Don't know much about horses, but if this is just an odds question.....
You would be clearly much better off taking the +450 now. If Smarty goes off Saturday at 6/5 or 8/5 as everyone thinks... and wins... would have to be even money at the Belmont.
I am a little confused though. You mention "sweeping the triple crown". Smarty Jones is the only horse in that position... so you are saying the prop is " Smarty Jones to win the triple crown at +450"?
Hope this helps. Again, strictly a math analysis.
You would be clearly much better off taking the +450 now. If Smarty goes off Saturday at 6/5 or 8/5 as everyone thinks... and wins... would have to be even money at the Belmont.
I am a little confused though. You mention "sweeping the triple crown". Smarty Jones is the only horse in that position... so you are saying the prop is " Smarty Jones to win the triple crown at +450"?
Hope this helps. Again, strictly a math analysis.
then I Okay here we go Hi-Ho Pimlico.
Let's start buy evaluating the horse.
1.Lion Heart- no guess work here.He will be gunned out of the 1 hole.Been a great horse so far.The last part of the Derby he wa not running very fast.has a big shot here.Less distance and not much legit speed here.Only problem is he will be bet way down.
2.Borrego-Was my last throw out in Derby so naturally atracts my interest.If yoo throw the Derby out,may not have liked the mud,he figures here.In Ark derb,kept close to S.Jones.has shown the ability to stay close to the pace at times.Will need to do so here.Great recent work out.Took a lot ogf money at Churchill,expect him to be overlooked here.I will have sopmething on him.a
3.Little Matth Man-Slow,plodder.Serious contender for last.Shouldn't be here.At least probably won't get in anyone else's way.
4.Cliff's Edge-Condition and pace are the big factors here.Even if he does run the foot problem bothers me.There should be some place but probably not enough for the deep closers.{SCRATCHED}
5.Swong of the Sword-Decent horse.Didn't like him in Derby and don't like him here.Just don't think he rates with the top here.
6.Sir Shackleton.Don't care what Zito says this horse has all the makings of a rabbit.He should keep the early fractions somewhat legit.Don't see him being close at the end.
7.Smarty Jones.What can you say.Has just done everything right.Just remember,he is a 3 year old horse and not a machine.Sooner or later will throw in a bad one.May not be here though.Preakness should suit his running style well.Please note that his Derby time was not all that great.I don't view him as a super star.............yet.Odds are goona be very short.
8.Imperialism.Ran a very nice race in Derby despite a rough trip.Either the jock is gonna have to get him running earlier are there are gonna have to be some fast fractions.Could get up for a piece.
9.Eddington-talented horse and gets Bailey.Has a versatile running style which should help here.Very nice breeding.Is he fast enough?I think he is.If you get a solid price on him,worth a shot.Watch the tote board.
10. Rock Hard Ten-very nice horse who I expect to make a lot of noise in the fall.Would really like to have seen him run in the Derby Trial.Hard to win Preakness off of only 3 races and a month and a half layoff.Maybe worth a shot if you get long odds,but don't see that happening.Should help press pace .
11.Water Cannon-Will have to go for lead out of 11 hole.This is the other one who doesn't belong here.Should batlle Little for last.However this one may bother some other horses.
Let's start buy evaluating the horse.
1.Lion Heart- no guess work here.He will be gunned out of the 1 hole.Been a great horse so far.The last part of the Derby he wa not running very fast.has a big shot here.Less distance and not much legit speed here.Only problem is he will be bet way down.
2.Borrego-Was my last throw out in Derby so naturally atracts my interest.If yoo throw the Derby out,may not have liked the mud,he figures here.In Ark derb,kept close to S.Jones.has shown the ability to stay close to the pace at times.Will need to do so here.Great recent work out.Took a lot ogf money at Churchill,expect him to be overlooked here.I will have sopmething on him.a
3.Little Matth Man-Slow,plodder.Serious contender for last.Shouldn't be here.At least probably won't get in anyone else's way.
4.Cliff's Edge-Condition and pace are the big factors here.Even if he does run the foot problem bothers me.There should be some place but probably not enough for the deep closers.{SCRATCHED}
5.Swong of the Sword-Decent horse.Didn't like him in Derby and don't like him here.Just don't think he rates with the top here.
6.Sir Shackleton.Don't care what Zito says this horse has all the makings of a rabbit.He should keep the early fractions somewhat legit.Don't see him being close at the end.
7.Smarty Jones.What can you say.Has just done everything right.Just remember,he is a 3 year old horse and not a machine.Sooner or later will throw in a bad one.May not be here though.Preakness should suit his running style well.Please note that his Derby time was not all that great.I don't view him as a super star.............yet.Odds are goona be very short.
8.Imperialism.Ran a very nice race in Derby despite a rough trip.Either the jock is gonna have to get him running earlier are there are gonna have to be some fast fractions.Could get up for a piece.
9.Eddington-talented horse and gets Bailey.Has a versatile running style which should help here.Very nice breeding.Is he fast enough?I think he is.If you get a solid price on him,worth a shot.Watch the tote board.
10. Rock Hard Ten-very nice horse who I expect to make a lot of noise in the fall.Would really like to have seen him run in the Derby Trial.Hard to win Preakness off of only 3 races and a month and a half layoff.Maybe worth a shot if you get long odds,but don't see that happening.Should help press pace .
11.Water Cannon-Will have to go for lead out of 11 hole.This is the other one who doesn't belong here.Should batlle Little for last.However this one may bother some other horses.
Okay,now as to how the race will be run.And they're off.Lion heart goes straight to the lead,followed by Sir Shackleton and Water Cannon.Right off of them is Eddington,smarty Jones and Rock Hard Ten.A little further back is Sword of the Song and Borrego.At the back is Imperialism and LittleMatth man.
At the half Lion Heart on the lead running comfortably think early fractions will be around 47.2.
At the far turn Lion Heart still running on lead followed by Rock Hard Ten,Smarty Jones abd Eddington.Borrego is starting to pick it up and Imperialism is moving from the back of the pack.
Top of the stretch,still lion heart.Smarty Jones is trying to cut into his lead.Followed by Eddington,and Borrego.Imperialism is try to make up ground,
At the finish,it's Lion Heart followed by Borego,then Smarty Jones,Eddington and Imperialism.
As to betting.I wil play a cold exacta Lion Heart over Smarty.Box of Lion Heart,Borrego and Eddington.And then depending on odds atb plays on Borrego and maybe Eddington.This is subject to change depending on odds. Good luck guys.
At the half Lion Heart on the lead running comfortably think early fractions will be around 47.2.
At the far turn Lion Heart still running on lead followed by Rock Hard Ten,Smarty Jones abd Eddington.Borrego is starting to pick it up and Imperialism is moving from the back of the pack.
Top of the stretch,still lion heart.Smarty Jones is trying to cut into his lead.Followed by Eddington,and Borrego.Imperialism is try to make up ground,
At the finish,it's Lion Heart followed by Borego,then Smarty Jones,Eddington and Imperialism.
As to betting.I wil play a cold exacta Lion Heart over Smarty.Box of Lion Heart,Borrego and Eddington.And then depending on odds atb plays on Borrego and maybe Eddington.This is subject to change depending on odds. Good luck guys.
My thoughts from Saturday's Daily Racing Form (http://www.drf.com/news/article/55517.html):
Looking for value in the Preakness
As a handicapper, it's usually a good idea to go against public opinion, especially when you get inflated prices. That's why whenever I hear people - so-called experts and novices alike - saying the Preakness is shaping up as a two-horse race with Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, I start seeing dollar signs.
We have seen all year that no horses are head and withers above their generation, a la Affirmed and Alydar or Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. Yet I keep hearing people say that Smarty Jones and Lion Heart are the cream of this crop just because they dominated one race, forgetting that races in the slop often lead to lop-sided results for front-runners and offer valid excuses for closers who don't fire.
But let others feel that way, as they will be taking the worst of it odds-wise. I'm going to toss Smarty Jones completely. If he wins, I'll be cheering his performance like everyone else, but I refuse to take an underlay at 8-5 or thereabouts, and he will be used extensively in the exotic wagers, too.
The biggest overlay in the field is Water Cannon, number 11 in your program and on the saddle cloth, at a juicy 30-1 on the morning line.
Most people are saying he has no shot, especially since he usually likes the lead and is stuck with the outside post. He is also knocked because he hasn't faced the quality of competition as his peers.
I acknowledge all those points, but my feeling is that he has been running in slower races to begin with (24- or 25-second opening quarters and half-miles between 47.40 and 51 seconds), so I don't see him challenging Lion Heart or Sir Shackleton for the lead, anyway. He just has to cut over and get in that second flight with the likes of Smarty Jones, Eddington, and Rock Hard Ten.
His last win, over this track at 1 1/8 miles in the Federico Tesio on April 17, was in 1:50.50, which is just about a second slower than the major Derby preps. The fact he is the only entrant with a win - or a race of any kind - over the track certainly works in his favor.
The other thing I like is that he has won five straight races. He's a horse who knows how to win. Remind you of anyone?
At a pre-Derby seminar at the Stardust, I was asked by host John Kelly what I thought of Smarty Jones's chances. My response was something like this: "He's the type of horse I normally love. He's been dominating on a lesser-regarded circuit and now moving up to face the big boys. A lot of people discount those invaders, feeling they're of inferior quality, and you can usually get overlays. I just can't take 7-2 or 4-1 on him in an 18-horse field."
Well, Water Cannon fits the same mold, and I have no such trepidation at 30-1. I will be betting Water Cannon across the board, as well as using him up and down in the exotics with my other top contenders: Lion Heart, Imperialism, Rock Hard Ten, and Eddington.
Looking for value in the Preakness
As a handicapper, it's usually a good idea to go against public opinion, especially when you get inflated prices. That's why whenever I hear people - so-called experts and novices alike - saying the Preakness is shaping up as a two-horse race with Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, I start seeing dollar signs.
We have seen all year that no horses are head and withers above their generation, a la Affirmed and Alydar or Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. Yet I keep hearing people say that Smarty Jones and Lion Heart are the cream of this crop just because they dominated one race, forgetting that races in the slop often lead to lop-sided results for front-runners and offer valid excuses for closers who don't fire.
But let others feel that way, as they will be taking the worst of it odds-wise. I'm going to toss Smarty Jones completely. If he wins, I'll be cheering his performance like everyone else, but I refuse to take an underlay at 8-5 or thereabouts, and he will be used extensively in the exotic wagers, too.
The biggest overlay in the field is Water Cannon, number 11 in your program and on the saddle cloth, at a juicy 30-1 on the morning line.
Most people are saying he has no shot, especially since he usually likes the lead and is stuck with the outside post. He is also knocked because he hasn't faced the quality of competition as his peers.
I acknowledge all those points, but my feeling is that he has been running in slower races to begin with (24- or 25-second opening quarters and half-miles between 47.40 and 51 seconds), so I don't see him challenging Lion Heart or Sir Shackleton for the lead, anyway. He just has to cut over and get in that second flight with the likes of Smarty Jones, Eddington, and Rock Hard Ten.
His last win, over this track at 1 1/8 miles in the Federico Tesio on April 17, was in 1:50.50, which is just about a second slower than the major Derby preps. The fact he is the only entrant with a win - or a race of any kind - over the track certainly works in his favor.
The other thing I like is that he has won five straight races. He's a horse who knows how to win. Remind you of anyone?
At a pre-Derby seminar at the Stardust, I was asked by host John Kelly what I thought of Smarty Jones's chances. My response was something like this: "He's the type of horse I normally love. He's been dominating on a lesser-regarded circuit and now moving up to face the big boys. A lot of people discount those invaders, feeling they're of inferior quality, and you can usually get overlays. I just can't take 7-2 or 4-1 on him in an 18-horse field."
Well, Water Cannon fits the same mold, and I have no such trepidation at 30-1. I will be betting Water Cannon across the board, as well as using him up and down in the exotics with my other top contenders: Lion Heart, Imperialism, Rock Hard Ten, and Eddington.
While Smarty winning here would be great for racing I am throwing him out for a couple of reasons......mainly 6-5 Ml...secondly the 27 second last quarter in the Derby..a sloppy track is not a slow track!
Will be looking for a price here......While Rock Hard Ten a huge colt (17 hands) with a long stride would seem to fit the Belmont better than the sharp turns at Pimlico..I was impressed with his early speed in the S.A. Derby!!! I will include him with the talented Eddington green as he ran in the Wood the breeding and connections are top notch, also Imperialism
(like his troubled Derby run)!!!!!!!Exacta Boxes for these!!!!!
For exotics I will add Lion Heart...Note, am looking for a price, therefore no Smarty!!!!!! Best of luck today!!!!!
Will be looking for a price here......While Rock Hard Ten a huge colt (17 hands) with a long stride would seem to fit the Belmont better than the sharp turns at Pimlico..I was impressed with his early speed in the S.A. Derby!!! I will include him with the talented Eddington green as he ran in the Wood the breeding and connections are top notch, also Imperialism
(like his troubled Derby run)!!!!!!!Exacta Boxes for these!!!!!
For exotics I will add Lion Heart...Note, am looking for a price, therefore no Smarty!!!!!! Best of luck today!!!!!
Eddington better bred for Preakness distance, stayed out of slop Derby. Rock Hard tough out of ten hole, early speed negated. Both are green, and horses sitting derby usually stink in Preakness. But very different slop Derby may change that up. Eddington today, Rock Hard in Belmont if he shows something today. Might wheel Eddington on top, drop out smarty. Always make best money at Belmont, biggest prices from public bias after first two, but it may show today. Best Wishes...OF
