Yeah I'd be surprised if Charlotte won. There is a legitimate talent disparity between those 2, but yes anything can happen. I am aware of that. 3 years ago I bet the Nets rd 1 vs the Bulls. Chicago lost game 1 by like 30 and ended up winning the series in 7. There was an absurd game in this series when Chicago was down like 11 with 3 minutes left and won. CJ Watson missed a breakaway layup. He was fucking Floyd Mayweather's baby momma for a minute so I think retribution for doing that may have been in his head, I dunno.
As far as chalk, I wouldn't really call Miami "chalk" since they were just favored because of homecourt advantage. If Charlotte had homecourt the line would've been flipped the other way but similar. Something like Cha -150/Mia +130.