Predicted Outcome Of Election...

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Tommy,

Are you seriously suggesting every one of us would be dead if Bush wasn't in office? Man you must love Dick Cheney, sounds like something he would say.
 

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If I knew for sure the independents will break 2:1 for Kerry I would place a bet on Kerry at plus money. Here is a stat that will make you think maybe Bush will win. Since 1960 only 2 candidates have won the presidency with a less than favorable opinion than his opponent in the polls. Reagan in `80 and Kennedy in `60. Another important fact, and this is huge. We are at war with terrorism, with troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. I doubt the independents are going to break 2:1 for Kerry.
 

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uh oh Shrinkage from the site today Sir


Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 264 Bush 264



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[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]RealClearPolitics Electoral Count
[/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Friday, October 22: Bush 227 - Kerry 189
(270 Electoral Votes Needed to Win)
[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]RCP Electoral Map | Battleground State Polls, Averages | Send This Page to a Friend
10/8: Updated Electoral Count Analysis
[/font]
[/font]


<HR>[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/21: MI - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 189)
10/20: NH - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 206)
10/19: MN - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 210)
10/18: FL - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 220)
10/17: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 220)
10/17: NH - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 254 - Kerry 241)
10/17: WI - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 237)
10/13: MN - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 237)
10/12: OR - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 227)
Earlier Switches
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this is creepy dante. you are one of the ones who has been repeating how close this will be. florida seems to teeter back and forth with every new poll that comes out.

11 more days and this will be over and done with
 

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yes Rob it could get UGLY with lawyers fighting for a few votes....it could be that close
 

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Good work Dante as those two sites are clearly amongst the fairest in my opinion....

In fact, the one run by Democrats had this to say today...

When I pointed out that Bush's hometown paper had endorsed Kerry, I said that if Kerry's hometown paper endorsed Bush I would mention it. Well, true to my word, the Boston Herald has endorsed Bush.

Bottom Line is that it's a very close race and impossible to call at this point, so taking 3-2 odds or better is of VALUE, period...

P.S

Sad but True...

A new study from the University of Maryland supports the thesis that Kerry and Bush supporters apparently live in different universes, complete with different facts and probably different laws of physics. Bush supporters believe it is a fact that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction; Kerry supporters don't. Bush supporters believe Saddam was supporting al Qaeda; Kerry supporters don't. Bush supporters believe most people in other countries approve of the war in Iraq; Kerry supporters don't. Read it for yourself.

THE SHRINK
 

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A new study from the University of Maryland supports the thesis that Kerry and Bush supporters apparently live in different universes, complete with different facts and probably different laws of physics.
couldnt agree more with this. the two are galaxys apart in what they think regarding issues.
 

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I want Mrs. Kerry to PROMISE us that ketchup prices will not rise if her husband is elected top Gun. Man I hot dogs are a major part of my diet and I use either sweet relish (That's also Heinz or their ketchup). And I know DAMM well if the CEO's at Heinz have to pay more in taxes under JK---than I will pay more for ketchup and sweet relish!!!!

I've heard no mention of relish or ketchup prices during the debates. And by George---most Americans like something on their hot dogs---even Heinz mustard once and awhile!!!!:discuss:
 

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AP Poll: Bush, Kerry in Tie Before Election
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<!-- TextStart -->By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Many voters are dissatisfied with President Bush (news - web sites)'s job performance but uneasy about Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites)'s ability to protect the nation, according to an Associated Press poll that found the two presidential candidates locked in a tie.



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<SMALL>Latest Headlines:</SMALL> </CENTER><!-- recent_timestamp 1098453518 565 secs not stale 28800 secs --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width="1%">·</TD><TD width="99%">Poll: Bush, Kerry in Tie Before Election

AP - 9 minutes ago

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AP - 18 minutes ago

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AFP - 25 minutes ago

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"The country is looking for a real leader — an FDR or a Kennedy," said Warren Hutchinson, an independent from Massachusetts who leans toward Kerry. "There don't seem to be any on the horizon."



Many voters believe Bush is better qualified to protect the country — an important attribute for an electorate very focused on national security. A majority consider Kerry indecisive, less solid on national security. But Kerry is seen as stronger on creating jobs.



Neither candidate has been able to gain a clear advantage. In the survey of 976 likely voters, Democrats Kerry and Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) had 49 percent, compared to 46 percent for Republicans Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites). That's within the margin of error of 3 percentage points for the poll conducted Oct. 18-20.



Many polls out recently show the race even, and some show Bush slightly up.



Almost one in five, 17 percent, of voters remain the target of nonstop campaigning by Bush and Kerry, the AP-Ipsos poll found. These persuadable voters say they're undecided or are tentatively backing a candidate while remaining open to changing their minds.



They are more likely than others to disapprove of Bush's job performance and believe invading Iraq (news - web sites) was a mistake. And they are more likely than other voters to believe the nation is on the wrong track, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.



More in this group lean toward Kerry than Bush. But persuadable voters backing Kerry are more likely to switch sides than those backing Bush and they're more likely to trust Bush than Kerry to protect the nation.



"Kerry spent his whole time in the debates saying, 'your president has not done this or done that,' instead of saying what he would do as president," said Laurie Anusvkiewicz, a businesswoman from Beckley, W. Va.



Some surveys have found that a majority of voters saying they're concerned about the risks of changing presidents at a time of terrorist threats and war.



"I'm pretty sure I'll vote for Kerry," said Mary Anne Connolly of Middletowne, N.J. "It's more that I don't want Bush. I'm still not comfortable with Kerry. I'm not sure he's real strong on foreign policy."



Despite doubts about Kerry on national security and strength of leadership, Bush hasn't been able to pull away from the Democrat.



Less than half of likely voters in the AP-Ipsos poll, 47 percent, approve of Bush's job performance. A rating below 50 percent spells trouble for any incumbent, and the president hasn't been above that threshold since before the first debate.



Some 56 percent of likely voters believe the nation is on the wrong track, another warning sign. By an 18-point margin, voters believe Kerry would be best at creating jobs. They are evenly split on who would do the best job on Iraq.



The president fares better on national security issues like terrorism. A majority of likely voters approve of Bush's handling of the war on terror and foreign policy. By 7 percentage points, more believe he would do a better job than Kerry of protecting the country; Bush had a 23-point advantage in March.



Mark Silva, 56, of Redding, Calif., has his problems with Bush, but definitely doesn't like Kerry. "I guess we're stuck with Bush," he said.



Among the poll's other findings:

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_ Twenty-four percent say they have already voted or will cast ballots before Election Day. Those who voted early were just as likely to back Kerry as Bush.

_ A third of likely voters have been contacted by a candidate, campaign or outside group seeking support. About as many said they were asked to vote for Bush as for Kerry.

_About three-fourths of likely voters said they have seen ads for Bush and ads for Kerry in the last week.

The steady crossfire of attacks on the air waves has worn out the patience of James Bates, a 44-year-old independent from Reno, Nev.

"I'm sick of all this innuendo, all this untrue stuff," Bates said. "It has no basis in fact. Both sides are guilty of it — it's a crime."

___

AP Political Writer Ron Fournier and Trevor Tompson, manager of news surveys, contributed to this story.
 

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i guess I will post here since my thread was moved for some reason that is beyond me to the politic forum. Again no consistency and it is a crock of **** but anyway.

How in the hell can you liberals say that electoral-vote.com is fair when he has Iowa listed as a leans Kerry state when he is getting his ass kicked in every poll that comes out? I want to hear your Kerry like spins on this subject. Lets hear it liberal. Didnt think you could come with anything.
 

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Royal,in my estimation,the polls mean nothing.I will wait for election results,because that's all that really matter. I have to think that Jr is somewhat concerned at this point.
 

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Judge Wapner said:
Royal,in my estimation,the polls mean nothing.I will wait for election results,because that's all that really matter. I have to think that Jr is somewhat concerned at this point.
Tell that to shrink then when he posts this sight all the time. That isn't the point of my comment. The point was that it is liberal and it isn't accurate. Still waiting for the liberals to defend the sight. Come on guys. Oh that is right you can't.
 
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Just as with sports betting against, whatever The Shrink "guarantees" is money in the bank the other way. 330 electoral votes and a 6% spread. By the time another Democrat gets in there, the only country left to invade will be Canada. Hopefully Jeb will bomb the **** out of Peep's bunker. :toothless
 

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May not be important, may be it ...


Neglected Hawaii Emerges As Swing State


HONOLULU - [size=-1]Often dismissed as too small, too isolated and too Democratic to worry about in presidential contests, Hawaii suddenly has a close race. Democrats say Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) still has an edge over President Bush (news - web sites) in the contest for Hawaii's four electoral votes, but the race has become awfully tight for their comfort. With late poll closings — 11 p.m. EST on Nov. 2 — and a slow count, Hawaii politicians are talking about offering a dramatic conclusion to what could be an ultra-close national election.[/size]

"We may make the difference," said Linda Chu Takayama, campaign manager for Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye (news, bio, voting record), who is all but assured of victory in his own race for an eighth term. "Surprise, surprise. The polls I've seen show it up and down but always within the margin of error." The only statewide media poll, more than two months ago, showed Kerry leading Bush, 48-41. Private polling reviewed by strategists for both Kerry and Bush more recently suggests the race is still that close.

Hawaii may not be a big-vote, difference-making tossup state like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, but the race is remarkable in a state Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) won by 20 percentage points in 2000 — and one that has been solid blue on most election maps. Democratic strategists in Washington privately admit they have neglected Hawaii, but no more. They have dispatched political operatives to shore up Kerry's support and believe the race is now about as close as Washington state and Oregon, two long-standing battlegrounds that both parties think are leaning toward Kerry.

Open campaigning for the presidency is just getting started in the islands. The first major rally for Kerry and Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) was Friday near the state Capitol. Campaign signs for Bush and vice presidential candidate Dick Cheney (news - web sites) are just now popping up along roadsides. Local candidates in leis line major thoroughfares and freeway entrances with their own signs in Hawaii's colorful honk-and-wave style of campaigning. But during the campaign no major national political figure, much less Bush or Kerry, has set foot in the state, 4,800 miles from Washington.

"They're going to rely on us to carry the election here," said Republican Gov. Linda Lingle. Ronald Reagan (news - web sites) and Richard Nixon are the only GOP presidential candidates ever to win Hawaii's vote. They, like Bush, were running for second terms. Republicans say Bush has been helped by cable television ads running in the islands, where cable viewership is high. Bush and his party have outspent Kerry $17 million to $5 million on national cable TV ads that include Hawaii.

Also, with the tourism industry recovering from the Sept. 11 attacks, Hawaii's unemployment rate is 3.1 percent, lowest in the nation. And Republicans say they're doing better than expected among the state's large number of veterans. On the other hand, Democratic Sen. Inouye told The Associated Press while campaigning on Oahu this week that anger over the deployment of a disproportionate number of National Guard troops from Hawaii, the state's highest-in-the-nation gasoline prices and Bush's support for gun legislation are factors that help Kerry. Also, Ralph Nader (news - web sites) failed to submit enough valid signatures to be included on the ballot this year as an independent after winning 6 percent in 2000 running on the Green Party ticket.

Lingle, elected in 2002 as the state's first Republican governor in four decades, has campaigned with Bush on the mainland and has traveled to Iraq (news - web sites) to boost state support for the war and the 10,000 Hawaii-based troops in Iraq and Afghanistan (news - web sites). At home, Lingle has played Bush surrogate for weeks as she campaigns for Republicans to wrest control of the Hawaii House. On the Democratic side, Inouye said, "Every day I'm talking about Kerry. It's going to be close but not as close as people think."

Former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, who lost the 2002 gubernatorial race to Lingle, said the Democrats weren't assuming anything this time. Hirono, head of Hawaii Women for Kerry-Edwards, said, "I've heard the Republicans say they're going to deliver Hawaii for Bush. Well, maybe they're taking Hawaii for granted, but we're not." Said Republican Party Chairman Brennon Morioka: "Every indication that we have is that it's almost a dead heat right now."
 

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mmm

In my opinion the people who have divided up the USA are the ones in the Whitehouse.

The USA & the World was behind them in Afghanistan. Then we had Guantanemo bay which would be ok in Communist USSR but is not my idea of democracy, most of the guys in there are guilty of being in the wrong place in the wrong time.

Then we went into Iraq under false pretences, at the time I said to my hardline friends that the weapons of mass destruction were imaginary and nothing I've seen since then has changed my mind.

In my country Blair had the whole country behind him in 2001 and the only reason he'll get back in next year is the opposition are useless. I campaigned for Labour in 1997 and now I won't even be voting for them unless they kick Blair out before the election.

So not only has Bush divided up the USA. Thanks to him, his lackey Blair has divided up the UK too.

I will not vote for incompetent people, regardless of their party. So despite the fact that my local Labour MP is an excellent guy I will not vote for him if Blair is still running us when the election comes.
 

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