I think you are getting confused w some public PRs sites may provide online like you say once a week vs PRs cappers develop on their own to use when analyzing games.
And you adjust these personal PRs daily based on injuries, weather and all other news. Joe Burrow is out, you adjust your PR down by say 6 pts etc, a CB is back from IR + 1 pt etc etc.
Hope that helps and again it is just another tool, some use them some don't.
While your theory sounds like what any person would expect, - its radically wrong again even assuming a 6pt drop in losing QB Burrow.
Just the fact that Cincy actually won the game SU vs Jags as a huge dog, exposes that any power rating used is speculative at best.
So in the first week The Bengals lost without Burrow to Baltimore when he went down early in the game, you wanted to adjust the rating by 6pts for the next Gaame.
The first full game without him lost to Pittsburgh. So Its for sure that you could not move the rating number back up after the loss, but would be even more susceptible to move it down again.
Therefore, again - using that Pittsburgh loss as a way to reduce the PR, as noted in week-by-week results.
Technically now, your "adjustment would have been another 2-3 pts downward when adding in the loss of that first game without burrow.. So NOW your PR has dropped at least 8-9 pts and all od a sudden youre betting against the Bengals in the next game with a substantial drop in the rating which is indicating to you that Cincy is far worse without Burrow.
Then all of a sudden BOOM. The Bengals as a 10pt dog, stun Jacksonville who's PR was way higher than the Bengals at game time - and you are so far off on the PR number - that you cant recover using them again to find an advantage in the spread. Just the fact that anyone would use a 6pt move in the expectation of a line advantage, is when these numbers are skewed so badly.
News reports, injuries an other factors that you may feel are worth using to adjust a Rating, is when when the first number created is wrong, it then compounds the power ratings even more wrongly and the lag time I mentioned, is very real now and it causes many to misread the changes radically, into a false advantages for or against any team involved in the next game.
Notice now that the line has been radically adjusted for Cincy now on the next game but your PR numbers are at least 2 weeks behind and are way off being anywhere near accurate, in any way.
I'll add points allowed points scored PA vs. PF gives you the final score. Bottom Line is the Vegas totals line reflects this.... Good Luck
As far as the point spread just play the ML... Just win... Gambling has taken Americans back a step. Just win
As far as the point spread just play the ML... Just win... Gambling has taken Americans back a step. Just win
Facts is I usually ML favorites who are up to -3 in the spread often. So I agree with that ..
Playing the ML on favorites of less than three is a long-term losing proposition. Based on data over the last several years, for illustrative purposes, one’s losses would be approximately 40% higher by playing the ML on a favorite of less than three versus laying the points and your needed win rate (assuming -110 on spreads) increases from 52.38% to approximately 56.70%.
Obviously, someone isn’t playing the favorite in every one of these situations, but the amount of times a favorite of less than three wins, but doesn’t cover, doesn’t remotely make up (believe it around 3.1% the favorite wins, but doesn’t cover either by loss or push) for the additional losses incurred by the inflated ML of -120/-145.
That’s not to say in any given game, it couldn’t save you, but over a large sampling of bets one is better served laying the points on the favorite of less than three and taking the ML on a dog of less than three.
Hopefully we all cruise to easy wins and it doesn’t come into play.
Best of luck with everyone’s action.
Obviously, someone isn’t playing the favorite in every one of these situations, but the amount of times a favorite of less than three wins, but doesn’t cover, doesn’t remotely make up (believe it around 3.1% the favorite wins, but doesn’t cover either by loss or push) for the additional losses incurred by the inflated ML of -120/-145.
That’s not to say in any given game, it couldn’t save you, but over a large sampling of bets one is better served laying the points on the favorite of less than three and taking the ML on a dog of less than three.
Hopefully we all cruise to easy wins and it doesn’t come into play.
Best of luck with everyone’s action.
No it isn't. You set your PRs at the start of the year. After a few games you may adjust them vs the actual , you don't necessarily adjust the PR after every game. You may make an adj again as injuries weather come to light just for that game then back to the original # unless the events are long term
You make a 1 time adjustment for a major injury and leave it for a few games then check vs actual and readjust again if you like . Either way you dont seem to want to understand the concept or use them so we'll leave it there
