Dude everyone has losing streaks. You can pull out!! One play at a time. A good friend of mine always says, "Dude, if you had to eat today and your only option was to acquire $$$ through a sports bet, what would be your play". All you can do is put in the work bro, the results will work themselves out.
Motor City hit the nail on the head here. 95% of all games (covering or not) come down to a subjective call, a fumble or pick that ends up in the wrong hands, a missed or made FG and other in-game variances that NOBODY on the planet can predict. If you look through stats, you are wasting your time because in game variances dictate the outcome, nothing more, nothing less and it is why you must play value and let the chips fall here they may.....
For QOH or anyone to say something like: Everything that I have says the Jets are loaded and go get your money, is bordering on preposterous because the numbers mean FUCK ALL. Anyone that has watched the Jets and KC play this year would come to the conclusion that the game itself is a no-brainer in the Jets favor. The Jets look very good while the Chiefs look like rat shit but that's not how this works. If the better team won and covered every game, we would all be rich. We're not because just like MOTOR said, it is all luck, every sport, which s why it is so hard to predict winners. To predicate a play on stats, records or trends will land you in the same waters as the rest of the losers out there. MOTOR City's comments are the most intelligent comments I have ever seen in this forum over the past 13 years that I've been coming here. Find value, play it and hope for the best. Nothing else matters.
Well said. This is exactly how I came up with my name In2ition. I don't do stats, trends or any of that bullshit. I mean I might take a little into consideration but that's not what's the deciding factor in my selections. Like you said, if it was up to the best stats than we would get every pick right. Would be a no brainer. But we all know that's not the case. I knew Chiefs were gonna beat the shit out of the Jets. I just knew it. But I also knew that the 49ers were gonna upset the Seahawks. That's what's so great about Capping. You're making a pick on the unknown. Nobody knows. Everyone's just acting like they do. And that is with everything in the world as well.
betting on a football game has got nothing to do with football......it does not matter who passes better or runs better or kicks better or defends better because a pointspread is involved.......when the pointspread is involved it becomes a contest between bettors.......and in the contest between bettors about the only thing you know is that most of them are going to lose.......that's how they pay the light bill in Las Vegas
There are a few little things you can do to sort of tip the odds in your favor a little bit........Miami has been mentioned here.......I have a sort of rule of thumb about Miami.....it is bad at home....good on the road......
let's go back to 2006 Mia as HF is 23/22 SU and 13/31/1 ATS .295
..............................Mia as RD is 22/43 SU and 35/27/3 ATS .565.........but you can go all the way back to 1985 and it will be similar......it's who they are
when Miami opens as a 7.5 HF is is bet up to -10 even the Cleveland Browns start looking good to me
All teams have their own tendencies of where they are good or bad sometimes they work sometimes they don't......San Diego was 11/1 ATS at Indianapolis till yesterday
There are a few little things you can do to sort of tip the odds in your favor a little bit........Miami has been mentioned here.......I have a sort of rule of thumb about Miami.....it is bad at home....good on the road......
let's go back to 2006 Mia as HF is 23/22 SU and 13/31/1 ATS .295
..............................Mia as RD is 22/43 SU and 35/27/3 ATS .565.........but you can go all the way back to 1985 and it will be similar......it's who they are
when Miami opens as a 7.5 HF is is bet up to -10 even the Cleveland Browns start looking good to me
All teams have their own tendencies of where they are good or bad sometimes they work sometimes they don't......San Diego was 11/1 ATS at Indianapolis till yesterday
Very true, Yesterday Miami runs it in from the 11 in OT instead of kicking, KC gets a pick 6 in the closing minute as the guy weaves through the Jets to score a meaning less TD instead of just going down and Indy hits a bomb when a first down would have set up the Winning FG.
Each case killed 2H bets that were winners before the unusual events who handicaps for that?
All you can do is wait for the ones that go your way and balance thing out ..... How come they never seem to come as often!
I've been saying this for years. You can "cap", "crunch numbers", "study stats", etc. all you want. In the end it is a crap shoot. You may increase your odds slightly by "studying numbers" or whatever. How can you "cap" a fumble or an interception? How can you "cap" a bad call? How can you "cap" a team that's not interested? It all comes down to luck.........make a pick and pray, lol. Some people "cap" a game and even come up with "I have it capped at 31-24", lol. In the end, it's just pure luck. This is just my personal opinion.
Yore not capping a game simply using stats, number crunching ect. There's intuition involved yes. But guys who are statistically NFL bookie burners? It's more than intuition. It's capping those events that are mentioned that happen. information also helps cap those games. The number one driver of most teams winning each week? Money. Which is the team with the most money bet on? How can I find info to help me out? And what do I look at to make that predetermined selection? There are systems in place where offense lines Dlines QBs and coaching ect don't mean shit.
