Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

[NewYorkKnight]

Preakness Picks 2016
from Reinier Macatangay



Race 5 (12:51 p.m.) – Maryland Sprint H. (GIII)

Unfortunately for value handicappers, the expected favorite Salutos Amigos (1-1) owns a 7 for 7 record on wet dirt. Always Sunshine (7-2) looks second best on paper, but the exacta will not get anyone’s heart racing. For what it is worth, the TimeformUS Pace Projector believes the race will favor those on or near the lead.

If determined to play this race with longshots, find a way to involve Sonny Inspired (10-1) and Rockinn On Bye (15-1).



Race 6 (1:28 p.m.) – James W. Murphy S.

What a mess of a race this will be on wet turf. If the race stays on turf, Conquest Windycity (5-1) tends to post high late-pace figures and turf expert Jose Lezcano rides. Late-pace numbers take higher importance on grass.



Race 7 (2:04 p.m.) – Allowance

Tricky race. Chief Istan (7-5) will win if he returns to form off the layoff. The TimeformUS Power Picks likes Troubled Waters (6-1). Three starts ago, Gin Makes Ya Sin (15-1) defeated Troubled Waters. Consider those three horses.



Race 8 (2:40 p.m.) – The Very One S.

Oh no, a five-furlong turf sprint! Side with Lady Shipman (3-5) and move on to the next race.



Race 9 (3:21 p.m.) – Chick Lang S.

While Justin Squared (9-5) may run off and wire this field for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Zayat Stables, Never Gone South (8-1) and Counterforce (5-2) are viable alternatives. Discreet Angel (12-1) looks like a wild card choice, with no races to show in North America and no speed figures to analyze. Most of his wins are by large margins.



Race 10 (4:02 p.m.) – Galorette S. (GIII)

Tiger Ride (7-2) certainly exits the best race after finishing sixth in the Jenny Wiley (GI) at Keeneland against Tepin. Critics may point to how she lost by nine lengths, but the waters appear shallow in this spot and she should handle these. For a second pick, consider Josdesanimaux (4-1) and Lezcano, who will give her a good ride.



Race 11 (4:40 p.m.) – LARC Sir Barton S.

American Freedom (5-2) disappointed in the Pat Day Mile (GIII) at Churchill Downs last time. Pace figures from TimeformUS also suggest the colt was compromised on the front end, with Sharp Azteca the only speed horse surviving the pace. Donegal Moon (8-1), Dazzling Gem (5-2) and Gettysburg (5-1) are logical alternatives.

For some mega-longshots, think about the two Malibu Moon colts Cadeyrn (15-1) and Moon King (15-1).



Race 12 (5:39 p.m) – Dixie S. (GII)

What a difficult race. Out of the main choices, maybe RIng Weekend (9-2) overcomes the layoff and wins? Prince Gagarin (15-1) attracts Javier Castellano as his rider and won a Keeneland allowance race, although the speed figure appears low. Turf speed figures are less reliable for selecting winners than dirt (arguable point).

Lezcano picks up the mount on Conquest Typhoon (15-1). Plenty of longshots are here for value bettors.



Race 13 (6:45 p.m.) – Preakness S. (GI)

As a previous article explained, pace logic and history favor Nyquist. The value, if any exists, will come from trying to eliminate Exaggerator (3-1) from the second slot. The outside post is not ideal, but Stradivari (10-1) might fill the runner-up position if he simply duplicates his effort at Keeneland where he ran a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Trifecta and superfecta players might want to throw in Fellowship (30-1), who will be ignored at the windows.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The 2016 Kentucky Derby is over and it is now on to the second leg of the Triple Crown—the Preakness Stakes. Nyquist was the easy winner of the Derby. The two-year-old champion of 2015 tracked a fast pace, gradually moved closer throughout, took over in upper stretch, and had plenty left to hold off the late close of Exaggerator. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace for the Preakness just as it did for the Derby. It is a great starting point for pace analysis of any race, though handicappers should adjust as they see fit.

Here is a horse-by-horse breakdown of the field and how each fits in the Pace Projector:



1.Cherry Wine — He has never been closer than 6th after the opening quarter mile through eight career races. He is shown near the back of the field (note the 6 is shown as a Deep Closer) as he should be.


2.Uncle Lino — It should be noted that both of his career wins have come in wire-to-wire fashion. With Cherry Wine the lone horse drawn inside of him, it is very likely Uncle Lino will move to the rail soon after the start. This horse is likely to try for the lead and may very well be closer than shown or even up front.


3.Nyquist — The Derby winner has proven versatile in his undefeated, eight-race career. He has won races wire to wire and from just off the pace, and he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile from the back half of the field after a poor break. The Pace Projector shows him in second position early, but sitting in fourth behind the 2, 3, and 8 is a distinct possibility. If the pace gets too hot, he’ll drop back and let the others go.


4.Awesome Speed — Listed as a Tracker by TimeformUS, he likes to be up near the front in his best races. He is shown in sixth in the Pace Projector, largely because he doesn’t have the ability of several others in the field. This horse is totally overmatched, but in a route race, most horses can be a factor for at least a short time if pushed hard enough.


5.Exaggerator — He is shown near the back of the field and that is no surprise. He has come from well behind to win the G1 Santa Anita Derby and used the same tactics when finishing second to Nyquist in the Kentucky Derby. He was actually in front of Nyquist in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for over six furlongs and has lost to him on four occasions. It is a near certainty he won’t be in front of him early in the race on Saturday, and the expected fast pace gives him a chance to turn the tables.


6.Lani — The Japanese shipper is not a good gate horse and doesn’t have much early speed. He is projected to be too far back in the Pace Projector to “fit in the picture” and is shown as a Deep Closer. Anything different would be a surprise.


7.Collected — Shown 5th early, he is another, like Awesome Speed, who likes to be up close in his races. Jockey strategy will play a big role with this horse and a more forward position would not be a stretch.


8.Laoban — Probably the best three-year-old maiden in the United States, he is shown as the early leader in the Pace Projector. He has led from the start into the stretch of three of his last four races. All three show the fractions in red, meaning the pace was hot. He is likely to lead the Preakness. The one caution is that he is removing blinkers for the first time since his career debut and may not be as keen early, though it should be noted that the TimeformUS Pace Projector makes algorithmic adjustments for blinkers off.


9.Abiding Star — Has led early in his last eight races, including a few sprints. He is shown in a battle for second early but will almost assuredly be trying for the lead. He’ll be a big part of the early pace.


10.Fellowship — Closer is shown in front of only Lani and Cherry Wine early. It would be quite a stretch to picture him anywhere but well back in the early running.


11.Stradivari — This is probably the toughest horse to gauge from a pace perspective. He is lightly raced and comes in off two wins by a combined 25+ lengths. In both he was right near the front early and took over after a half mile. He is shown in the middle of the pack in the Pace Projector. With his outside post draw, that seems a reasonable placement. There is a lot of speed inside and letting those go and tucking behind them would seem like the best move for a horse that is still learning the game.



The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates the Preakness will have a fast pace. A thorough, more traditional type of pace analysis leads to the same conclusion and even suggests “fast pace” could be an understatement. The Kentucky Derby winner and race favorite Nyquist is a versatile sort that has adapted to this scenario a few times before. ML second-choice Exaggerator is a closer that should be aided by the pace. If looking for horses to fill out vertical exotic wagers (trifectas, superfectas, super high 5s), it is probably best to focus on horses that won’t be up front early.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#1, Cherry Wine (20/1)


Following a visually impressive allowance win in January, this colt was given a couple of chances to make the Kentucky Derby. While he did not run badly in either prep, he didn’t quite earn enough points to get into the starting gate at Churchill Downs. Some of the positives with this Dale Romans trainee are that his speed figures are heading in the right direction and his closing running style should be well-suited to a race that is predicted to feature a fast pace. He even handled a sloppy track as a two-year-old, which may very well come into play on Preakness day. The only knock we have against him is that he may just not be good enough. He got favorable paces to close into in both the Rebel and Blue Grass and still found a few others better than he. Most notably, the horses that defeated him in the Blue Grass were no match for Nyquist or Exaggerator in the Kentucky Derby. We’ll primarily use him underneath, on the bottom rungs of the superfecta.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#2, Uncle Lino (30/1)


One of four sons of Uncle Mo in this race, he was another runner that did not make the cutoff for the Kentucky Derby. However, unlike Cherry Wine, he got a race in three weeks after his final Derby prep, winning a listed stakes at Los Alamitos. He actually ran fairly well two races back, in the Santa Anita Derby, chasing the fast pace set by Danzing Candy before getting blown away by Exaggerator in the stretch. Still, the 113 and 114 speed figures that he’s earned in his last two starts make him faster than much of this Preakness field. Like Nyquist, he’s a stalker that must avoid getting caught up in what is likely to be a fast pace. He’s worthy of superfecta inclusion.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#3, Nyquist (3/5)

The first undefeated Kentucky Derby winner since Smarty Jones will be seeking his ninth consecutive victory while attempting to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown, potentially putting him in position to become the thirteenth Triple Crown winner. There’s no denying that this horse ran the best race in the Derby. He survived a very fast pace, easily put away Gun Runner at the top of the stretch, and held off the late charge of Exaggerator. The effort was good enough to earn him a 123 speed figure, four points higher than Exaggerator’s best lifetime performance, and nearly 10 points higher than what anyone else in this field has accomplished. The beauty of Nyquist is that he’s not only fast, but he’s quite versatile. In last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he was perfectly content to rate about three or four lengths off the pace before unleashing a wide rally to the lead at the top of the stretch. That tractability should serve him well in a race featuring a lot of speed runners, the majority of which are drawn to his outside. Mario Gutierrez will probably have to use him a little bit out of the gate so as to avoid getting a ton of dirt (or mud) kicked back in his face. We also don’t know how the track condition will affect him, since the only time he raced over less-than-fast ground was in his wire-to-wire Florida Derby victory. Yet these are minor concerns at best. This horse has an excellent chance to win the Preakness. The only real question that remains is one of value, since his 3/5 morning line price is slightly lower than we’d be inclined to take, especially given the presence of a legitimate foe in Exaggerator.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#4, Awesome Speed (30/1)


He’s an admirable sort, having won four of his six lifetime starts, the last via disqualification when he was legitimately put up over Governor Malibu. That one came back with a strong effort in the Peter Pan at Belmont last weekend, earning a 112 speed figure. That said, Awesome Speed has never recorded a figure above 102 and is highly questionable at this nine and a half furlong distance. He’s not for us.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#5, Exaggerator (3/1)

At a time when even the elite three-year-olds are raced so sparingly, it’s refreshing to encounter a horse like Exaggerator, who made his 10th lifetime start in the Kentucky Derby, after having competed in eight straight graded stakes races dating back to August of his two-year-old season. All of that racing has apparently had no ill effects on this son of Curlin, since he’s continued to improve his speed figures with each start as a three-year-old. He entered the Kentucky Derby with the best last-out speed figure of 118 for his blowout win in the Santa Anita Derby. His connections tried something new that day, taking him well off the pace in the early going before launching one sustained run from the back of the pack. It worked wonders that day, and they stuck to that plan in the Kentucky Derby. While he did encounter some traffic trouble around the three-eighths pole at Churchill Downs, Kent Desormeaux did a great job working him out into the clear by the time the field reached the top of the stretch. He unleashed a furious rally, making up many lengths on Nyquist through the final quarter mile, but fell just over a length short. So what’s different today? For one thing, Exaggerator loves a wet track, having run especially well over sealed surfaces in both the Delta Jackpot and Santa Anita Derby. As of Thursday morning, there’s an 80% chance of rain in Baltimore on Saturday. Additionally, Exaggerator is going to get a fast pace to close into once again, and, facing this small field, he is unlikely to encounter the traffic issues that hampered him on Derby Day. Nyquist is undefeated, but he’s not invincible. Value still matters, and if Nyquist is going off at 3/5 while Exaggerator is 3/1, as the morning line suggests, we will be betting the Derby runner-up.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#6, Lani (30/1)


Lani was the talk of Louisville heading into the Kentucky Derby, more for his unusual morning antics than about his chances to actually win the race. Considering all that he was up against, Lani’s performance in the Derby was fairly respectable. He finished ninth, beating over half the field. After getting away from the gate slowly, he lagged far back in the early going. Yutaka Take guided him outside of horses exiting the backstretch, which resulted in his losing a lot of ground around the far turn as he raced four-to five-wide before getting spun out even farther as he bore out into the stretch. Stamina does not appear to be an issue for this colt, and his plodding style may actually fit with the dynamics of this race. Furthermore, he’s handled wet tracks in Japan, so rain should not be a concern, and by all accounts, he’s been much better behaved training at Belmont in recent weeks. We doubt he’s good enough to actually beat Nyquist or Exaggerator, but Lani is very much in the mix to round out the trifecta in this Preakness, and his price should be generous.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#7, Collected (12/1)


This Bob Baffert trainee was steered off the Derby trail after a disappointing fourth place finish in the Southwest earlier this winter. Targeting easier spots, he racked up visually impressive scores at Sunland Park and in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. His connections have had the Preakness in their sights for some time now, and he’s done nothing wrong on his way to getting here. However, he’s another runner with speed in a race loaded with pace players. Furthermore, he still has some stamina questions to answer, since winning a nine furlong ungraded stakes at Sunland Park is not quite as demanding as competing in one of the major Derby preps. He’s far from impossible, but we get the feeling that he and Stradivari are going to be two of the shorter prices in this race despite the fact that they have not run significantly faster than many of the other fringe players. We think there are more interesting horses to use underneath at bigger prices.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#8, Laoban (30/1)

While the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be racing on a clear lead in the early going, it is somewhat interesting that his connections are removing the blinkers today. However, even if they’re successful in getting Laoban to relax early, there are plenty of other frontrunners that would be more than willing to take up the running and still ensure that this is an honestly run race. Whatever the tactics, this colt is not without a chance in the Preakness. Of the two horses coming out of the Blue Grass, he certainly ran the better race than Cherry Wine. He was sent hard to the lead, laid down quick fractions, and fought off the favorite, Zulu, in upper stretch before getting swallowed up by the closers in the last furlong. A mile and three-sixteenths may be a stretch for him, but others have to answer similar questions. There are others that we find more attractive, but we still wouldn’t be surprised to see him still in the hunt as the field turns for home.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#9, Abiding Star (30/1)


It isn’t wise to underestimate horses that are in great form, especially when their confidence is high. That has to be the case with Abiding Star, who comes into this race riding a five-race winning streak. That said, it wasn’t until two starts ago that he took his game to the next level. Facing a decent group of seasoned older runners, this colt basically ran off midway through the race and never looked back, drawing off to an impressive score while earning a 114 speed figure, tied for the fastest race run by any of these runners not named Nyquist or Exaggerator. It seems like a wet track would only better his chances. We wouldn’t be surprised if he challenged Laoban for the early lead and could even see him as the one speed that’s still trying to fend off Nyquist approaching the quarter pole. Essentially, we think he sports a very similar profile to Stradivari, except he’s going to be about three or four times the price of that one. That’s good enough for us to throw him into our exotic wagers.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#10, Fellowship (30/1)


We put him in the same category as Cherry Wine. His running style gives him an outside chance at running into the superfecta, but we believe there are many more talented runners in this race. We also would have expected a little more from him in his first start out of Mark Casse’s barn last time, but the trainer switch really didn’t seem to move him forward. The prospect of a wet track may present an additional concern, since he didn’t appear to handle very wet going as a two-year-old.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

#11, Stradivari (10/1)

This is the horse that seemingly everyone is hoping will emerge as the primary challenger to Nyquist and Exaggerator. He was visually impressive when running off to a 14-length victory last time at Keeneland and people took notice, with some even conceding the Preakness to him before the Derby had even been run. So can he live up to the hype and prove that he is just as good as the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby? We’re doubtful. For one thing, he’s never faced a field of this quality. The race rating of his allowance win was a 105, whereas the race rating of the Preakness is a 117. That’s a pretty significant leap up in class. Furthermore, he hasn’t actually run that fast yet. Due to the relatively moderate pace he was allowed to set, his speed figure did not come back all that fast. The 113 that he earned makes him no faster than horses like Laoban and Abiding Star, who are going to go off at much higher prices. Finally, he’s never had to deal with the kind of early speed that he’ll encounter in this race and may have to adopt new tactics while trying to come from off the pace. Given all of these obstacles and the inevitable lack of value, we’re completely leaving him off our tickets.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

THE PLAY

While Nyquist (#3) might have the slight edge over the Derby runner-up in terms of raw ability, we believe that EXAGGERATOR (#5) will offer better value given the likelihood of a hotly contested pace and the possibility of a wet track. There should not be that great of a disparity in odds between these two.


Win:
#5, Exaggerator, at odds of 5/2 or higher


Exacta:
5 with 3,6


Trifectas:
3,5 with 3,5 with 1,6,8,9
5 with 1,6,8,9 with 3
5 with 3 with 2,7,10


Superfectas:
3,5 with 3,5 with 1,6,8,9 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10
5 with 3 with 2,7,10 with 1,6,8,9

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Race 12 - Post: 5:39 PM ET

The Grade 2, $250,000 Dixie




According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the early leader will be #12 Take the Stand. He is closely followed by #7 Grand Arch. Then there’s a gap back to El Kabeir, Long On Value, and Prince Gagarin.

The fastest TimeformUS Late Pace rating in the field, a 120, belongs to Golden Sabre.



#1 Long On Value (12-1): Mott five-year-old has run his number on soft turf, has competitive speed figures, and is proven at this level. However, he regressed three points, to a 121, second off the layoff. We expect him to tuck in behind the speed today. He is fully capable of coming from off the pace. He is a horse we can neither embrace nor dismiss.


#2 Za Approval (10-1): Eight-year-old has a sterling record and bankroll, but we don’t think he is quite what he once was, and we question him on soft turf. He is hard to entirely dismiss off the layoff, since any kind of “fresh” improvement over his most recent puts him in the thick of things, and Casse gets a solid 82 off comparable layoffs, but we are playing against him on the win end.


#3 Captain Dixie (20-1): Put strong races together after Jamie Ness claimed him from Chad Brown, earning speed figures of 121 and 122 against Optional Claiming competition. Visually, we are very much intrigued by the latter effort, which we found impressive. The downsides are considerable though. His lone effort on yielding turf was dull. He is facing much tougher company than he is used to facing. And we are not necessarily looking to play Jamie Ness in a graded stake. Because the odds figure to be fat, however, we will find a way to get this horse on backup horizontal exotic tickets, especially if the course is firm or good.


#4 Takeover Target (8-1):

Chad Brown colt will be making his fourth start as a four-year-old. A Grade 2 winner, he has recorded three speed figures in the low-to-mid 120s. Brown has not started enough horses at Pimlico to get a TFUS trainer rating for this track, but he has done very well here on a short sample earlier in his career. He gets a 100 rating with similar race spacing and a 100 with this rider. Takeover Target is proven multiple times on soft turf. We were not wowed visually by his loss to a red-hot NY-bred at Aqueduct in April, but the figure came back strong, and it is unlikely that race was the target anyway. Strong contender, possibly at a hint of price.


#5 Conquest Typhoon (15-1)

Ran his best race two back at Gulfstream, when he made a late run to take a second-level allowance race with a powerful speed figure of 127. Returning in the Makers Mile at Keeneland, he found himself with way too much to do going into the far turn, made part of a crazy wide run around that turn, and came up well short, regressing to a 116. He has won a Grade 2 on yielding turf. He has nice spacing into this race. He seems like a reasonable longshot to us.


#6 Golden Sabre (15-1): One of two for Graham Motion, at time of writing, this gelding has no rider listed, which is hardly encouraging. His lifetime-best performance came on synthetic at Woodbine: a 127 while winning a Grade 3. He will be going third off the layoff today. His pattern off the layoff (105 and 108) is slow but pointed the right way. None of this sets the heart to racing. However, Golden Sabre ran only once on yielding turf, and we liked his effort quite a bit. Indeed, we think it was considerably better than it looks in the PPs. We’ll give him a longshot chance in here.


#7 Grand Arch (4-1): Seven-year-old gelding makes his first start since running third in the BC Mile at Keeneland. That was a gritty performance in which he briefly looked as if he was going nowhere and then fought his way to a piece of the trifecta while no match for Tepin. That performance gave him back to back speed figures of 130 or higher. He is proven against the best turf horses we have. He is proven on soft turf (though his trainer seems to disagree). He has fired big off the layoff. His trainer gets a 92 rating off this sort of layoff. He has been training regularly at Keeneland and Belmont. Pace Projector shows him with the rail early, just off the early lead. We see him as the most likely winner of this race, but given the uncertainty, we would be demanding about price.


#8 Prince Gagarin (15-1): Makes his second start in the US. His Euro numbers are too slow vs. these. So is his lone US number. Handles soft turf, but would need a huge jump today. Pass.


#9 Ring Weekend (9-2)

His most recent race was over 14 months ago, when he uncorked a wide, powerful late run to overpower the field in the Grade 1 Kilroe at Santa Anita. For that effort he earned a speed figure of 123, which certainly fits in here. He’ll be making his first start as a five-year-old, and he is certainly eligible to improve further. However, horses do not get 15 months off for no good reason. Ring Weekend had a foot problem, one that persisted. Moreover, good as trainer Graham Motion is with layoff horses in general (94 rating), he is nowhere near as effective when the length of the layoff gets extremely long (53 rating for layoffs of between 330-551 days).

Ring Weekend has fired off shorter layoffs in the past. He is certainly a contender. He has big talent. But given his relatively short odds and long layoff and the fact that his lone soft-turf effort (while ending in victory) was not his best, we will look elsewhere for our top pick.


#10 El Kabeir (20-1): Makes his turf debut in his 14th start. Is not bred to move up on the surface. Trainer gets a 51 rating off this sort of layoff and a 46 going first-time turf. We do not care for this rider on grass. El Kabeir is probably not fast enough off his best dirt effort. We don’t want him on turf today.


#11 Force the Pass (5-1): Winner of the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last summer, he returned from a six-month layoff at Gulfstream and recorded a lifetime-top speed figure of 127 while running a close third. A four-year-old with nine races under his belt, he still has some upside. What is more, on our figures, he is effectively the second fastest horse in the race. Pace Projector shows him coming from well off the pace today, though he has won with that kind of trip. His trainer, Alan Goldberg, gets better ratings off the layoff than he does second off the layoff. He is proven on nothing softer than “good” turf. His ML odds seem a bit stingy. But he is certainly a contender today.


#12 Take the Stand (6-1): The second and more highly regarded Mott entrant, this Argentina-bred enters off a wire-to-wire win in a Fair Grounds Grade 2. He set a fast pace in that effort (note race fractions and pace figures color-coded in red), receiving a seven-point boost in his final-time figure on our figures (which are adjusted for pace). This leaves him with a 121—a competitive number in here. He has never raced on “off” turf. His TFUS Breeding Rating for off turf is not particularly encouraging. Draws a tough post. If his rider sends, he may end up parked outside of Grand Arch, which would make for a mighty unpleasant trip in our book. Take the Stand is a contender, but we are looking elsewhere for our top selection.


#13 Cage Fighter (20-1): Pulled up in his six-year-old debut. Has never won a graded stake. Draws poorly. Pass.




The Play:

At time of writing, the forecast is for heavy rain, and a few owners and trainers are talking about scratching their horses if the course ends up soft.

We believe that Grand Arch is the most likely winner regardless of the track condition. But we find his likely odds unexciting.

In multi-race exotics, assuming that the course is yielding or soft, we will use Grand Arch (who might very well scratch), Takeover Target, Conquest Typhoon, and Golden Sabre.

Assuming that the course is yielding or soft, we will make Takeover Target our win bet, and we will use Conquest Typhoon heavily underneath.

If somehow the course ends up firm or good, we will replace Golden Sabre with Captain Dixie and keep everything else the same.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Race 9 - 3:21 PM Post

$100,000 Chick Lang




According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the early leader will be Justin Squared, and by a big margin. Big Louie D is shown in second place, with Formal Summation in third. The pace is projected to be neither fast nor slow.

#1 Justin Squared (9-5)

Baffert colt made his debut at Del Mar as a two-year-old. He ran away and hid from MSW company, which is often very strong at that racetrack in the summer, earning a powerful speed figure of 110. Then he went to the sidelines for seven months. He returned in April to take a bottom-level allowance at Los Alamitos, again winning wire to wire, again unchallenged at any call, again with a powerful speed figure—this one a 116. That race received a Race Rating of 112, indicating that he is not stepping up in class today. In addition, Mrazek, whom he beat by almost two lengths in that allowance, returned to miss by a neck in a Grade 3 last week. Baffert’s work at Pimlico has been much publicized. He currently gets a perfect 100 rating on a small, showy sample. The patented Baffert fast workouts are on display. Pace Projector shows Justin Squared making the early lead comfortably. He has not yet raced on an off track, but he qualifies as the horse to beat (at a short price).


#2 Cozze Cat (30-1): Still eligible for a bottom-level allowance and seems overmatched in here.


Quijote (3-1): Has gone forward on our speed figures in every start. Jumped all the way to a 115 at Charles Town in his most recent start. Both he and his lone serious opponent in that race ran around the racetrack together, taking advantage of soft fractions. Quijote is facing tougher horses today, and fast figures earned at Charles Town do not always translate to larger racetracks, since Charles Town is a racetrack that can be especially conducive to specialists. But he is very fast on our figures, and he has twice proven that he can win from off the pace.


Discreet Angel (12-1): Kentucky-bred is 5 for 8 in Puerto Rico (for which we lack speed figures). He looks nice on video, but his sloppy-track races do not seem to be his best work, and anyway, we tend to doubt that he can run with the best of these as he cuts back in distance. Plus he apparently enjoys running on the lead, and he seems exceedingly unlikely to get to the lead in here.


Never Gone South (8-1): Worked his way up to a speed figure of 101 at Laurel as a two-year-old. Then he paired it. Then he exploded to a 116 after setting a slow pace (note pace figures and race fractions color-coded in blue) and dominating a minor stake—again at Laurel. Then he stretched out in distance and resumed running in the 100 range. Trainer Cathal Lynch gets a nice 93 rating at Pimlico on a small sample. Our second-biggest knock on Never Gone South is that he is facing considerably tougher today. Our biggest knock on him is that he likes to race close to the early lead, if not on it, and if he tries those tactics today, Justin Squared figures to make him pay for it.


Counterforce (5-2)

Asmussen colt has improved his speed figure in all three starts: 98 101 105. Most recently, he took advantage of a fast pace and made a strong late run to win a minor stake. The Race Rating for that race was a 111, only one point below the preliminary Race Rating for today’s race. All three of Counterforce’s starts came at Oaklawn. Asmussen in general has been less successful in his rare starts at Pimlico. Counterforce’s off-the-pace style could be flattered in here. However, to date he is about 10 points slower on our figures than the fastest horses in this field. And his ML odds are short. We see him as a contender but a likely underlay.


Big Louie D (10-1)

2 for 3 lifetime, all at Parx, today he makes his first start in six months. This is a weak category for Jason Servis, who gets a mere 30 rating off this sort of layoff. Big Louie D was running improving speed figures before the gap, his best being a 106 that he earned in wire-to-wire fashion. This leaves him well shy of Justin Squared and Quijote. Certainly eligible to come back to the races a better, more mature horse, he may or may not be ready to display this improvement first off the layoff for Servis, and he is another whose style may be cramped by the Baffert speed-burner on the rail. And our Race Ratings indicate that he is up in class by a whopping 17 points. Nice horse. Tough assignment. Need big odds.


Formal Summation (20-1): Just paired his lifetime-top of 102. That is way too slow vs. the best of these, and if he sticks with the front-running style that he has employed of late, he will have to deal with Justin Squared early. Won a slow race in the slop as a two-year-old. We don’t like him today.



The Play:

We do not see this as a great betting race. Justin Squared is the most likely winner, but he figures to get pounded by the crowd.

Quijote and Counterforce are obvious contenders at similarly less-than-thrilling odds.

If a genuine upset is coming, we see Big Louie D (10-1 ML) as the most likely to pull it off.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Race 11 - 4:40 PM Post

$100,000 Sir Barton



According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the Sir Barton will be run at a fast pace, and the clear early leader will be #5 American Freedom. He is followed by Cadeyrn and Gettysburg. Then there’s another gap back to Dazzling Gem and Donegal Moon.

Lazarus Project (20-1): Has had three chances to get back to the 101 that he ran in his second start. Still hasn’t done it. We are looking elsewhere.


Cadeyrn (15-1): Broke his maiden by 11 lengths at Aqueduct in his fourth start. Essentially paired his top of 103, which is too slow against the best of these. His front-running style may leave him compromised by the projected fast pace. We don’t like him today.


Kingslayer (15-1): His trainer gets a 100 rating at Pimlico and this colt’s top of 100 came in the slop at Parx. However, after seven tries, he is still way too slow on our figures, and he will probably be coming from well back today. Pass.


Voluntario (10-1): Interesting horse. He was fast at age two, establishing a top of 104 while breaking his maiden in a maiden claiming sprint. He got past it in his second start at age three. Then he moved forward another four points in his first route attempt. He will be trying two turns for the first time, and he is one more forward move away from being able to run with the best of these at a price. Rudy Rodriguez gets a decent 78 rating at Pimlico. The projected fast pace would probably flatter this horse.


American Freedom (5-2)

Baffert colt broke his maiden in his debut, over a sloppy track. Then he jumped 12 points to a 115 in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile despite a rough start. Pace Projector shows him in the early lead, but he is also a prime candidate to stalk instead. Baffert gets a 100 rating at Pimlico and a 92 with third-time starters. $500,000 purchase has loads of potential and is already very fast. Strong contender. The knock here is price.


Donegal Moon (8-1): Ran a 110 as a two-year-old while well beaten by Mohaymen in the Remsen. Surpassed it by six points while dominating an entry-level allowance at Parx. Regressed six points in the Blue Grass. A step back toward the 116 would make him a contender today. Pletcher is strong (99 rating) at Pimlico.


Dazzling Gem (9-2)

Has an absolutely gorgeous pattern of speed figures: 98 108 110 113. Has proven capable of stalking a fast pace while retaining his punch. Has proven capable of sitting back like a full-blown closer and making a run. He’s fast (top of 113). He’s lightly raced. He’s in excellent hands. He has faced strong company. He has nice timing into this race (Cox gets a 100 rating with comparable spacing between starts). He has supposedly been training very well for this. In the Arkansas Derby he made a wide run while hard-used after likely having had some of the life sucked out of him by racing fairly close to a crazy-fast pace. We find much to like here. Dazzling Gem is our selection.


Moon King (15-1): Casse colt is a little slow vs. these but he has a pretty pattern and he’s in good hands. We would not rule out another jump, which could get him into the bottom of exotics.


Charmed Victory (20-1): His last dirt try was a step backwards from a number that itself was too slow. We are not optimistic.


Discreet Lover (15-1): Made a big jump, to a 111, in his 11th start. That is the kind of effort that is likely to be followed by a regression. And he is leaving Parx for this. However, he has the right style, and he will be a price. So we will keep him in the exotic mix in the hope that he comes close to pairing.


I Came to Party (20-1): His only strong effort from nine tries came in a Charles Town sprint that we don’t expect to translate all that well today. We’ll pass.


Fearless Dragon (20-1): Is on an improving pattern but remains too slow and is way up in class for this. Pass.


Gone Local (30-1): Way too slow on our numbers.


Gettysburg (5-1): We are quite fond of this colt. He has improved his speed figure in every start: 84 93 101 104 114 118. He has run well in tougher company than he sees today. He fought hard after setting a crazy-fast pace in the Arkansas Derby. Pletcher’s horses fire at Pimlico. There is quite a bit to like here. What we do not like is this post into a projected hot pace. But Gettysburg is certainly a strong contender. At this point in his career, he could very well be the most talented horse in the field.



The Play:

Win bet on Dazzling Gem.

Add trifectas using Dazzling Gem over and under American Freedom and Gettysburg, while using Voluntario, Moon King, and Discreet Lover in the three-hole only.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

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