Glad you took advantage of that. The lions were outscored the last 3 weeks of the season 49-13 and 7 of those 13 points were garbage points. I knew that play was coming 6 days before the game started. Lions were declining in 2nd half adjustments down the stretch. I love finding those teams who can not make the 2nd H adjustments. Clev is the worst. It was Minnesota 2 years ago. $$ in the bank when they can be identified early.
Have you ever found some really good information and decided to follow it for many years ?
I posted an article 6 years ago and have been following it every since.
I polished it a little bit for this week ( wild card round ) just to show that its still conclusive but not as potent.
Post #4
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=886143&highlight=
01-06-2012, 08:04 AM
My personal opinion after verification is that it is magnified.
I posted an article 6 years ago and have been following it every since.
I polished it a little bit for this week ( wild card round ) just to show that its still conclusive but not as potent.
Post #4
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=886143&highlight=
01-06-2012, 08:04 AM
There was a study done in 2007 involving all playoff games and playoff implications as early as week #13.The study was broken down into different segments .I have a little bit of a hard time understanding exactly what the time frames were from each but the point is still delivered. The results are amazing. They are the only results that I have ever seen hit in the 80% range consistently no matter how you slice it. I am not talking about exotic trends pertaining to a team who scored less than 10 off a bye week or who was a dog the week before and committed 3 turnovers facing a team who scored 17 + in the second half the previous week. I am talking about simple facts that have nothing to do with exotic trends. Don’t get me wrong, I respect SDQL but I have researched those statements and I have yet to find any trend that is 19-0. What I am going to show you below is not 19-0. It is 80% over and over and is easily verified. This is not my research but I have verified it. I don’t trust anyone. I verify everything that gets my attention.
Quantifying home field advantage in a particular league can be pretty tricky. Quantifying home field advantage in the postseason is even trickier, at least in the NFL, because the home team is almost always the better team. Since the merger the home team is 214-96 in playoff games, a decisive 69% winning percentage. (I am, of course, only counting the games where there really was a home team. That is, Super Bowls have been excluded.) But how much of that advantage is due to the home field and how much of it is due to the presumably superior quality of the team on that home field?
Prior to the 2002 NFC Championship Game, in which the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs beat the Eagles, I ran some numbers and discovered that in playoff games where the two teams had the same record, the home team enjoyed almost no advantage at all. Since the merger, home teams are just 32-28 in such games. But if the home team has a better record, the advantage seems to magnify very quickly. Here is a chart showing the records of home teams in playoff games against teams whose records were N games worse. For instance, the "1" line indicates that when the home team has a record that is one game better than the road team, the home team is 67-38.
-3 0- 1 0.000
-2 3- 3 0.500
-1 5- 3 0.625
0 32-28 0.533
1 67-38 0.638
2 51-14 0.785
3 29- 4 0.879
4 17- 4 0.810
5 8- 1 0.889
6 2- 0 1.000
Here is the same chart, showing only games since 1993:
-2 1- 1 0.500
-1 2- 1 0.667
0 9-10 0.474
1 33-18 0.647
2 29- 5 0.853
3 10- 2 0.833
4 3- 2 0.600
5 3- 0 1.000
6 1- 0 1.000
The pattern is the same: home teams are only about a 50/50 bet if the teams have the same record or if the home team has a worse record, home teams win about 65% of the time if they are one game better than the visitor, and home teams two or more games better almost never lose (46-9 since 1993). I would have expected the data to be a little smoother than that, maybe 56%, 62%, and 73% or something like that.
Let's compare these numbers to the regular season. I'll look at weeks 13 and 14; that's early enough that almost all teams still have something to play for, but late enough that the at-the-time records have a similar meaning to the records of playoff teams. Here are the results, first for all games since 1970 (compare this table to the first one at the top of the post):
0 60-47 0.561
1 62-35 0.639
2 54-33 0.621
3 44-15 0.746
4 38- 8 0.826
Now for only the games since 1993 (compare this table to the second one):
0 28-25 0.528
1 28-14 0.667
2 26-15 0.634
3 20- 7 0.741
4 20- 3 0.870
The big difference is with teams that have a 2-or-more-game advantage in the records. Based on these data, it appears that the home field doesn't necessarily confer an advantage in the playoffs. Instead, it magnifies whatever advantage is already there. Is this a statistical fluke, or is there something real here?
Quantifying home field advantage in a particular league can be pretty tricky. Quantifying home field advantage in the postseason is even trickier, at least in the NFL, because the home team is almost always the better team. Since the merger the home team is 214-96 in playoff games, a decisive 69% winning percentage. (I am, of course, only counting the games where there really was a home team. That is, Super Bowls have been excluded.) But how much of that advantage is due to the home field and how much of it is due to the presumably superior quality of the team on that home field?
Prior to the 2002 NFC Championship Game, in which the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs beat the Eagles, I ran some numbers and discovered that in playoff games where the two teams had the same record, the home team enjoyed almost no advantage at all. Since the merger, home teams are just 32-28 in such games. But if the home team has a better record, the advantage seems to magnify very quickly. Here is a chart showing the records of home teams in playoff games against teams whose records were N games worse. For instance, the "1" line indicates that when the home team has a record that is one game better than the road team, the home team is 67-38.
-3 0- 1 0.000
-2 3- 3 0.500
-1 5- 3 0.625
0 32-28 0.533
1 67-38 0.638
2 51-14 0.785
3 29- 4 0.879
4 17- 4 0.810
5 8- 1 0.889
6 2- 0 1.000
Here is the same chart, showing only games since 1993:
-2 1- 1 0.500
-1 2- 1 0.667
0 9-10 0.474
1 33-18 0.647
2 29- 5 0.853
3 10- 2 0.833
4 3- 2 0.600
5 3- 0 1.000
6 1- 0 1.000
The pattern is the same: home teams are only about a 50/50 bet if the teams have the same record or if the home team has a worse record, home teams win about 65% of the time if they are one game better than the visitor, and home teams two or more games better almost never lose (46-9 since 1993). I would have expected the data to be a little smoother than that, maybe 56%, 62%, and 73% or something like that.
Let's compare these numbers to the regular season. I'll look at weeks 13 and 14; that's early enough that almost all teams still have something to play for, but late enough that the at-the-time records have a similar meaning to the records of playoff teams. Here are the results, first for all games since 1970 (compare this table to the first one at the top of the post):
0 60-47 0.561
1 62-35 0.639
2 54-33 0.621
3 44-15 0.746
4 38- 8 0.826
Now for only the games since 1993 (compare this table to the second one):
0 28-25 0.528
1 28-14 0.667
2 26-15 0.634
3 20- 7 0.741
4 20- 3 0.870
The big difference is with teams that have a 2-or-more-game advantage in the records. Based on these data, it appears that the home field doesn't necessarily confer an advantage in the playoffs. Instead, it magnifies whatever advantage is already there. Is this a statistical fluke, or is there something real here?
My personal opinion after verification is that it is magnified.
Just the Wild Card rounds for the last 5 years.
2011
(9-7-0)
Bengals
10
(10-6-0)
Texans
31 (-4)
$ Covered
(10-6-0)
Lions
28
(13-3-0)
Saints 45 (-10’)
$$$ Covered
(10-6-0)
Falcons
2
(9-7-0)
Giants
24 (-3)
H win and cover
(12-4-0)
Steelers
23
(8-8-0)
Broncos
29 (+7’)
H win and cover
2012
(10-6-0)
Bengals
13
(12-4-0)
Texans
19 (-4)
$$ Covered
(10-6-0)
Vikings
10
(11-5-0)
Packers
24 (-10’)
$ Covered
(11-5-0)
Colts
9
(10-6-0)
Ravens
24 (-7’)
Home win and cover
(11-5-0)
Seahawks
24
(10-6-0)
Redskins
14 (+3)
Home loss No cover
2013
(11-5-0)
Chiefs
44
(11-5-0)
Colts
45 (+1’)
Home win and cover same record
(11-5-0)
Saints
26
(10-6-0)
Eagles
24 (-3)
Home loss no cover
(9-7-0)
Chargers
27
(11-5-0)
Bengals
10 (-6’)
Home loss no cover
(12-4-0)
49ers
23
(8-7-1)
Packers
20 (+3)
Home push
2014
(11-5-0)
Cardinals
16
(7-8-1)
Panthers
27 (-5’)
Home win and cover
(10-6-0)
Ravens
30
(11-5-0)
Steelers
17 (-3)
Home loss No cover
(10-5-1)
Bengals
10
(11-5-0)
Colts
26 (-3’)
$ Home win and cover
(11-5-0)
Lions
20
(12-4-0)
Cowboys
24 (-6)
Home win no cover
2015
(11-5-0)
Chiefs
30
(9-7-0)
Texans
0 (+3)
Home loss no cover
(10-6-0)
Steelers
18
(12-4-0)
Bengals
16 (+2)
$$ Home push
(10-6-0)
Seahawks
10
(11-5-0)
Vikings
9 (+4’)
$ Home win and cover
(10-6-0)
Packers
35
(9-7-0)
Redskins
18 (-1’)
Home loss no cover
2011
(9-7-0)
Bengals
10
(10-6-0)
Texans
31 (-4)
$ Covered
(10-6-0)
Lions
28
(13-3-0)
Saints 45 (-10’)
$$$ Covered
(10-6-0)
Falcons
2
(9-7-0)
Giants
24 (-3)
H win and cover
(12-4-0)
Steelers
23
(8-8-0)
Broncos
29 (+7’)
H win and cover
2012
(10-6-0)
Bengals
13
(12-4-0)
Texans
19 (-4)
$$ Covered
(10-6-0)
Vikings
10
(11-5-0)
Packers
24 (-10’)
$ Covered
(11-5-0)
Colts
9
(10-6-0)
Ravens
24 (-7’)
Home win and cover
(11-5-0)
Seahawks
24
(10-6-0)
Redskins
14 (+3)
Home loss No cover
2013
(11-5-0)
Chiefs
44
(11-5-0)
Colts
45 (+1’)
Home win and cover same record
(11-5-0)
Saints
26
(10-6-0)
Eagles
24 (-3)
Home loss no cover
(9-7-0)
Chargers
27
(11-5-0)
Bengals
10 (-6’)
Home loss no cover
(12-4-0)
49ers
23
(8-7-1)
Packers
20 (+3)
Home push
2014
(11-5-0)
Cardinals
16
(7-8-1)
Panthers
27 (-5’)
Home win and cover
(10-6-0)
Ravens
30
(11-5-0)
Steelers
17 (-3)
Home loss No cover
(10-5-1)
Bengals
10
(11-5-0)
Colts
26 (-3’)
$ Home win and cover
(11-5-0)
Lions
20
(12-4-0)
Cowboys
24 (-6)
Home win no cover
2015
(11-5-0)
Chiefs
30
(9-7-0)
Texans
0 (+3)
Home loss no cover
(10-6-0)
Steelers
18
(12-4-0)
Bengals
16 (+2)
$$ Home push
(10-6-0)
Seahawks
10
(11-5-0)
Vikings
9 (+4’)
$ Home win and cover
(10-6-0)
Packers
35
(9-7-0)
Redskins
18 (-1’)
Home loss no cover
