More on your thoughts later but for now I'll try to explain the situation.
I use the same strategy for all sports which is to start off with Games where the Books make it tight EG 1/2 Goal, 3pts NFL, 4pts NBA etc. The reason for this is that while Books make mistakes on heavy Favourites they can still win while the nearer to EVENS then their mistakes are penalised. Once these games have been selected I price them up to their true line on Monday then log the average and best prices on Monday as the Books open. I do the same on Wednesday and Thursday and by then I have a fair idea how the line has arrived at this point.
By Thursday its fairly common knowledge what the teams are going to be and any problems outstanding so a reasonable opinion can be made concerning the line, this is where the hard work starts and knowledge of the Sport comes in. Basically the Books move the line for reasons I call tangible and intangible, tangible relates to physical things like injuries, suspensions and common perception whereas intangibles relate to situations, tactics and any unknown reason. If the line movement can be vindicated by tangible reasons then a reassessment can be made to see whether there is any value left and be acted on accordingly, however if its intangible, in other words none of the tangible reasons then the Books lean is to be respected if not blindly followed.
So from a personal point, my problem is that while I can bring this to a Thursday with valid lines, movement and leans, I am ignorant as to 1) how important the tangible reasons are, and 2) If there are indeed any in the game. This is where I need the input from Posters how have their finger on the pulse so to speak. take the WIGAN -BIRMINGHAM game for example
True Line: Wigan 2.26 Brum 3.78 Draw 3.43
monday: Wigan 2.2 Brum 3.75 Draw 3.25
wednes: Wigan 2.18 Brum 3.95 Draw 3.31
Thurs: Wigan 2.2 Brum 3.95 Draw 3.35
As I said earlier the Books lean is to Wigan while the other Two drift, is there a tangible reason for this? Brum has two injuries but Wigan have Two suspended so does it really affect the Betting? thats the input I need not particularly an opinion on the outcome of the Game if you see what I mean. If nobody can come up with a tangible reason then the oddsmakers see something nobody else is and therefor worth following. Wigan does have a big advantage in recent form but the betting doesnt really show it, so with that and no other info coming in Wigan would be the Bet. now it would be just a formality of finding the best valued bet, 1X2, Asian, Correct score etc.
Hope thats clear enough and remember, We have all Week to analyise 2-4 Games before making a call on Friday or Saturday. :drink:
