POTC Value play

[jcambert]

I'm really starting to like this OVER play more and more. I think there is a point that nobody has brought up and that is that this film is going to be a big hit with the women. Apparently, it's getting alot of talk amongst women, and, all things being equal, that might push this over the top. For the most part, men are going to be showing up as usual, but, if alot of women are going to show up also, that might just do it.

Not saying it's a certainty, but, I'm starting to lean very strongly, as opposed to before, when I was very 50-50.

JP

 

[Oren1]

I got 20 on odd!

 

[Oren1]

I still like the under

because I kinda think it's going to go over, so it will go under instead. $$$

 

[jcambert]

LOL.

Using that reasoning, with the way that I have been going so far, and because of the fact that I am starting to like the OVER, I'm going to predict that this goes under.

JP

 

[Gillian]

I think you're both crazy. But i suck... so i guess we're even.

 

[jcambert]

Ok, the official theater count for tomorrow will be 3023 with an expansion up to 3269 on Friday. Using a conservative $11k per theater puts this RIGHT at $36mil.

Also, check out the following thread at Boxofficemojo. It looks like this film might actually do pretty well. Who knows? Maybe the surprise hit of the summer?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=18780

JP

 

[Oren1]

I was banned from that message board, I can't even read other people's posts!

'Cept I've got another computer with a different I.P. so it's cool. There's so many idiots on there I couldn't resist talking trash, and the pussies banned me without even a warning. Chumps. They're just jealous because I'm the only one that predicted T3 correctly.

 

[Gillian]

buzz isn't cracked up to what it use to be. Examples: T3, CA2, and last but not least, Hulk.

 

[Oren1]

prebuzz score:
T3 I forgot, 80?
Hulk 98
CA2 34 (Ca 1+2)

gross:
T3: 44 35-day 70 something
Hulk 64?
Ca2 38

 

[Oren1]

the under's at +130@ get it while it's hot! oh shit, deja-vu, I feel another

coming...

 

[Gillian]

T 3's buzz is 108 fart face!!!

And guess what... those homos a bodog all of a sudden put up a prop... gee wiz,, wonder where they got it from. ha ha... what a bunch of copy cats.

Lets rack up their OVER!!! +140

 

[Oren1]

I'm talking about BEFORE the movie's release date, homo!

 

[Gillian]

At what time during the day(morning) does the buzz charts update????

 

[Oren1]

I don't remember, but it seems like they used to update it almost daily. Maybe I'm trippin, though, because recently it's only been updated a couple or few times a week. Not sure.

 

[Oren1]

well... it's theater total might be a bit low, but it seems to be playing on a lot of screens, tons of theaters seem to have it on 2 screens, which ain't bad all things considered. It's 2 1/2 hours long, but with the apparently high screen count that shouldn't matter much. They're also showing midnight sneeks.

 

[Oren1]

but Ain't it cool news recently posted a review of Pirates, and it hasn't garnered a lot of responses in the "talkback." T3, on the other hand, generated an enormous amount of chatter. Of course, T3 was more of a geek-friendly movie, which that sight's fan-base is primarily made of, and also, I'm not sure when they posted this review, it could have been 10 minutes ago. So far I doubt this one will be as huge as some people seem to think it will be on the box office message boards. They've gone too high for a month straight. That moviefone ranking is impressive, though, it seems like it might be getting more calls than Terminator did.

Anyways... when they moved the line from 36 to 37.5, perhaps they moved it too far... I hope. 37.5 sounds about right to me, I only took the under because it had a better price.

 

[jcambert]

Man, this is wierd, cause we pretty well agree on everything. This one could go either way. This is precisely why I played the OVER 36 at +170. Too much value to pass up. You are getting +170 on a 50/50 shot (or maybe even better than 50/50). The more I read about the film, the more I really do like the OVER, though. This might be just the type of film to break this slump that the box office is in. I still think that there is some value in the OVER 38+140 at Bodog.

Boxofficereport is predicting $40
Lee (who I always thoought was awful but has been dead on over the last few weeks), is predicting almost $50

Once again, we shall see.

JP

 

[Oren1]

honestly, I feel pretty good about my under play, but I felt pretty good about my over Hulk and CA2 plays, too.

Still not a lot of buzz on Ain't it Cool News about this film, and I didn't see any sneek-preview theater reports, except for one person that mentioned their wife wanted to go... so, 50 seems a tad over-optimistic. My feeling is that this film is a little easier to predict than recent movies, but 37 is the number I like so it could end up being 38. Whateva, time to wait for theater reports to roll in.

It's buzz score is now 34, I forgot to record what T3's was on Tuesday. It might have been lower...

Correction, one midnight theater report, and it was 90% full.

heheh.

[This message was edited by Oren1 on July 09, 2003 at 03:26 PM.]

 

[jcambert]

There has only been one theater report, on BOM, about the midnight show last night. The guy said that it was 90% full, which is probably a pretty good sign, considering the time of day, and the fact it's a weekday, but, either way, you all know that I don't believe too much in those theater reports.

JP

 

[Oren1]

yeah... I'm a bit surprised that it was 90 percent full, though. Of course it was only playing at midnight, on fewer screens than it will be this weekend, blah blah... He also said that there were groups of women there, which other action movies this summer have failed to produce, for the most part. Maybe this is where Sounds assertion that the buzz index tracks mosty the male audience comes into play.