a lot of these types of threads dont go very far as each person has their own ideas, but that is the point imo, to look at different ideas and incorporate what works for you personally.
one thing that I need to point out is that my bottom line is money and win percentage makes zero difference to me. what that means is that I take anything I feel has a 54% chance of winning. also a lot of times I can hit just two out of 5 and make money if the dogs win su, and with baseball, winning percentage is really meaningless and that is a very larger number of annual bets.
and you also cant count on 58%. some years you will hit that, others you wont, most years you wont, and the more wagers you place the less likely you stay above 58% in EVERYTHING. trying to hit that percentage is more for single sport specialists, it's more difficult to hit that in all three major sports, college and pro.
to bet on a lot of games means you have to look at a lot of games, and that requires a lot of time and work. last year in the NBA I spent probably an average of over 70 hours each week. this year I spent a lot of time looking at the less public college basketball teams. for me, the nba is a lot harder to beat right now than college so I spent more time there recently, you have to switch gears and adapt constantly. if you cant look at 75-80% of all games each day, and then come to a conclusion on maybe 25-30% of them, grade the plays afterwards, and then track that for entire seasons and make adjustments, then it really wouldnt make sense to change something that already works for you.
the hardest thing to deal with, and one of the reasons that a lot of people dont like to bet 10 or more games a day, is the short term losing streak. you will have 2 wins and 10 losses in a day eventually, and you have to rebound quickly, if you pass the next day you usually pass on winners. at times you feel like you wont ever win another game, and then 2 days later you are on another big win streak. once you learn to deal with that, it's just a matter of circling games and shopping. if bad days dont hurt you and just piss you off, then you are right at the amount you should be betting on each. then it's just a matter of time, one way or the other.
one thing that I need to point out is that my bottom line is money and win percentage makes zero difference to me. what that means is that I take anything I feel has a 54% chance of winning. also a lot of times I can hit just two out of 5 and make money if the dogs win su, and with baseball, winning percentage is really meaningless and that is a very larger number of annual bets.
and you also cant count on 58%. some years you will hit that, others you wont, most years you wont, and the more wagers you place the less likely you stay above 58% in EVERYTHING. trying to hit that percentage is more for single sport specialists, it's more difficult to hit that in all three major sports, college and pro.
to bet on a lot of games means you have to look at a lot of games, and that requires a lot of time and work. last year in the NBA I spent probably an average of over 70 hours each week. this year I spent a lot of time looking at the less public college basketball teams. for me, the nba is a lot harder to beat right now than college so I spent more time there recently, you have to switch gears and adapt constantly. if you cant look at 75-80% of all games each day, and then come to a conclusion on maybe 25-30% of them, grade the plays afterwards, and then track that for entire seasons and make adjustments, then it really wouldnt make sense to change something that already works for you.
the hardest thing to deal with, and one of the reasons that a lot of people dont like to bet 10 or more games a day, is the short term losing streak. you will have 2 wins and 10 losses in a day eventually, and you have to rebound quickly, if you pass the next day you usually pass on winners. at times you feel like you wont ever win another game, and then 2 days later you are on another big win streak. once you learn to deal with that, it's just a matter of circling games and shopping. if bad days dont hurt you and just piss you off, then you are right at the amount you should be betting on each. then it's just a matter of time, one way or the other.
There are obviously different approaches to making $ on a consistent basis, and while i agree that playing a large # of games EVERY day is not the way to go, you can vary your approach and look at at the board each day on a selective basis, and determine how comfortable you are with it, and select the amount of games accordingly, while also taking into account recent win loss percentage.
great thread.
for only example purposes i will choose someone else from the forum, maybe two others for the next week comparing them to myself since i do play every game.
i'll try to find someone who plays just one or two a night, and someone who plays 4 or 5 with diff values.
this might work out to be a good example.
we shall see.
for only example purposes i will choose someone else from the forum, maybe two others for the next week comparing them to myself since i do play every game.
i'll try to find someone who plays just one or two a night, and someone who plays 4 or 5 with diff values.
this might work out to be a good example.
we shall see.
This is true if your are winning 52% or less of your games.
The cold hard fact is that if you win 53% or more of the games you wager on, then the more games you play, the more money you win.
The point trying to be made is that you will hit a higher percentage of winners if you play fewer games. This may be true for some people but not all handicappers. Bottom line, if you can hit over 53%, you are making money.
The cold hard fact is that if you win 53% or more of the games you wager on, then the more games you play, the more money you win.
The point trying to be made is that you will hit a higher percentage of winners if you play fewer games. This may be true for some people but not all handicappers. Bottom line, if you can hit over 53%, you are making money.
