PEDRO MARTINEZ IS A SCRATCH

[wilheim]

I think everyone understands that. The problem is unless you know what books except this type of bet and have time to open an account, or already have an account in one. The information is useless. I am very happy for anyone who gets a break on the substitution, but as Doc pointed out it works both ways. It is a bad beat if you played Martinez in an action only book, and have to lay -220 or so on Fossum.IMHO.


wil.

 

[vegasguy39]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
It is a bad beat if you played Martinez in an action only book, and have to lay -220 or so on Fossum.


<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Wil

Very well stated. There are quite a few chalk artists out there, and we all know who they are.

 

[sickgambler]

I don't understand why you boys are thanking BTJ for this info. Don't you guys realize that this info means squat. Unless you are betting with Intertops at 75 max a game or something, which i doubt not more than 1% is here, then why the thank you's for?

This info will mean nothing, as everyone will get the adjusted line anyways. So whether he pitched or not, this info meant nothing to anyone here. Now had he said.. BOYS, SHAQ IS OUT TONIGHT, OR FAVRE IS OUT.. OR A STAR GOALIE IN NHL IS OUT.. then that is totally different. But a pitcher, who cares? We'll all end up with the same price anyways.. But if Shaq or Kobe is out and we beat that book, then you just did a great job..

 

[docdekay]

Sick, 2750 max risk at intertops is a far cry from 75. Good luck tonite.

 

[sickgambler]

Hey, I think I am going to sign up at Intertops. Wait a second, that was one of the few casinos that booted me out. But wait a sec, I forgot, ... I've got 5 names I can use.. wahooooooooooooooooooooooooo.. I think I will sign up tonight with them under my name #4..


Relax boys...I am just kidding.

 

[docdekay]

LOLOL
This was your first stab at humor since the incident. You have been very wound up here the past couple of months. You have finally lightened up. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

I cringe every time I see someone mention Intertops does this, at least they don't know the other 3 shops who do this.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Steve_Australia:
You guys who don't listen are amazing.
As doc was stressing, there are a few books out there who let you bet action with no listed pitchers.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


If you think about it it isn't hard to figure out what situations it is beneficial to take advantage of this. If the game is:


Ariz -360 (RJohnson)
Colorado +300 (Jennings)


There is no advantage to taking action with no listed pitchers if you want Arizona. If Johnson doesn't start than you are in trouble. However if you like the Rockies than that is a different story, obviously. Easy concept men, Doc said more than I would have already and I work here.

 

[sickgambler]

I just figured out that by betting every big dog of +200 or more for the whole year at action, you would end up losing.. Here is the breakdown..

Lets say that out of the 2,430 MLB games each year, there will be 150 games that will have a +200 dog or better, correct? And i estimated that approx 1 in 25 games, the pitcher will be a late scratch. So that means you will end up with about 6 bets of a +200, where the line will end up approx +150 lets say. So only 6 games a year you will get 50 cents or better advantage, and 144 games you will end up with the right price..

144 times the house will have a hold of 2.5% (10 cent line)

6 times you will have a hold advantage of about 23% (approx)

_________

If each of your 150 bets were for 100, you would lose 360 dollars.. (144 x 100 x .025)

And your 6 bets would be at a +23% advantage.

100 x 6 x .023, for a profit of only 13 small bucks..

________

So Patty, yes it sounds like a good idea at first, but if you do play every dog at action at the current price, you will win 13 bucks and lose 360, for a negative result of -347, over a full season at a bet of 100 a game, over a full season..

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Sick - appreciate the post but I do not use these books as a "system play" across the board. I use Intertops and a couple more books who do this when I am on a play anyway, a play where it is to my advantage to play it here. Understand? I do not blindly play every play there for this reason thinking it will pay off, I must be on the play for other reasons before I bet it. It is foolish to ignore how it can work in your favor.

I have cashed a couple of nice one's this year and last year doing this, believe me it has more than shown a profit for me. Plays I would be betting anyway and prices right there where I would be betting them somewhere else. I can do the exact math and show you what it saved me specifically if so inclined. Nothing to lose and everything to gain, my kind of odds.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Sick - I don't want to post much here about it, not that it's huge but just another trick to help out squares like me over the long course of the year. I'd rather send stuff to you than post it here because I could be wrong anyway. For one thing these plays are best used against #1 pitchers and strong #2's. If the Tigers are big dogs who cares if the pitching changes against them or not, won't make much difference anyway. But if you have decent teams just going against a Pedro, Big Unit, Schilling etc.... they would boost the odds way up. If something happens then that would be a nice game to be locked in at +240 since the only mismatch is on the mound. Games where a pitching change will really make a difference in the quality of the teams. Some teams suck anyway and there is no advantage in this.

Use your imagination Sick and you will think of other things. Good luck.

 

[max1234]

I was watching tv last nite and the DeNiro movie "The Bronx Tale" was on. After checking the score and seeing Boston blew out Oakland 14-5 it just dawned on me who BTJ really is: MOOCH! The old man in the movie that never wins! And if he is the same side as you're on just tear up the tickets, it's a loser, no matter how good the info is.

 

[5teamparlay]

WHY DO YOU GUYS HAVE THE SAME COVERSATION ABOUT ACTION/NO ACTION etc. every time this happens. KNOW YOUR BOOKS RULES. BUT WE SHOULD ALL KNOW V E G A S rules as to listed pitchers. All totals and RL void no matter what, Action all lines are are adjusted, Listed bets are cancelled. AS per this site Standard Vegas rules should apply to posters picks, and all picks are time stamped, as they do at most all local books accross the country. I hope this is the last time you guys have this conversation.

 

[vegasguy39]

Parlay

This will happen again next time PEDRO is scratched.

I always go by the Las Vegas books rules. I was amazed when I read the betting rules at Intertops.