Poly Forum Daily Picks Thread MONDAY 7/6/2015

[ScottL]

Dodgers on third starter now. The guy has given up nearly a Run per each Out he's recorded in his last 3 appearances.
http://content.sportsdirectinc.com/...aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player111272.html

LAD best record in MLB in July-August combined last 3+ years = 74-37 (incl 2-2 in 2015). This team seems to lack the ability to match that mark for a 4th year though.

 

[Willie99]

Sat 0-3 -3.0
YTD 46-48 +12.91

It's safe to say that my post surgical surge peaked on Thursday 6/25, and I've been trending down since then (lost 7k in that time frame, bringing me from + 27k to + 20k, of which I already cashed in 19k)

lost 3 one run games both Friday and Saturday, 5 of them after the 7th so youse know ole mo is changing. I really hate those type of runs, I don't give a fuck I lucky I was before then

playing smaller (because I have to )

Cleve -122
Bucks -146
SF -133

 

[Michelangelo]

After looking at the betting I'm going to stay clear of that Wash / Cincy game, myself, Scott.

 

[Michelangelo]

There's money to be had betting against the Dodgers this year, especially when they are at home. You're gonna be surprised by this. Philly is 3-5 when on the road in their last 20 games. The Boys in Blue are 3-5 when home in their last 20 games. I'll be on Philly tonight.

Add:

Cub -126 (vs St L)
CWS -117 (vs Tor)
TBy +121 (@ KCy)
Minny +107 (vs Bal)
Phi +210 (@ LAD)

The thing that makes Philly different than most losing teams is that they have a pretty good closer in Papplebon. So if they can manage a lead late against a team that has been held to 3 or fewer runs in five of their last eight at home... IF.

 

[vitterd]

Padres +105

cubs -125

 

[ScottL]

I gained $55 yesterday and am now +$1009 all threads.

SD +105

STL +115

OVER 7 +110 nym-sf

OVER 7.5 +105 bal-min

TAM +125


Notes:

SD has won 14 straight Series at PIT.

STL is 23-7 when entering a Game with a sub 500 Record in their previous 5 Games.

NYM is 33-7 OVER as a Road Dog at Night after scoring 6+ Runs
Mets also 0-9 Away off Away Win by 2+ Runs but I can't play both with SF flying 3000 miles today.

TAM is 9-3 in Game #1 of Road Series when coming off a Road Series, allowing 0-3 Runs in 10 of those 12 Games.

MIN is 29-10 OVER in Game #1 of a Home Series.

 

[ScottL]

I crossed out a Play on HOU because Hondo has them in the NY Post today. I don't always fade Hondo but when he takes my side I cross out the game because he hasn't had a winning season in any sport since he got his column.

Anyway after HOU wins tonight CLE will be 2-17 last 19 in Game #1 of a Home Series.

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks for the alert on the Nats, Scott.

 

[vitterd]

0-2 tonight (-2,250)

get a little worried a bad run is coming when I see these types of losses

horrific base running blunders for Padres loss

wong saves the day for cards in bottom half and then Cubs third baseman throws the ball away in the top half.

Gonna tread lightly next few days.

 

[Michelangelo]

Yea. Except the Cubs game isn't over. In delay.

 

[vitterd]

I'm grading it as a loser now....I won't be awake when it's official.

 

[SheriffJoe]

yest 2-6 -348
YTD 37-53 -137

(5x) St L / Cub Under 8' -103

Lackey and Lester both pitched for the Red Sox before the Red Sox (like fools) traded Lackey at the trade deadline last year and went on to lose Lester to free agency. I, personally, always thought that Lackey, when right, was the ace of the Red Sox staff. Most assigned that status to Lester. My guess is that these guys will both want to prove who is better tonight. They are both pitching well right now.

Add into the mix that the Cubbies have scored two or fewer runs in 8 of their last 10 games while allowing 2 or fewer in their last 6 games. Add that Lester has pitched in 5 straight games where the totals have not exceeded 6 runs.

And the Cardinals total scores have been less than tonight's number in 7 straight and 11 of 12. And St L has allowed 4 or fewer runs in 11 of Lackey's last 13 starts.

Going big on this baby. Wish me luck.

///

Scott, I'm betting 5 times my normal amount on this total, a rarity for me. Just wanted to know if that multiple is allowed to be tabulated here, win or lose?

Nice hit, Michelangelo! The pitcher's duel unfolded just as you predicted. :aktion033

Of course poker fraud vtard lives up to his name, this time getting caught using stale lines. :>(

 

[The Guesser]

Of Course, Vit used an accurate line from Heritage on the Phils game in question at the time of his post. Someone is actually accusing him of using a stale line in a thread where there's no actual money involved, and the thread is just designed to help people out??? Incredible. hno:. Great Job in this daily thread guys. Will post an occasional rare Baseball play and WWE PPVs, but will be more active once NFL starts, and hopefully this concept isn't contaminated by non participants before then. MONEY LINES

TIME

PHI

ATL

07/05 01:32 PM	-104	-104
07/05 01:31 PM	-110	-110
07/05 12:10 PM	+107	-115
07/05 01:00 AM	+112	-121
07/05 12:40 AM	+111	-120
07/04 11:16 PM	+113	-122
07/04 04:09 PM	+112	-121
07/04 04:09 PM	+107	-116
07/04 04:08 PM	+104	-112
07/04 04:04 PM	+106	-114
07/04 01:54 PM	+104	-112
07/04 01:15 PM	+110	-119

 

[vitterd]

Nice hit, Michelangelo! The pitcher's duel unfolded just as you predicted. :aktion033

Of course poker fraud vtard lives up to his name, this time getting caught using stale lines. :>(

You got caught lying again Joe.....I mean, how many times can you possibly get busted doing this?

 

[vitterd]

Amazing isn't it Guesser? That is at least the 3rd time I've been accused of that by the same whacked out people and once again you post the accurate information to prove they were wrong. Will a word of apology be uttered this time? It wasnt any of the other times.....just amazing people here.

Thanks once again gain for setting the record straight.

 

[ScottL]

Nice hit, Michelangelo! The pitcher's duel unfolded just as you predicted. :aktion033

Of course poker fraud vtard lives up to his name, this time getting caught using stale lines. :>(

Joe ..... DON'T

 

[ScottL]

After looking at the betting I'm going to stay clear of that Wash / Cincy game, myself, Scott.

WASH last 9 Home = 9-0 by 45-10 combined score.
CIN last 22 Road = 5-17 by combined 62-98 score.
So WAS = -120 here???

It's funny how MLB differs from NBA. If I see a move like this in NBA I'll generally oppose it and the Fave that was knocked down from -7 to -3.5 will bury the Dog. Not in MLB though. These mystery moves? The opener was exactly where the Line should have been. And remember, just because a Line flies 45 cents doesn't mean millions and millions of dollars were bet on CIN. It could be one group bets 10K at both 5D and CRIS. Now every other Book is copying the move without writing a Bet. And the uninformed might say, "but look at this Line crash Scott. The Books got killed on this game!" Nah, a couple of Books lost a few Bets on it. The majority of action in MLB on a weekday is written by local guys who are open between 6-7:35. I'd wager they wrote nothing but Nats. JMO

 

[ScottL]

http://www.madduxsports.com/line_history.php?host=MADDUX&book=14&game=951&period=0&date=2015-07-06

http://www.madduxsports.com/line_history.php?host=MADDUX&book=1&game=951&period=0&date=2015-07-06

CRIS and 5D Line movement on above Game.

 

[vitterd]

Joe ..... DON'T

I wish you didn't open the door by mentioning a line change 20 mins after I posted my pick....we should all know by now what kind of people a few of these guys are.

Everytime ive posted a pick at this site it has been with the line I got.....and that's been proven....even when a few others tried to suggest otherwise. Willie, jdeuce, acebb and joe all have done it before and they have always been proven they are incorrect. Thanks to The Guesser on pointing them out each time.

 

[ScottL]

0-2 tonight (-2,250)

get a little worried a bad run is coming when I see these types of losses

horrific base running blunders for Padres loss

wong saves the day for cards in bottom half and then Cubs third baseman throws the ball away in the top half.

Gonna tread lightly next few days.

I believe you always bet LESS when losing and increase unit size during a Winning Streak.
But I don't really believe in bettor momentum as much as I believe in team momentum. Teams go into hot and cold streaks. Sometimes the reasons are apparent, other times just weirdness. The SF Giants have had so many crazy losing streaks. Last year in the Summer I believe at one point they lost 28 out of 38. Then they just catch fire and everything gels when it needs to. Weird huh?

But for bettors I think it's different because it's about methodology. If there are 31 days in a month I'll have a few streaky periods in both directions. But I think that's just randomness. If we as bettors use the same variables we'll go hot and cold a lot less than the teams do. Your feeling that a dry spell is coming well, don't talk yourself into it. Nobody who goes 32-15 is going to be 64-30.