there isn't a right or wrong answer to this really. Some people, like me, enjoy learning more about the teams and hearing about opposing views on a game. I don't expect anyone to come here and post their winning 'system'. But as another poster mentioned, most of us have a certain teams we know better than others and sharing that knowledge can help us all formulate our own views. Although I have certainly followed others just because they have had a hot hand, for me the enjoyment in this hobby is intellectual, mathematical and of course $$$$. But I strive to understand and appreciate those that are willing to share their thoughts. I had a pretty good thesis on the Maryland at Texas game to start the season that I posted here as I know the teams in the Big 12 better than others. Luckily I was correct on that outcome, but even if I was wrong, I think I pointed out a few salient points that were not well known to many on here.
Yes. Totally statistically based. Some don't like this approach because the thought is that numbers may be deceiving. Maybe so, but they never lie. The eye can deceive much easier than the numbers can.
Anyway, the first 3 weeks are based somewhat on pre-season projections that I create. From there on, it is raw stats. I only use the last 4 weeks of stats, as anything prior to that is old news. Teams can adjust quickly to weaknesses, or do something that triggers an uptick in play. The way I do it is that every team is labeled on offense - run, pass and balanced. Most teams are balanced in that they are somewhere around 55% run (give or take). I then look at the opposing teams defense against that bias. So in the example I gave above, Arizona was a running team - and Houston was, according to my projections, a Top 10 run defense. On the other side of the ball, Houston was balanced, and Arizona was projected by my stats to be a bad defense in general (100th or above). Thus, the line of 1 to me was ridiculous, despite Houston being on the road. I use these rankings to get a projected score, and then adjust based on power ratings and teams that are over or under-rated in certain spots (home dogs, etc.).
Iamhuge you have a valid point that I don't necessarily disagree with. I also like to have reasons why a team is 11 points better then another team.
Problem is, for example, my NFL plays are strictly fades. I am not gonna put info up like Atlanta has 38.7% more rushing yards then New Orleans therefore they will beat them by more then 1 1/2.
Was 2 and 0 last Sunday so like others have said, we are dealing in a results business here.
BTW I like your write-ups, along with o fred's they are very good.
Problem is, for example, my NFL plays are strictly fades. I am not gonna put info up like Atlanta has 38.7% more rushing yards then New Orleans therefore they will beat them by more then 1 1/2.
Was 2 and 0 last Sunday so like others have said, we are dealing in a results business here.
BTW I like your write-ups, along with o fred's they are very good.
I understand and yes I appreciate some of the posters that have solid records without write ups. But even these guys should provide a write up here and there, too, IMO.
Oklahoma was decimated on defense last year, a lot of top quality players returned to play against OSU... no mention of that by anybody.
Last year they did very very well despite playing a ton of second stringers on D.
So this year they are healthier and have power on both sides of the ball, lost two top RB's but have one of the best QB's in the land and perhaps the best OL in the NCAA.
So with a solid D they had a good outlook getting 7 points against a overrated vanilla OSU offense.
Did anybody write any of that?
OK here is my final statement...
A guy posts Giants + 4 1/2
Does he know when he post it that one of the best wide receivers in football is out, or not? Line went to 6, so he probably did not. So how do we know? If he said yes Beckham is out but the Giants D is still strong enough to contain Dallas and with Marshall and Ingram etc they have enough receivers to get the ball to...
But no, just "Giants + 4 1/2" so we do not know if the handicapper is taking that into consideration or thinks Beckham is playing.... see?
A guy posts Giants + 4 1/2
Does he know when he post it that one of the best wide receivers in football is out, or not? Line went to 6, so he probably did not. So how do we know? If he said yes Beckham is out but the Giants D is still strong enough to contain Dallas and with Marshall and Ingram etc they have enough receivers to get the ball to...
But no, just "Giants + 4 1/2" so we do not know if the handicapper is taking that into consideration or thinks Beckham is playing.... see?
I am 8-2 this year so far on college, by the way.
Week 1
Penn St (31.5)
Notre Dame (17.0)
Nevada 23.0
Marshall (1.0)
Michigan (3.5)
PENN STATE – 31 ½ over Akron (Franklin is a total dick…will run up score week 1)
NOTRE DAME -17 over Temple (Brian Kelly needs to get out of the gate fast, Temple weaker this year)
Nevada +23 vs Northwestern (Northwestern NEVER covers this big a spread and Nevada scores points).
MARSHALL -1 over Miami (OH) (No knowledge here…but like the home team in the opener and I watched “We are Marshall” on the Sundance channel yesterday)
Michigan – 3 ½ over Florida…drinking the Harbaugh Koolaid and I am sure he is still steaming over the bowl loss to FSU.
Week 2
Buffalo +16 ½ ARMY - I don’t quite buy Army as a powerhouse just yet. Buffalo played tough against Minnesota, who also runs the ball well. Like the points here.
RUTGERS -5 emu - This is a body bag home game for Rutgers, who will play well after falling apart late against Washington. Even though Rutgers is a Big 10 doormat, Rutgers will dominate up front against a very weak EMU team.
K STATE -36 charlotte – This is a Bill Snyder special….and Kansas State always scores over 50 points in these games.
Utsa +17 Baylor – Baylor lost to Liberty…..The Bears are basically a shit show on defense. UTSA is ready to play after having their first game against the Nutt cancelled. I like the points here.
IDAHO -6 ½ unlv – Idaho is home…had a nice 22 point in over CS – Sacramento, a team who is much better than Howard. UNLV lost to Howard last week.
buffalo 16.5
RUTGERS -5
K STATE -36
utsa 17
IDAHO -6.5
Week 1
Penn St (31.5)
Notre Dame (17.0)
Nevada 23.0
Marshall (1.0)
Michigan (3.5)
PENN STATE – 31 ½ over Akron (Franklin is a total dick…will run up score week 1)
NOTRE DAME -17 over Temple (Brian Kelly needs to get out of the gate fast, Temple weaker this year)
Nevada +23 vs Northwestern (Northwestern NEVER covers this big a spread and Nevada scores points).
MARSHALL -1 over Miami (OH) (No knowledge here…but like the home team in the opener and I watched “We are Marshall” on the Sundance channel yesterday)
Michigan – 3 ½ over Florida…drinking the Harbaugh Koolaid and I am sure he is still steaming over the bowl loss to FSU.
Week 2
Buffalo +16 ½ ARMY - I don’t quite buy Army as a powerhouse just yet. Buffalo played tough against Minnesota, who also runs the ball well. Like the points here.
RUTGERS -5 emu - This is a body bag home game for Rutgers, who will play well after falling apart late against Washington. Even though Rutgers is a Big 10 doormat, Rutgers will dominate up front against a very weak EMU team.
K STATE -36 charlotte – This is a Bill Snyder special….and Kansas State always scores over 50 points in these games.
Utsa +17 Baylor – Baylor lost to Liberty…..The Bears are basically a shit show on defense. UTSA is ready to play after having their first game against the Nutt cancelled. I like the points here.
IDAHO -6 ½ unlv – Idaho is home…had a nice 22 point in over CS – Sacramento, a team who is much better than Howard. UNLV lost to Howard last week.
buffalo 16.5
RUTGERS -5
K STATE -36
utsa 17
IDAHO -6.5
I've read many write-ups from both casual posters and paid services... And I've came up with a conclusion.
It's all about results. Once you decided on a play, there are many factors that you can come up with to support your side of view, not that hard to find. Thus Vegas always give you a number that split almost 50/50 in opinion.
It's all about results. Once you decided on a play, there are many factors that you can come up with to support your side of view, not that hard to find. Thus Vegas always give you a number that split almost 50/50 in opinion.
Just my 2 cents:
It is not all about results, just like in poker: You winning a heads-up after shoving all-in with a bad hand vs AA, doesn't mean you made the right decision. Applying that to football: If your team takes the lead in the final minute of a game and then goes on to cover the point spread by scoring another TD on a strip sack and fumble return TD with the clock running out usually doesn't mean that your bet was a really good bet even though it turned out to win.
Yes, that time you got lucky but in the long run you might be better off revisiting your approach/numbers because probably the game played out differently to what you expected.
Having said that: With or without a write-up you will hardly be able to see such "flaws" because even a write-up will only give you a very abbreviated number of things someone took into account when making his pick plus you never know how much he valued certain factors he mentioned. On the other hand if someone puts out a winning record over several seasons and/or a certain sample size, you don't need any write-ups to see if he knows his stuff or doesn't
Elaboration on why write-ups are sometime over-rated, only to make you feel better about your pick... but don't get me wrong, I do enjoy reading them (O'FRED, one of the best on here) but only to FURTHER/REINFORCE and side that I already liked.
Take Clemson v. Louisville for example.. once you like a side you can write all kinds of things about it.
If Clemson - Their D is great, maybe better than last year, and able to shut down LJ in the trenches. Their new QB is gaining experience and been playing good enough to slice the bad Louisville secondary. Their DC Venables has tapes from last year to come up with game plan for LJ...etc.
If Louisville - LJ is world class which will give Clemson D trouble. First home game crowd will be wild. Clemson's QB is so green with first road game in a Revenge game which will be tough...etc
Bottom line, it's all about results winning vs. losing at the end of the day. I'm personally all about making money.
Take Clemson v. Louisville for example.. once you like a side you can write all kinds of things about it.
If Clemson - Their D is great, maybe better than last year, and able to shut down LJ in the trenches. Their new QB is gaining experience and been playing good enough to slice the bad Louisville secondary. Their DC Venables has tapes from last year to come up with game plan for LJ...etc.
If Louisville - LJ is world class which will give Clemson D trouble. First home game crowd will be wild. Clemson's QB is so green with first road game in a Revenge game which will be tough...etc
Bottom line, it's all about results winning vs. losing at the end of the day. I'm personally all about making money.
