I think a key player being out in NBA has a significant impact on the outcome of a game. Yes they are all professional caliber but there are only 5 players on the court so that key player makes up 20% of their offense and defense production at any point (considering they play almost the entire game). With baseball one player only contributes to about 4-5 at bats the entire game. Anyone can field the ball and only the pitcher pitches it. Just my opinion.
Disagree.
The line often gets over adjusted. Also, the players filling in want to make the most of their extended minutes and often play very well. I specifically remember a game 3-4 years where SA visited the Dubs, sat several starters. The line flipped at least 7 points from fav to dog. SA won the game any way. The non-starters are professionals, more than capable of performing. Yes, at the very top of the food chain superstars matter in the NBA. Lebron and a few others.
NBA teams don't have 5 good players and a bunch of scrubs on the bench. The bench players can play.
I've wagered and watched the NBA for years, players step in and play well often. And many times those teams cover the over adjusted spread.
The NBA thing depends on the player. LeBron yes, D Rose no. Just 2 I can see think of real quick. I can recall many times Rose being out would move lines. Partly because the public would jump on the other side but the Bulls would actually do better without Rose in. Everyone knows the Cavs aren't the same team without LBJ, so I think it depends which player is out.
I have to agree with Biz.. I NBA for over 15 years and my friends and I are always looking to bet against the favorite teams on a second game of a back to back or bet on the team without it star player... Every time one bench player stepped in and shows off, and due to the line movement is the team doesn't win the game they cover the spread in a very high percentage of the time. This two situations are my money makers in NBA during the years...
