Polish British picks - best run of ever!- Rafalek

[Janek]

Hi everybody, Rafalek has chosen Serie A this time:

SAMPDORIA - LECCE

Lecce goes to one of the hottest camps in Italian Serie A. The fans in Genoa strongly believe in the particpation of their beloved team in the UEFA championship, and I think that it is very probable because the fixture is favourable for Sampdoria. They have to score points in the games against the teams from the middle of the classification as their last mathes will be the games against Juve and Roma. So the point is to gain points in the matches like the present one and in the next one against Ancona. Sampdoria will do anything that is possible to win 3 points today. Sampdoria played very well against Bologne (3-2)- the coach was very satsisfied and one week ago Sampdoria noted unfair draw against Empoli (1-1) losing goal in the last minutes of the match. The Sampdoria's goalkeeper Antonioli has been especially praised recently, he received high note for his last performance from the newspaper "La Gazzetta dello Sport". Sampdoria's players are pissed off that they lost three points in the last game against Empoli in the last minutes of the game.
In today's game, after yellow cards pause, we will see Doni - it will be strong reinforcement for Sampdoria. Yanagisawa will not play - he has been called up to the National A-team game but it is not a big problem as ha hasn't been included in the first squad recently. In the forward line, Bazzani will play rather with Flachi and not Cipriani.
Lecce has been perfrorming well recently but after the defeat against Peruggia their run seems to have ended. They are close to the bottom of the table and now they have to fight for the safe position in the classification.
There has been some news spreaded recently that Milan has been interested in the purchase of the Lecce's argentinian player Ledesma and it is sure that when such a big club indiciates its interest in the particular player, this player thinks more of his future club than of his present one.
Lecce's goalkeeper Sicignano has a very bad physical biorythm and Sampdoria will attack (because they can not play by the means of counter-attack, as the coach has recently said) in order to win the UEFA place in the final classification.
Lecce does not play well in the away games. They have won some points thanks to their counter-attack play, their great obstacle that is difficult to surpass is the distance that they have to cross in the away games.
Gabriele will be the referee of today's match - he has conducted two Sampdoria's matches in the last 50 days. Sampdoria's players and club officials know the referee better than their opponents from the south. Gabriele was the referee of Sampdoria's match against Bologna (3-2) and he gave Sampdoria a penalty kick. More than 50% of the games that were conducted by this referee ended as victories of the home teams - not bad.
Gabriele has poor emotional biorythm today so it is probable that he may got influenced by the reaction of the Sampdoria's fans and he will make 2,3 wrong decisions.
Concluding, the best choice is to take home win. The odds are attractive. I think that Sampdoria will win this 1-0. Empoli is similar team to Lecce, and if Sampdoria controlled the first half against Empoli in the away game it is natural that they will be able to implement their style of play in the home game against Lecce. Sampdoria is heading for the UEFA matches.

PICK: 1.......... ODDS:1.80............. BET365

 

[acw]

PICK: 1.......... ODDS:1.80............. BET365
May I be bookie?!

Best price now -101.50 at Indosoccer.
And those that want to lay Sampdoria can do that on BetFair at 1.97

 

[bongzanpoker]

does the site have an english format?

thanks

 

[tonymontana+]

goal in the last minute destroyed the bet.
I hope this is not the beginning of a new 0 - 16 series.

To be honest it was very close and i missed the play anyway.

 

[Janek]

The goal in the 94th minute is no excuse for a tipster, the pick is lost and that's it
Sampdoria- Lecce 2:2 FT

regards

 

[Janek]

Hi everybody, another one of Rafalek's picks comes:

HEDNESFORD TOWN - DOVER ATHLETIC

Dr. Martens Premier League. Hednesford has been performing very well recently, won in the first FA Trophy semifinal in away game against Aldershot 2-0 on Saturday. It's a big success for Hednesford. The team played very well and thanks to this victory has been praised in whole Staffordshire. When one has been really doing everything extremely well, it's difficult to stop him. Hednesford has stiffened and has been performing very well. After their poor game against Crawley (1-6) the team has been reinforced by Jordan King and the manager changed the system of play. The victory over Cambridge City 1-0 and now the victory over Aldershot seem to be the consequences of the changes. The fans are satisfied with the deffensive performance of the team especially. It consists of experienced players.
Hedenesford purchased two new players yesterday so the internal competition has been growing significantly.
Steve Plamer the captain of Hednesford and Chris Gray come back to to the squad today. Lee Barrow will not play because of injury.
If it comes to Dover, the team has been performing poor recently. Dover's fans say that they have not seen their team performing so bad for long time. Recently Dover lost against Cambridge (Cambridge was cotrolling the game in the first half, in the second Dover's attacks didn't change anything), before that game Dover lost against Margate in Kent Senior Cup 1-3, noted draws against Chippenham and very poor Hinckley.
The bookmakers perhaps are not aware of the fact that today the first goalkeeper of Dover will not play because of injury and that the captain of the team will not be able to play either. Dover fans have been claiming the dismissal of the manager Langley that is said to have no influence upon the players. Some say that few players have beeen performing against their manager. People have been requesting 4-4-2 system while Langley keeps 4-5-1 and sometimes changes it into 3-5-2 because he knows that there is only one valuable forward in the team. Concluding the morale of the team is not very good. The club has also finance problems. I have seen Dover's defence and I can tell that it is easy to be defeated, there are many unexperienced players there.
When it comes to the "stretching" of the play from one side to another Dover's defenders are too late, they do not react on time and it generates the one-on-one situations. Without Arnott everything looks very bad. Some time ago Dover was defeated by Worcester 5-1. As for the attack line it is not better at all. The team has no clear opportunities to score. If they score, they do it accidentally and do not deserve that, vide the goal against Margate, which was the consequence of the goalkeeper's mistake, another goal against Hinckley was scored by rebound. Generally against Cambridge City Dover attacked in the second half but it looked pretty bad - only centres that were missed or long distance shots. Dover had no clear situations to score. Before the match against Cambridge, Dover's manager said that against Cambridge they would be satisfied with the draw which made Dover's fans furious.
I have been analysing the process and the actions of today's match and I concluded that if Dover plays 4-5-1 and will thicken the middlefield of the game and Hednesford will play something more brave like 4-4-3 (they surprised Aldershot with this system) there will be many centres with the omission of the midfielders and the Hednesford's forwards will jump higher than the Dover's defenders. Hednesford is really on their run and if the Dover's fans say that they have not seen such poor performance of their team in the recent years they can not lie. As I wrote before, the defence of the home team has been playing very well and on the contrary the defence of the away team has been performing bad, so if it comes to punch for punch game Hednesford should win. The away team has long distance to travel to arrive in Staffordshire.
In the recent years the confrontations between those two teams have always ended with the victory of the home team. Not so long ago Hednesford won over Dover at home 1-0.
We have to add also psychological factor- both teams played recently against Cambridge City- Hednesford won, Dover lost. Hednesford has better biorythms today, they will jump higher and kick stronger.
The home team fans are in very good mood after the victory over Aldershot and many fans will come to support. Personally instead of displaying 2,40 I would put 1,85 for Hednesford victory. I can see here some pretty good valuebet. If Hednesford wants to finish at least on the 13th position, they have to win such matches as this one against Dover. They have to chase such teams as Dover. I played this match in my mind and the FT was 2-0 for Hednesford. It is possible that Anthrobus will score, I can remember him when he played in TNS against Polonia in UEFA Cup and scored one goal.

PICK: 1.......... ODDS:2.40............. BET365

They did not believe, and he came and showed them,
We're heading for championship!!!

 

[acw]

Is it Rafalek or BET365 that we are trying to promote here?
Or are we trying to promote the English countryside?

 

[Janek]

I do not get your post, there are only two bokmakers that offer this match, besides Rafalek keeps posting the odds from the same bookie all the time because he always plays there, I can not see anything wrong about it. Why do people always search for kind of hidden stories behind simple things?

regards

 

[JackDee]

ok janek, acw made a fair point, but accept this as a seasoned gamblers doubt, and move on, with the picks, which MIGHT prove worthwhile.

 

[tonymontana+]

3 in a row. Looks like another series to me.

 

[Janek]

CANVEY ISLAND - TELFORD

Second game of the FA Trophy semifinal. In the first match the final score was 0-0. The leader of Ryman League wins almost everything (16-2-1) - there is huge difference between Canvey and others. Week ago there were many opportunities to score from both sides, but Canvey Island played better.
I think that playing with the present squad Canvey would succeed in playing in III Division. Having such players as Lee Boylan or Gooden is a great potential.The team has been created in the perspective of Nationwide and many players have signed cocntracts owing to this.
They have been not playing so well in Ryman recently. There have been some results different than victory, it is normal that a team which has 20 points advantage loses sometimes, the coach gives chances to play to other players.
Telford has financial problems. Many players had to permit to cut their salaries 50% down. A local radio broadcasted that two players are extremely dissappointed with that but they can have some motivation as some money is to win now, but I think their capcities will be not enough for team from Essex.
Canvey Island plays very well at home- creates many opportunities to score and if they corrected their deffensive play we would receive a winning machine in lower division. In FA Trophy they won over Maidenhead (4-0), Stalybridge (4-0) or Farnborough (Nationwide team) 6-0. Against Stalybridge they have created many opportunities to score the same was with Maidenhead. Canvey when plays at home and goes into punch for punch usually wins and Telford has not been playing well recently, they have lost even against Forest Green Rovers. They lost also against Chester 0-2 and let their opponents have many opportunities to score either.
If Canvey Island has won over FAT teams, why shouldn't it repeat their success against Telford that has reached semifinal only because the Crewe manager gave his second squad the opportunity to play.
One will see a captain Gergory back on the field today. Canvey will play its best squad today. In the rival team there will be four fundamental players back on the field either, among them Lee Mills- but it is not known whether they will play from the first minute. There will be about 1500 - 2000 fans on the stadium. There is 16 000 sterlings prepared for the winner in this confrontation. There will be rather no extra time when we consider the style of play of Canvey.
Ryman League leader is much better from the point of view of potential. I have observed the odds and it dropped down from 2.10 to 2.00 but I would personally display 1.72. I think that home team will jump higner and kick stronger, They play for something today.

PICK: 1.......... ODDS:2.00............. BET365

 

[Janek]

Previous match FT 1-1, next one:

WHITBY TOWN - FRICKLEY ATHLETIC

Unibond Premier League. Whitby fights for the dreamed 13th position in the classification. No more than two months ago Whitby was one of the poorest UPL teams, but they began to win the successive matches. They used to lose many goals in the past but now they are playing well in the defence. In their last two matches they have lost no goal, and moreover thay created many opportunities to score. They drew in the away game against Barrow 0-0 which for many teams is something difficult to achieve and they also defeated Runcom 1-0 at home playing without one player and fighting as lions. It is also difficult to achieve as Runcom plays very well in the away teams and they win many points due to their dangerous counter-attacks. After the match against Barrow, the manager Dunn was satisfied with the performance of his players. Well performance of the goalkeeper Campbell, well organized defence, well performance of the forwards are all the factors that confirm the good play of Seasiders. If in the game against Marine they had not let the opposite game score in the last minutes they would have now very good position in the table.
The defender Hall got red card in the match against Halton so he has to pause and he has to give all his has in the match against Frickley. The leader of the midfield line Craig Veart has been performing outstandingly well recently.
Frickley plays not well in the away games (3-3-14) and occupies third last position in the classification. Of the last 16 matches they won only one match against Blyth Spartans- the team that is classified even in the lower position than Frickley. Not so long ago Frickley lost against Stalybridge 0-5 having committed many defence errors. In the last matches they have not lost so many goals but still lose the games and sometimes draw. In the tuesday match against Bardford Park Avenue they were playing better but it did not reflect the result - FT 0-1. The Frickley's manager purchased some players but these players are from lower divisions - they are not reinforcement to the team. Although some key players are coming back to the Frickley's squad for the match against Whitby, it is not enough for well performing Whitby.
Whitby Town dreams of the place in the at least 13. position at the end of the season. Thanks to that, they could perform in the Northern Conference without necessity of playing additional games. They must win this game because their direct rivals in the classification have one more game to play. Their rivals have also some easier matches to play in the future so owing to this Whitby must win the match against Frickley.
Frickley is playing against Wakefield & Emley on Monday and it appears that it is more realistic to win some points on Monday than in the game against Whitby in North Yorkshire.
PICK: 1.......... ODDS:2.00............. BET365

 

[Janek]

FT 2:1 WON

 

[Janek]

Another one, but in shorter version as there is little time:


BRECHIN CITY - FALKIRK

Scottish Divison 1. Outsider plays against a regular team. Brechin City lost against Caley Thistle in the middle of the week and their chances to play in the 1 Division next season are almost none.
Before that match, Brechin lost against another poor team Ayr (0-3). In both matches Brechin had many opportunities to score but unfortunately there is no one there that can finalize the actions and score. The forward Duffy is still injured. and Winter purchased from Cowdenbeath does not play well.
Falkirk played against strong teams recently, such as Clyde and St. Johnstone. They learned something and it should benefit in the present match. Falkirk played well against and Clyde, so it should play well today either. Latapy has played very well recently, he shoots a lot, I am sure that he will perform well today. Falkirk played well against St. Johnstone either, it was close to draw in this match.
As one may read in Falkirk Herald, some of the Falikirk players have been renegotiating their contracts so it would not make them any good if they lost today's game.
Very important information- as one may read in Brechin Advertiser in Brechin City fans have already accepted the relegation and the manager has already begun the formation of a new team in order to win promotion next season. The manager is going to test some new players and new systems of play in the today's match.
Brechin will play without its key goalkeeper that was injured in the last match. The forward Hampshire is also injured - so the offensive potential is rather poor. In Falkirk, the forward Lee will not play, but he did not play against Clyde either and the performance of the team was pretty good. In Falkirk McAnespie comes back to the squad but the midfielder Rahim will not play for sure.
In the h2h analisis Falkirk looks better - they won twice at home, in the away matches they drew 2-2. If Ayr may score 3 goals in the away game against Brechin, I think Falkirk will score at least 2 goals.
I played this match in my mind and the final score was the victory of Falkirk 2-1. I play this match because I follow my strict rule in bookmaking - when a regular team has played well recently against strong teams it will perform better against a bit poorer teams from the lower level in the next matches.


PICK: 2.......... ODDS:2.10............. BET365

 

[acw]

Also available on Ladbrokes at 2.10

 

[Janek]

Brechin - Falkirk 0:1 FT - 2nd WON in a row, let's see whether a new big run begins

?

 

[Janek]

Hi everybody, another one from Rafalek:


AYLESBURY UNITED - KETTERING TOWN

Ryman League. Kettering performs much better than two months ago. They climbed in the table and has not lost in the last 9 games. Their last 3 matches: victory over Maidenhead (great performance of the goalkeeper Kettering), draw against Bedford (basing upon the opinions of the observers they were much better and should have won by the difference of 2,3 goals, but they did not manage to score in the clear situations) and the victory over very poor Braintree Town.
Kattering performs well in the deffensive formations (they have not lost more than one goal since long) and performs in the attcking formation superbly either - it is mainly because of great performance of Darren Lynch. This player is very clever in the confrontation against the defenders of the opposite teams.
Today's rival is an outsider - Aylesbury. There has been many personal changes made there during the season. Now it is a young team (only 2-3 experienced players) and instead of being in the middle of the classificaion table they occupy the last position in the league.
In the last 4 matches they did not score one single goal, they did not manage to score even in the match against another outsider Braintree. The manager, although they lost against Basingstoke in the last match 0-2, was satisfied with the deffensive performance of the team. But on the other hand, against Braintree and St. Albans the defence played horrible. The one exception was the game against Hornhurch, where Aylesbury concentrated only on the defence in order not to be smashed by the opposite team.
In Aylesbury there are rumours about a new manager, they want to start everything from the beginning, one of the candidates is Kevin Wilson- the present manager of Kettering.
If Kettering wins this match it will guarantee their promotion to a new established Conference II. Apart from today's match Kettering will play two matches against Canvey Island and Hendon- two teams that are leaders in Ryman League. If Ford, Basingstoke and Maidenhead will win their matches they can overtake Kettering, so Kettering must win today against poor Aylesbury. Aylesbury is the nearest away game for Kattering in Ryman League, and because Kettering has many fans there will be many of them on today's match.
Kettering has some slight injuries but they should win even with that. It is important to confirm the place in the first 13 already now, without unnecessary nerves afterwards. Aylesbury has been performing better recently but I think it is not enough for Kettering Town.
The away team today will have motivation and they should jump 2,3 centimeters higher. I played this game in my mind and the final result was 2-1 for Kettering. As I said before, Lynch has been playing well recently and he is very good in aerial performance especially. It is him who should score one of the goals today. The central defender of Aylesbury - Adam Garner has poor biorythms today.

PICK: 2.......... ODDS:1.90............. BET365

 

[acw]

Oh no! Not again!

Janek,
Any other books besides Bet365 that take these leagues?

 

[Janek]

Aylesbury - Kettering FT 0:2 WON 3rd one in a row

By the way this the part of the prediction:

"As I said before, Lynch has been playing well recently and he is very good in aerial performance especially. It is him who should score one of the goals today"

Lynch 0-2 87'

The guy predicted once again the goalscorer and was close to predicting of the correct score... let's wait for the 4th time WON in a row..

 

[matahari]

Is this guy actually able to watch these games ?