you have to remember that Purdue guards the perimeter just as good if not better. Plus that is Duke strength shooting the 3. While Purdue relies on it they have a more diverse offense. They also have stronger post presences, and the one factor that will decide the game HOME COURT ADVANTAGE.
home court in cbb is the most decisive advantage you will find in all of sports. Home court means everything in games such as these. I have said it plenty of times. Not just b/c of the momentum and adrenaline that is gained from screaming fans, but home teams always shoot at a higher % at home. The familiarity with shooting on the rims, background, depth perception, etc, etc, means everything. Teams like Duke that can't score easily down low, that rely on jump shots are hard to count on coming through on the road for the factors I listed above. I think tonight will be a prime example of just how important home court advantage is in cbb. I have made my money betting home dogs, or home teams in general in this sport over the years. I know for a fact that there is a huge advantage to playing at home and wagering on home teams. I don't think Purdue is getting credit for just how good they really are. This team has far less holes than Duke, and playing at home is icing on the cake.
Bingo, bingo, bingo.
Besides, I really think Purdue is the better team here to begin with. Like you said, home court is just icing on the cake.
One other thing -- people outside the Midwest don't realize how tough it is to play in Mackey Arena when Purdue has a solid squad. Fans are right on top of the action. Lastly -- we all know that Duke gets everyone's best shot... Purdue wins this one by 8-10.