Poll - KC at Tenn

[jaypaw]

I know Tennessee is banged up but unless there are any new injuries to Tennesse (on top of the already massive list of injured players) I dont see why they shouldnt at least be laying 3 in their own house.

I wanna take a look at a few games that stick out in my mind and provide a pretty good before and after picture of KC's season thus far:

BEFORE (21 home games)
Week 3: Houston AT KC
KC was favored by -9.5, lost by 3
Holmes 134 yds rushing
Difference maker: Houston interception return for TD, 49 yd FG at end of game

and Week 8: Indy AT KC
KC underdog by 2.5, won by 10
Holmes 144 yds rushing
Gonzales 125 yds receiving
Difference maker: KC's ability to capitalize in the air and on the ground on Indy's overall weak D, 4th quarter interception in the endzone by KC's Wesley.


AFTER (2 road games)

week 10: KC at NO
KC was favored by 3, KC lost by 7
Blaylock 186 yds rushing
Difference maker: NO outplayed KC for field position in the second half - KC 2 interceptions and a fumble in the second half, NO 2 punts, 2 FGs, 1TD in second half.

week 13: KC at Oakland
Game fluctuated from -1 pk or +1, KC won by 7
Johnson/Blaylock 155 yds rushing
Kennison 149 yds receiving
Difference maker: Kennisons 70 yd TD reception, and 2 other long scoring drives in the second half led by kennison's receiving and Johnson's (33yd long).



My questions are:
BEFORE
Without Holmes would they have been able to hang with Houston, and defeat Indy?
AFTER
Are New Orleans and Oakland any better than Tennessee?

The Oakland game to me is the most useful to cap out tonights game in Tennessee. It was a road game for KC without holmes against a team that hasn't been able to get their stuff together this year. The pointspread is about the same (at pk [-115 KC] now). Also KC is still the 2nd or 3rd best overall offense and still has the 2nd or 3rd to worst defense.


The similarities are many - but here are the differences:
Tennessee has a middle of the pack D and a middle of the pack O
Oakland is 4th from the worst overall on D, and 4 teams below Tennessee in terms of offensive yds per game.

Now that Trent Green has had a week to let his sore ribs set in I wonder if it might be worth a bet on Tennessee to win at home here.

What do you think?

 

[ElIguana]

I like the over 52.5, jaypaw, not even trying to pick a side.

Griefs win when they should lose against the big boys (Ravens, Colts, Falcons, almost Patriots) and find a way to lose games they should win (every other game this season). They will score a lot of points and give up a lot of points, and I am more confident in that fact than in trying to outguess whether or not they will give the game away in the final 2 minutes (I am guessing they will). GL

 

[docgone]

El do you really think Tenn will do there part:drink:

 

[Hooty]

Doc, love that picture...Where did you get it???

 

[GoFlamesGo!]

KC and the over, without a doubt

 

[jaypaw]

So KC will just destroy Tennessee?

Please answer the questions:

#1 Why did they struggle with Oakland AND Lose to New Orleans?

#1a Is Tennessee any worse then Oakland or New Orleans?

#2 Would they have beaten Indy by 10 without the Priest?

#2a would KC have been completely killed by Houston had Holmes not played that game?

 

[Marco]

Why did they lose to New Orleans? Maybe Jesus was on New Orleans side, and because Jesus is undefeated, KC had to lose.

A lot of comparisons can be made on paper, which give edges to one team over another.....great if they come out like it says it should on paper....but then again that's why they play the game and that's why they call it gambling. Crap happens like turnovers and fluke plays that can't be accurately factored in happen....

Not trying to bust your stones....Good luck on whatever you choose to bet on the game....

Personally I'm going to pass on the side and just bet the over cuz this looks like it could be a 40ish to 20ish ending......either team could have the most points....

 

[ElIguana]

Docgone, KC pass defense is horrible. They will give up 4 TDs and KC offense should score 4 TDs. In exchange for this information, I expect 1 hour in the rubber room with the woman in your avatar.

 

[jaypaw]

Right - I'm just trying to get as many facts nailed down as possible.

As always the end result could have nothing to do with the facts - but GoflamesGO posted that KC would be the right side "without a doubt" so I'm specifically trying to get out of him some answers to the above questions.


Though I'm not quite sure what to make of it yet I do expect the following answers:

#1 Why did they struggle with Oakland AND Lose to New Orleans?

"Because they were adjusting to having teams play them knowing for a full week in advance (each) that Holmes would not have a chance to play - NO was the first game and it caught them by suprise (plus a couple of fluke plays).

#1a Is Tennessee any worse then Oakland or New Orleans?

"maybe they are better - BUT See above answer... KC has made the adjustment by now without the priest - and will win hands down"

#2 Would they have beaten Indy by 10 without the Priest?

"no but this is irrelevant - they have made the adjustment now and between Blaylock, Gonzalez, and Kennison they will have no problem putting up points against a damaged tennessee D"

#2a would KC have been completely killed by Houston had Holmes not played that game?

"Probably so but Tennessee lost to houston twice by 10 both times - so this is irrelevant"



Again these are the answers I expect and I'm just mulling over the facts to see if anything sticks out. I dont mean to put words in anyones mouth but I'm just trying to get a good honest feel for both sides.

 

[jaypaw]

Iguana I think you have hit the nail on the head - the KC D overall is not good. We know their offense will probably come to play in one way or another.

The real question is: Does the McNairless Tennessee offense have what it takes to keep up - and take advantage of what the KC D will undoubtedly offer.

Volek has only played in 5 games thus far and he's only won 1 of them (cinncy). He did keep it close vs the ailing chicago D (loss by 3) but after the 3 TD passes he tossed in the 1st quarter vs Indy he was NOT able to keep up with the Colts scoring...

Here's a good one, answer this for me?

IF Volek puts up 3 TDs in the first quarter vs KC tonight, will KC be able to outplay them the rest of the way like Indy did last week?

 

[ElIguana]

As great as Priest Holmes is, the Chiefs' running game has not missed him one bit. Derrick Blaylock and Larry Johnson have racked up 100+ yard games in his absence behind that great o-line.

I'm a Chiefs fan, fellas, and they cost me a lot of $$ early this season by pissing away games and blowing covers. I finally wised up and started playing overs and it has cashed.......better than trying to pick a side IMO.

 

[GoFlamesGo!]

Sorry Jaypaw. I meant my side is KC and the over is "without a doubt." I beleive KC is the right side here. Yes Holmes isn't playing but I think Blaylock and Johnson can carry the load. Gonzales it playing awesome right now and plus Volek is playing. If McNair was playing I would be looking at this differently.

I think this game will be decided by less than a TD, which is why I have a 7 pt teaser:

KC+7
Over 45.5

You do pose some good questions though.

 

[GoFlamesGo!]

I'm also a huge KC fan so take my words for what they are worth. I really don't think they are as bad as their record. I can't wait for next week against Denver

 

[jaypaw]

"Chiefs' running game has not missed him one bit"

True thier running game has not missed him on paper BUT

Holmes has been out for the last 4 games - and they have won 1 of those 4 games.

Yes you can argue that New England doesnt exactly 'count' and that two of the other games were on the road but clearly teams are not gearing up for KC in the same way that they would if holmes were expected to play.

I wouldnt know how to prove it but I'll at least raise the point that maybe the success of blaylock and johnson is due to teams underpreparing for the KC running game, and letting them slip in under the radar.

By now teams have to how KC is gonna come out and play - using the size of their line to their advantage.

I dont know how big Tennessee's D up front is - does anyone know off the top of their head? Or how they have fared against other big O lines?

 

[jaypaw]

Thats cool flames - I know what you mean.

I'm shocked at the lopsided vote going on.

So many votes and so few responses.


People have opinions they just arent sharing them.

Chime in guys. I wanna hear it - even if its just a gut feeling I'd like everyone to be accounted for if you have the time.

Thanks

 

[Bizzie]

the way tenn scored on Indy in the first half they should easily put up 28-35 on KC, I'm on the over only, KC scares me alone, but I know the will put up some points

 

[golfingarkansas]

never figure league kansas city looks better on paper but tenn has not won at

home but once to all season, to sell season tickets for next yr i'm going titans!

season ticket selling angle only one home win so far!

ga

 

[jaypaw]

Good point Biz - KC certainly isn't as good an offense as Indy, but their defense is just as bad.

That said KC still has the tools to get the jobs done if it comes down to a shootout.



Golfing - thats a funny angle, I wonder if their season tickets will drop way off now with Mcnair leaving

 

[ElIguana]

GoFlamesGo, KC is definitely capable of better than their current 4-8 record. Their offense can go toe-to-toe with any in the NFL, but they have made some critical errors/turnovers/coaching blunders at inopportune times that cost them. Their defense is decimated with injuries and hasn't been able to stop anyone, just slow them down a bit. They definitely have more talent than most other teams with a sub .500 record, but no team goes to the playoffs based on woulda coulda shouldas.

It would not surprise me at all to see the Cheifs win by 20 tonight. It would not surprise me at all to see them lose by 20 tonight. But I will be SHOCKED if fewer than 50 points are scored in the game. GL

 

[golfingarkansas]

jaypaw, is this a done deal, is he not coming back

Golfing - thats a funny angle, I wonder if their season tickets will drop way off now with Mcnair leaving[/QUOTE]