Picks and stuff 2023

[truthstorm]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 6-5

Review: Well it wasn't easy but both games were a lot of fun to watch, and in the end I banked both.

I had Coastal over 51'. With just 13 scored by halftime it was not looking good.
A 21 point third quarter put my number in reach and a Chanticleer game winning TD with 23 seconds left in the game gave me a 1/2 point win. Sometimes you die by the hook, sometimes . . .

In my other game I had Char +4.
They were down early, 17-0, but I wasn't as concerned as I was with the Coastal game because I've been seeing Wrong Dogs who I grade at a strong % to win SU pretty clearly. And in the end that's exactly what Char did - won SU in OT.

Unfortunately I ran my numbers for this week and don't have a single Wrong Dog circled on my dance card.
I'll run the numbers again on Friday and hopefully something will fit the parameters I use to qualify as a play.
If not, and you're looking for suggestions on what to play, fade a loser as I've suggested.
I've been giving out advice to help bettors who tail other players instead of making their own plays.
I suggested looking for a loser to fade rather than a winner to follow.
I gave advice on where and how to find the best one.
And last week I gave advice on when to fade:
"The best time to fade a loser is after a rare winning streak.
This is prime time for the natural order of things to be restored as he reverts back to his losing ways.
And especially when you see him chasing, increasing his unit size by two, three, five and even as much as ten times or more his standard bet size."

Anyone who followed that advice did very well, as they faded a 13-15 Saturday that saw a loss of $1,870.00.
And if you bet the chasers I advised to watch for, two of the twenty-eight wagers were for 5*, FIVE times the standard 1* $110/$100 bet.
And, of course, they both lost, meaning fading them with the suggested unit count would have netted you a $1,000.00 profit.
But if you feel you missed out, no worries, the losing continues, including a stellar 0-6, -$1.060.00 last night.
MAKE YOUR OWN NUMBERS AND PICKS!!!
But if you can't - fade a loser.

This week, I have just one play so far. And, it's in the NFL.
I'm a college guy, I much prefer it to pros, both football and hoops. I don't do a lot of number crunching in the NFL, which is why I have no running post in the NFL section with weekly picks. No sense starting one for just one play so I'll post it here.
It's a rare play that pops up only 3-4 times each season, looking for the pendulum to swing back the other way, a trend to reverse, with a W % in the low 60's over the past five years.
It's a play AGAINST the spot the Jags are in. I have SF -3.
Not loving it, recent play Jax is doing well, SF not so much, and I have to lay points with the road team, but I'll ride the long term percentage play I have and look for Jax to stumble while SF gets back on track.

Good luck with your play this week.

 

[JohnnyMags]

Good Luck

 

[truthstorm]

Thanks, Johnny, same to you!

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-5

NFL: 1-0 (Favs 1-0)
College: 6-5 (Favs 0-1, Dogs 2-1, Overs 2-2, Under 2-1)

Review: From post #21
"I'm a college guy. I don't do a lot of number crunching in the NFL, which is why I have no running post in the NFL section. No sense starting one for just one play so I'll post it here. It's a rare play that pops up only 3-4 times each season, looking for the pendulum to swing back the other way, with a W % in the low 60's over the past five years. It's a play AGAINST the spot the Jags are in. I have SF -3."

The Niners jumped out to an early 7 point lead and went wire to wire, covering the spread the entire way.
That play is 1-0 this season, might see 2-3 more before year's end, including one this week - the Vikes are in the same spot as the Jags were.

The line (Den -2, -2' available) looks okay, but I'm not sure if I trust the Broncos.
The good - they've won three in a row, including a quality win against KC, and Buf on the Rd.
The bad - they've lost to Wash, NYJ, and Oak, three mediocre teams, not one of them with a winning record.
And then there's the Miami Massacre where, well, how do ya put this, which sounds worse:
they got beat by 50 points or they gave up 70 points.
Either way, that's some severe suckage right there.

Off recent form they look good though, and you can get 'em at < a FG.
I'm happy to bank the unit I made last week and not press it, like I said, I'm not a big NFL guy.
Then again, the play does have a long term solid W% so maybe I'll add it.
If I do, I'll post it. Just sharing it here for info purposes in case anyone is looking for edges on that game.

I do have a couple of college games circled, including Tulane/Fla Atl Ov 46'.
This game qualifies in a situational play I track that's doing very well this season. Right now I'm tracking/charting four different over/under plays, and when a game qualifies in two of the three it has a 2-1 record. This game qualifies for one of the other plays too, one with a record of 32-28, not great, but showing a slight profit.

At 9-1 Tulane is well-positioned for a New Year's Day game, sitting atop the AAC tied with Memphis (8-2) at 6-0.
With the Roadrunners up next (also 6-0 in the conference) this is not a spot for the Wave to turn into a ripple.
But the O is out of synch lately, averaging just 18 points in their last two games, facing E Car who surrenders an avg of 23 PPG on D and Tulsa who lays down for 34' PPG.
Not the kind of numbers I want to see when I'm looking for an over.
And with Fla Atl off a stellar performance where they scored a grand total of 7 points I'm wondering if the 4-6 Owls have quit on the season and don't give a hoot about their last two games?

Neither team's recent form is giving me much confidence for an over.
On the other hand I do like the numbers for an over on the two situational plays this game fits.
Quandary.
Solution? With a prime bowl spot on the line, not to mention being a much better team, Tulane's not losing this game, right?
And I like the over based on my plays but don't like the two team's recent form.
And I think 46' is a bit too high (did I mention Tulane is 8-2 to the under this year?)
So here's what I played. Last week I used a rare NFL play, this week I'm using an extremely rare teaser so I can get that total down to an easier to hit number: Tulane -2'/Over 39'; -104/100

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-6

NFL: 1-0 (Favs 1-0)
College: 6-6 (Favs 0-1, Dogs 2-1, Overs 2-2, Under 2-1, teasers 0-1)

The Tulane side of the bet was not the part I was concerned about, it was the over that troubled me and the reason for using a teaser.
I was looking for 30 from Tulane and 10 from Florida Atlantic to get me over 39', both fell short, 24-8.

I have one more game, same play as the one that just lost with Tulane. The play has a strong W percentage and because of that I'm betting this other game gets me a W after the earlier L.
Texas/Iowa State over 44'

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-7
NFL: 1-0 (Favs 1-0)
College: 6-7 (Favs 0-1, Dogs 2-1, Overs 2-3, Under 2-1, teasers 0-1)

I had Tex/Iowa St Ov 44'. Texas did okay by me but Iowa St only scored 16 and I came up short by two and a hook.
Overall, down a little juice here at 7-7, no worries, have champ week and bowls to realize a profit.

Today, a pick and some advice.

The pick.
I played this game this morning because the line is going to move against me.
I have a play (post season only) that incorporates the use of seven different categories (Sag SOS and ranking, PF, PA, Rush O, etc.)
It's rare that a team has the better number in all seven but when one does it's 9-5, 64% over the past fifteen years.
I have one this year.
Tex -14

The advice.
You should handicap your own games.
If you tried and didn't do well there are good 'cappers here who will help you with advice on how to get better at it.
But if you're going to tail, tail a cheater.
Because they're easier to find.

There are a lot of ways to spot cheaters on the internet. I've outlined some in this thread, such as:
fake lines on every game (1-2 points better than the common line before kickoff, 3-10 points on fake live lines; yes - 10 points!),
fake juice (such as buying -3 to -2 for 5 cents on an NFL game),
fake records (such as "I'm up 4k on the season!" when the truth is more like 209-221, down more than $10,000.00),
past-posting (giving out a "play" after a team has scored; this is very prevalent on live "picks.")

Here's one more, similar to past-posting.

Example, hypothetical (not). At 9:56 am, four minutes before kickoff:

5* usa +3

Five minutes into the game James Madison scores, USA (South Alabama) is down 0-7.

Next possession, JM scores again, USA now down 0-14.

JM gets a FG, winning 17-0 now,

Then, at 9:46, 45 minutes after kickoff . . . this:

"Cancel usa game no play."

No book allows players to cancel a bet after a game has started.
It's easy to be up on the season with bookeeping like that.
And winning handicappers don't have to lie about the lines they get and cheat on their record.

 

[truthstorm]

"At 9:56 am, four minutes before kickoff"

Correction, was supposed to read "8:56 am, four minutes before kickoff."

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 8-7

Banked the Texas wager to finish with a small profit my first regular season here at the RX.
Now, on to the bowls.

From last week's post:
"I have a play (post season only) that incorporates the use of seven different categories (Sag SOS and ranking, PF, PA, Rush O, etc.)
It's rare that a team has the better number in all seven but when one does it's 9-5, 64% over the past fifteen years.
Tex -14."
I used that bowl play in a championship game for the first time and got a winner. I've completed my bowl work and unfortunately no games qualify for that play this season. Damnit!
I do have two games that qualify in a similar spot - when a team has the better number in 6 of the 7 categories I rate.
UCF and Clemson fit the formula. I have 16 years of data on this play and it's 18-11, 62%.

I do a lot of work on bowls. I have seven plays that I have developed over the years, like the two mentioned above, and 4-5 other spots, such as Wrong Favs, Ov/Un's etc. It takes a lot of time to run each game through all the different scenarios and unfortunately I missed out on better lines on some games, and even worse - missed some key #'s, such as -7 now -9 for example.

Another formula I use is when I have a SOS differential of X or higher and the better # on one other category, the highest rated category (I keep track of the W-L record for each of the seven categories.) Thirteen years of tracking this one and a record of 11-5, 68%.
This year it has Iowa St, Oregon.

Only play I'm using right now is Clemson -7, will post other recommended plays right after/if I buy them.

In closing, one more "hypothetical" example in the on-going series (because his cheating is ongoing, on an almost daily basis) of how to spot a cheater to fade. (The example in my previous post, when he "cancelled" a "bet" after his team was down 17-0 is just one of many.)

"Hypothetical" - watch for someone who says on a Saturday morning, "I'll update my record later, can't right now, I'm on the road."
This is an old trick. Translation: "I'm gonna hide my losses for the week and hope no one notices when I do my next update and don't count them."

How do you know it's a lie?

Well, maybe, in this "hypothetical" example, he didn't update his total after losing on Thursday or Friday either (I guess he was "on the road" then too. And even when he did update his annual total on Monday and Tuesday he shaved losses off it from those days.)

"Maybe" although he "couldn't" update his record Saturday (because he was "on the road") he DID manage to find time to:
throw darts at 35 picks,
and check the lines on those games so he can shave his usual 1-2 points off the real number (or 7-10 points if it's one his fake "live' lines.)
and post his 35 air bets,
and post more than 50 times throughout the day, from 5 am to 7 pm, in his threads and others.

In these "hypothetical" situations you may find that the real reason someone didn't want to update his record Saturday morning is because he was 1-12 during the week.

"Maybe" he didn't do an update for the same reason he didn't do a daily or weekly update for FOUR weeks at the beginning of the season, when he lost so badly that not once, not twice, but THREE times he said he was quitting.
Then after a few lucky wins the next week, after missing for FOUR weeks, his season total magically appears one day.
And get this - he's up on the season!
The four weeks of losing just disappeared. Amazing!

I don't like frauds who try to deceive forum members.

 

[truthstorm]

I'm usually pretty good at anticipating line moves but I messed up on Clemson.
They opened -7, I thought it would go up, moved against me, -5 now.
I have a few different ways I use to identify "Wronged Favs", teams that opened as dogs but my numbers say should have been the favorite.
Utah St is one of them. They opened +2' and are at pk to -1 now.
I missed the best number but I made them -3 so I grabbed them this morning before they go any higher.
I have Clemson -7 and Utah St pk in my pocket. More to follow.

 

[indiana]

T. Storm....BOL with your action this Bowl Season buddy....indy