Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

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The Suck is now back to -26.33 Units

Friday: CIN -1.5 +185 / STL -140 / SD +145 / TOR +115 / TEX +145 / CLE +127
 

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FWIW the Home Teams opened Round 3 last year covering 10 out of the first 11 games. They are 1-3 ATS so far this year.

Home Teams in this Round in Games 3+4 after going 4-0 last year are 30-14 ATS the past 10 years.

Round 3 GAME 3 ONLY Home Teams are 15-3 ATS since 2000 if either team leads 2-0. This trend went 2-0 last year but 0-2 in 2015. So it was 13-1 from 2000-2014. This year it Plays on SAN+CLE. (Who wants to fade GSW today after the message the Cavs sent last night? And isn't it funny how the Cavs dropped 8 out of 10 toward the end of the Reg and pretended they were struggling to find answers? League is a Fucking JOKE)!

O/U in Round 3 opened 0-5 in 2016 and 0-5 in 2015. It's opened 3-1 this year after the first UNDER of Round 3 last night.

Home Teams in the FIRST HALF of Round 3 ended last Season on a 24-2 ATS run. That's 1-3 so far this year.

Any Series Any Round Game #3 if the Series has 2 OVER and 0 UNDER so far = 24-59 O/U since 1990. This plays UNDER TODAY.
 

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Blew leads with TOR + STL last night. Can't win a close game and it's always the manager of the team I have getting tossed. Not my year = -28.01

PIT -120 / CIN -1.5 +170 / STL -135 / SD +115 / TEX +140 / NYM -117
 

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.35 Units gained yesterday. Another disgrace in St Louis!

Sunday: CIN -1.5 +175 / PIT +110 / MIL +190 / DET +115 / OV 8 -115 hou / CWS +122 / NYM -105
 
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Croaked here again yesterday. Croaked at the Preakness. BUT I had a $60.00 win ticket on a horse in the last race 14th at Pimlico that paid $20.40. $612.00 in my pocket for a net +$ 152.00 for the day. Maybe my luck is about to change. Maybe.

20-41 -789 L4

Milwaukee +182 (@ Chicago)

Let's hope Arrietta doesn't finally find his groove today.

GL guys

 

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FWIW the Home Teams opened Round 3 last year covering 10 out of the first 11 games. They are 1-3 ATS so far this year.

Make it 1-5


Home Teams in this Round in Games 3+4 after going 4-0 last year are 30-14 ATS the past 10 years.

0-2 so far

O/U in Round 3 opened 0-5 in 2016 and 0-5 in 2015. It's opened 3-1 this year after the first UNDER of Round 3 last night.

5-1 now

.......
 

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So I did another study last night, way too late of course! But a stat flashed on ESPN immediately after the Wizards 'won' to reveal that Home teams facing elimination were now (1) -10 (SU) in this year's Playoffs. Sitting here with over 30 8 page packets of Playoff results it was an easy datamine, even without technology. I took it back to 2011 before I saw a bad year for the visitor. I eliminated all game 7s. Here is our newest NBA Angle. Unfortunately it is strongest in Rounds 1+2:

Since 2012 Home teams who trail a Series and are facing elimination are now 13-34 SU and 14-33 ATS, including 1-10 SU and 0-11** ATS in this 2017 Postseason!

**I counted Game #4 CLE@IND as a cover for CLE. They won by 4 and the Line was split b/w 3.5 and 4 at Tipoff

Angle fades the Spurs tonight...
 

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Orioles line (-130) a trap? Seems very low tonight. Twins off DH yesterday. BAL 7-0 Game #1 Home Series this year and also a hot ticket when Ubalbo starts at Home. Stinks....
 

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So I've ruined a 291-239 Hoop Regular Season with a 27-46 NBA Playoff stint. And possibly finished with that until November.

And stuck 28.34 Units in MLB ...... Here's to Bett0r Days!

Monday: LAA +106
 

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Wow these Favs are JACKED UP tonight. And you have situations like a pitcher who has gotten shelled at Home all year vs a team who's won 11 of 12 (BOS). A +230 Dog in STL that has won 9 straight Road Games.

Tuesday: OV 7 -110 cubs / PHI -1.5 +250 / STL +230 / BAL -122 / TAM -110 / TEX +185 / MIL -105 / MIA +118
 

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Either it's time to quit MLB or quit capping it, and instead read the line, pinch the nostrils and folow the oddsmaker when he's way off.

CUBS 13-1 to hit 9 or higher last 14 Home -- OVER 7 = LOSER (4-1 in the 5th inning)

STL 9 straight Road Wins +240 = LOSER

BAL 51-17 Home off a Home Loss = LOSER

TEX 11-1 Run at BOS who is 1-8 in Game #1 of a Series after a Win and 1-6 Home with Porchello = LOSER

MILW 22-4 at Home off a Road Game with a day off last 8 years a DOG vs POS TOR = LOSER

and finally the first stat ever posted in Poly, on the Rays last night, and the stat heading into last night 125-55 over many years = LOSER!
 

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This is a Fucking Joke! Mike Leake is 3-0 Away with a 2.25 ERA. He has 8 quality starts in a row where he's pitched at least 6 innings, and he's facing Blister Hill, who has not gone past the 5th inningin 8 of his last 9. So of course the Dodgers open at -166!!!
 

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Wednesday: SD +130 / UN 9.5 -110 atl / OV 7 -105 cubs / STL +141 / TEX +235 / DET +165 / MIL +108

Disappeared 6.29 Units yesterday / Season - 33.57
 
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Shit. I forgot to post here. I post on two boards. Swore I did. The play was Arizona -1' +173. Yes it won. For the purposes of record keeping consistency I'm counting it. Don't anybody go crazy. Please.
 

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