Poly Forum Daily Picks Thread SUNDAY 7/12/2015

[vitterd]

Oh well, so much for the Phillies. They look like a de facto Double A side. Need the Rox money line to hang on. 3-0 isn't going to cut it.

Btw, you're officially never allowed to complain about a loss again if the Blue Jays manage to complete a comeback from 7-0 down. Just saw Bautista get tossed in the middle of an at-bat. Dunno what he said but he's got to be smarter than that in that situation.

Well....as anyone knows....for every one game like the blue jays....I have 5 that are like Texas last night. So I will never feel guilty about getting lucky 20 percent of the time.

and they are losing now anyway. Thank god the break is here

 

[vitterd]

Question:

i never play run lines in baseball. As I look tonight I see Pitt -173 but -129 when minus 1 run.

Explain to me why this would be a stupid play? Paying 44 dollars less....why wouldn't I do this....just buying off the push. Isn't this the smarter move. I just don't play run lines either way....so not familiar.

 

[JDeuce]

Question:

i never play run lines in baseball. As I look tonight I see Pitt -173 but -129 when minus 1 run.

Explain to me why this would be a stupid play? Paying 44 dollars less....why wouldn't I do this....just buying off the push. Isn't this the smarter move. I just don't play run lines either way....so not familiar.

You answered your own question. None of my locals offer -1 and I wish they would...I only get the money line or -1.5 (and some other -2.5 exotics, etc).

I'd happily take my chances on -1 all day long at a reduced price. I've tried for a long time to find reliable data that shows how often favorites historically win by exactly one run. 30% of all games supposedly are decided by one run, and I'd guess-timate a little more than half of those are underdog wins...so probably 17-20% of favorites win by one run is my loose theory.

Not sure what to make of tonight. Liriano is a machine but this former reliever the Cards are starting has looked solid in his limited time.

 

[vitterd]

You answered your own question. None of my locals offer -1 and I wish they would...I only get the money line or -1.5 (and some other -2.5 exotics, etc).

I'd happily take my chances on -1 all day long at a reduced price. I've tried for a long time to find reliable data that shows how often favorites historically win by exactly one run. 30% of all games supposedly are decided by one run, and I'd guess-timate a little more than half of those are underdog wins...so probably 17-20% of favorites win by one run is my loose theory.

Not sure what to make of tonight. Liriano is a machine but this former reliever the Cards are starting has looked solid in his limited time.

How long have books offered this? Truthfully I just recently noticed it was an option at heritage. I don't play games over 1.40 as a general rule of mine and I lay low in baseball after the break because it seems favs rule the day as some teams mail it in. This option changes a lot for me and I suspect I will be doing more than a few of those in the second half.

Laying off tonight.....gonna enjoy a break.

 

[Willie99]

Saturday 2-1 +1.0
YTD: 51-55 +10.41


Twins -126
O's -106
Brewers +158
SD +122

Sunday 2-2 + 0.16
YTD: 53-57 + 10.57

 

[mountain]

Question:

i never play run lines in baseball. As I look tonight I see Pitt -173 but -129 when minus 1 run.

Explain to me why this would be a stupid play? Paying 44 dollars less....why wouldn't I do this....just buying off the push. Isn't this the smarter move. I just don't play run lines either way....so not familiar.

http://www.betfirm.com/one-run-mlb-games/

 

[The Guesser]

How long have books offered this? Truthfully I just recently noticed it was an option at heritage. I don't play games over 1.40 as a general rule of mine and I lay low in baseball after the break because it seems favs rule the day as some teams mail it in. This option changes a lot for me and I suspect I will be doing more than a few of those in the second half.

Laying off tonight.....gonna enjoy a break.

There was a discussion on this accross the street that you may find interesting. Ultimately, you can create your own -1 Run Line in every game and get a better price than Heritage's -1 Run Line. I have no idea if it's ultimately more profitable than betting the straight money line.
[h=1]This Book rapes you on MLB -1 lines just bet your own. Check this out.[/h]