning ibex...... they are a rip off. Of course, or they would not be offered. Pretty much may as well play a slot machine!
Where are you playing ? Re split Aces are easy to find. Those conditions that I stated are very easy to find. One I will tell you that meet or exceeds all the conditions is the state of PA.
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My QUEEN
...So you have been picking these games based on stats, stats that are available to every Ham'n Egger in the world. Stats that would make everyone that could read a winner. I could have told you not five years ago but thirty years ago picking winners was more than just stats. After all if it was just stats even Pricks w/Ears like MotorCity Balloonhead, Statman, and Crack Head CrockadileEater could win as well. They can all read stats I believe. I have to give them that much credit. Useless human beings but they can read I hope. NFL picking has been more complicated the last few years because picking the straight-up winner in NFL games has become more difficult. Hmmm, picking the STRAIGHT-UP winner still goes a long way to making $$$$$.As far as the MotorCity Balloonhead giving advise on BJ card counting make sure you are giving advise to one that is going to a legitimate casino otherwise he'll be shit out of luck. A number of casinos have been busted for playing with the aces out of the deck. By the time it is figured out , they gladly pay the $300,000plus in fine as they just raked millions out of their customers. Something I'm sure you had no clue about. Oh by the way, if you've ever card counted that is by far not the best way for a number of reasons. But I wouldn't have figured you'd know the best way. Now get out your book on beating blackjack and find the best way to card count. Sorry QUEEN for that little tirade in your thread but I can't stand when people that don't know shit give advise to people especially when the advise could cost him/her thousands.
On to your deciding to go the one game route...Just a little story about my neighbor. SHE is a professional sports bettor that makes a solid living betting sports. Her father was one of the biggest bookies in the country and she is sharp. She stops by me everyday LOL and we talk games and sports. She even has me doing fantasy football this year because she claims I know match-ups to the "T". She plays in the NFL ONE GAME A WEEK. Exhibition she bet two games 2-0 and in the NFL regular season she is 9-1. She is 11-1 but she bets more money on her one game than I bet on my four or five games. The one game philosophy has worked wonders for her. Last Tuesday she stopped by me and asked me who I liked. I told her I liked Dallas, Denver, Green Bay, and loved Philly on Monday night. I told her I might add Atlanta which I did. She said she was pounding Denver, another easy winner for her. As I said we talk everyday and her one game a week philosophy works wonders for her. Maybe it will do you justice.
Good Luck THE REST OF THE WAY!!! (notice how I said REST OF THE WAY )
Yours in Winners
BernieV
My QUEEN
As far as the MotorCity Balloonhead giving advise on BJ card counting make sure you are giving advise to one that is going to a legitimate casino otherwise he'll be shit out of luck. A number of casinos have been busted for playing with the aces out of the deck. By the time it is figured out , they gladly pay the $300,000plus in fine as they just raked millions out of their customers. Something I'm sure you had no clue about. Oh by the way, if you've ever card counted that is by far not the best way for a number of reasons. But I wouldn't have figured you'd know the best way. Now get out your book on beating blackjack and find the best way to card count. Sorry QUEEN for that little tirade in your thread but I can't stand when people that don't know shit give advise to people especially when the advise could cost him/her thousands.
On to your deciding to go the one game route...Just a little story about my neighbor. SHE is a professional sports bettor that makes a solid living betting sports. Her father was one of the biggest bookies in the country and she is sharp. She stops by me everyday LOL and we talk games and sports. She even has me doing fantasy football this year because she claims I know match-ups to the "T". She plays in the NFL ONE GAME A WEEK. Exhibition she bet two games 2-0 and in the NFL regular season she is 9-1. She is 11-1 but she bets more money on her one game than I bet on my four or five games. The one game philosophy has worked wonders for her. Last Tuesday she stopped by me and asked me who I liked. I told her I liked Dallas, Denver, Green Bay, and loved Philly on Monday night. I told her I might add Atlanta which I did. She said she was pounding Denver, another easy winner for her. As I said we talk everyday and her one game a week philosophy works wonders for her. Maybe it will do you justice.
Good Luck THE REST OF THE WAY!!! (notice how I said REST OF THE WAY )
Yours in Winners
BernieV
More advice from a bust out loser in life. QOH if this bust out is one of your mentors I can see why you are having a hard time. And Bernie what is the best way ? Do tell us !
