Are you betting $100 on the dog ML and $100 on the favorite RL every game of the season which would mean an outlay of about $3,000 per day if all teams are playing? I believe your research is good and you are looking at sports wagers from an investment standpoint rather than from a gambling standpoint which is difficult for many to grasp that are pure gamblers....very interesting methodology and appreciate your ideas and research. Thanks.....JJ
fallow his research is based on playing dog on the moneyline and favorite on the runline which are both plus wagers.....you have mistated this above. How would anyone know you are connected? How would anyone know who is successful at sports wagering? People lie....people exagerrate and some are fooling themselves when they call themselves professionals. The only way to win is learn as much as you can from those who show that their system of handicapping works by posting or sharing with you the formulas they use and you yourself testing them over a long period of time. Like any other endeavor the winners will be the few who do research and study the best angles and ways to benefit from smart bets. The rest will be licky somedays and unlucky others. It is wrong to set yourself up as the answer without showing your value over a long period of time imho.
I could see picking your spots with it. For example when an ace is on the mound against a weak hitting lineup. Like Halliday the other day vs KC. 4-0 Or maybe do it on the 5 inning line. Then the RL is only -.5 a run So the Fav just has to be ahead after the 5th.
How often is the game going to be tied after the fifth with one of the top ten pitchers on the mound? Ok I think it happened yesterday with the Marlins/Cards at 3-3 but I bet it is rare. Fla. not considered a weak lineup so maybe not a spot that would have been selected.
How often is the game going to be tied after the fifth with one of the top ten pitchers on the mound? Ok I think it happened yesterday with the Marlins/Cards at 3-3 but I bet it is rare. Fla. not considered a weak lineup so maybe not a spot that would have been selected.
All I am saying is the strategy that he relayed will not make anyone any one a "living with sports betting." Now as far as me having connections, and believing me. Sure their are a lot of scams out their, so apparently you will have to see me over the long haul that I am who I say I am. As far as the guy saying I sound retarded, he is simply immature. That is the problem with many people they judge, assume, speculate, etc.. And that's why a lot of people are not successful. A lot of unsuccessful people are not only ignorant, but they are negative as well. You see, I can respond back to him and say he's retarded. But what do I accomplish. nothing. For those who look to be successful, which is VERY FEW. You can't let people like "parlayallday" steer you away, or any person- such as your family members or relative. Their will always be jealous people, and also individuals who watch other people make things happen, and they themselves sit around like lazy ass bums and do nothing. I could say that parlayallday is a bum, but it wouldn't benefit me. All I am doing is assuming, which he was about me. But furthermore I would like to say him, with your attitude you will have a lot of troubling days in your life. Good luck to you parlayallday, which the name their sounds RETARDED. LOL. Parlay all day, ha. Only retardeds think they can do parlays all day, but SMART people like myself know that straight bets are the way to go.You'll probaly be on the side of the road with a sign up parlayallday begging for food. lol. Im just assuming parlayallday that's all, just like you was about me- in regards to how i sound. lol.
Wo! Now you contradict yourself. You say you're a positive person, but just before you call me retarded. I think you're the retarded one. And you can listen to the fact that i have connections, or not listen to it. But I am saying that just to say i am good, you can get my picks and you will make money.
Looking at the lines on the 5 inn. It does NOT seem like we can get plus $$ on both sides as easily as one might think. I actually got those numbers for Bos/NYY game at two different books. But as LGH mentioned we should line shop in order to get the best results.
Sparty, I am just thinking that if we take the bullpen out of the equation we would be better off. If we are picking our spots then we are thinking that our stud starter is going to go at least 6 innings. If he does not... it is most likely due to the fact that the DOG has gotten enough runs to knock him out and they are probably winning by the 5th.
This bet wins as long as there is not a tie at the end 5.
Sparty, I am just thinking that if we take the bullpen out of the equation we would be better off. If we are picking our spots then we are thinking that our stud starter is going to go at least 6 innings. If he does not... it is most likely due to the fact that the DOG has gotten enough runs to knock him out and they are probably winning by the 5th.
This bet wins as long as there is not a tie at the end 5.
for FALLOW
enough with the shit talk, "if u follow me its the way to go", "I am a solid capper with 20 posts with no history but Im spewin shit-talk out my ass that im the sweetest"
Maybe u could use those 20 posts to put up or shut up, not telling everyone that yur solid as a rock postin plays, there is no need for 6 posts in a row sayin "im good, im great, follow my plays!!"
I ask u one question, is the proof in the pudding?
answer:not now not yet and probably not ever.!~~~!
there are other ways to get attention
enough with the shit talk, "if u follow me its the way to go", "I am a solid capper with 20 posts with no history but Im spewin shit-talk out my ass that im the sweetest"
Maybe u could use those 20 posts to put up or shut up, not telling everyone that yur solid as a rock postin plays, there is no need for 6 posts in a row sayin "im good, im great, follow my plays!!"
I ask u one question, is the proof in the pudding?
answer:not now not yet and probably not ever.!~~~!
there are other ways to get attention
Many expressed that it would work on higher totals. I tested it for totals >9 (as 9 is the average number for a total) from 2008.
When the total is greater than 9, the favorite had a 453-335 (57.49%) record. That meant there were 335 wins by the dog. Of these 453 wins by a favorite, 123 were by one run (27.15%). That meant we netted a 335 + (453-123) = 665-123 record.
The average lay on the dog was +132 and the average favorite line was -144. A spread of -144 would net you a run line of +125 (my conversion may be wrong).
So we calculate the arbitrage bet and we lay $196.98 to win $28.02. That's a spread of -703 on average, even worse than our initial results.
-703 * 123 = -86469
100 * 665 = 66500
Profit = -19969
Turns out it's even worse for high totals, which leads me to believe it's great for small totals.
When the total is greater than 9, the favorite had a 453-335 (57.49%) record. That meant there were 335 wins by the dog. Of these 453 wins by a favorite, 123 were by one run (27.15%). That meant we netted a 335 + (453-123) = 665-123 record.
The average lay on the dog was +132 and the average favorite line was -144. A spread of -144 would net you a run line of +125 (my conversion may be wrong).
So we calculate the arbitrage bet and we lay $196.98 to win $28.02. That's a spread of -703 on average, even worse than our initial results.
-703 * 123 = -86469
100 * 665 = 66500
Profit = -19969
Turns out it's even worse for high totals, which leads me to believe it's great for small totals.
