Fezzik, interesting reply. I happen to completely agree as I would pay a fair amount of money to someone who could hit 55% percent year after year, god only knows what I would pay for 60% winners year after year. If people do not understand this, they are either deluding themselves (want's post says it quite well) or they have not done sports investing long enough to know how hard it is to crank out 55% year after year (let alone 60%, which, save for a random gambling savant or two, is not attainable over a statistically relevant sample of time - i am talking years).
As for the mention of "MIller" beer, I am assuming you are speaking of JR Miller. I personally tracked every single play from Mr Miller via his website (which I will not list here for obvious reasons) for one full calendar year, from 6/17/03 - 6/17/04. Below are the results, and they are not pretty. I have no reason to lie or slam JR, I am sure he would attest to these results if he was asked. He does at least post every single play 5 mins after the game starts:
MLB - total picks 921, 419 W, 489 L, 13 ties, 46.15%, and a loss of 20.65 units
NFL - total picks 231, 113 W, 113 L, 5 ties, 50%, and a loss of 4.86 units
NBA - total picks 493, 228 W, 257 L, 8 ties, 47.01% and a loss of 38.18 units
NHL - total picks 356, 149 W, 169 L, 38 ties, 46.86% and a loss of 1.14 units
Arena - total picks 1, 1 W, 0 L, 0 ties, 100%, and a gain of .96 units
College - total picks 4, 2 W, 2 L, 0 ties, 50%, and a loss of .14 units
Totals - total picks 2006, 912 W, 1030 L, 64 ties, and a loss of 64.01 total units.
Thats a whopping 64% of your bankroll gone in one year.
If you had certain proof of someone who could hit 60% over a span of 10 years consistently, I would be right behind Fezzik in the line of people with their checkbooks open willing to pay almost whatever was necessary to get access to that information.
As for the mention of "MIller" beer, I am assuming you are speaking of JR Miller. I personally tracked every single play from Mr Miller via his website (which I will not list here for obvious reasons) for one full calendar year, from 6/17/03 - 6/17/04. Below are the results, and they are not pretty. I have no reason to lie or slam JR, I am sure he would attest to these results if he was asked. He does at least post every single play 5 mins after the game starts:
MLB - total picks 921, 419 W, 489 L, 13 ties, 46.15%, and a loss of 20.65 units
NFL - total picks 231, 113 W, 113 L, 5 ties, 50%, and a loss of 4.86 units
NBA - total picks 493, 228 W, 257 L, 8 ties, 47.01% and a loss of 38.18 units
NHL - total picks 356, 149 W, 169 L, 38 ties, 46.86% and a loss of 1.14 units
Arena - total picks 1, 1 W, 0 L, 0 ties, 100%, and a gain of .96 units
College - total picks 4, 2 W, 2 L, 0 ties, 50%, and a loss of .14 units
Totals - total picks 2006, 912 W, 1030 L, 64 ties, and a loss of 64.01 total units.
Thats a whopping 64% of your bankroll gone in one year.
If you had certain proof of someone who could hit 60% over a span of 10 years consistently, I would be right behind Fezzik in the line of people with their checkbooks open willing to pay almost whatever was necessary to get access to that information.
I wonder what the correlation coefficient is between those answering "yes" to the question "would you pay for picks" and those answering "yes" to "would you pay for porn"!? I imagine it would be very high. :movingeye
It's hard to say whether it's objectively right or wrong since in the end you're buying a feeling more than anything and that's hard to put a $$ value on. One thing's for sure, though: bookies are not the least bit concerned about losing to guys following touts.
It's hard to say whether it's objectively right or wrong since in the end you're buying a feeling more than anything and that's hard to put a $$ value on. One thing's for sure, though: bookies are not the least bit concerned about losing to guys following touts.
Show me 60% winners, I'll show you my cash. Show me 55% winners, I'll still show you my cash. There are many ways to skin the cat, the more ways you can do it the better chance of long term success you have. I'll always be open minded to different ways of winning. Why anyone would say they wouldn't be interested in a long term winning handi-cappers info is curious to me. I'm not to proud to say, I will use others advice and information if I can do it profitably. Scalping, middling, bonuses etc. and opinions are part of the puzzle. Many have helped me learn to put that together for free, some of it I've paid for. I hope to always be open minded and logical enough in my thinking to take advantage of profitable opportunities, regarldless of how they are shared.
I've got to admit I've paid for services and picks about 10-20 times and gotten buried everytime.Like I stated the reason before,i just don't have the time cap and I'm a small player anyway 50-500.
I don't think good services 55% or better exist...I think you are better off devolping your own system or get out of the game altogether.
I don't buy into all that capping bullshit too much anyway the people who make the lines have the most info on who is going to win anyway,what they throw out there for a line is just window dressing anyway.And they have about a dozen games a week where it is just short of a fix that they kill the public on.The extent of my capping is looking for clues on which those games are.
People get so caught up in line movement its laughable,the lines makers can move it anyway they want for any reason they want,those that believe the money moves the line so the books can even the action live in wonderland.The books just like you don't want half, they want it all.Its a sophisticated street shell game or 3 card monte....tough game thats why there is only 1 out of every 10 posters on this board can say they are winners.
I don't think good services 55% or better exist...I think you are better off devolping your own system or get out of the game altogether.
I don't buy into all that capping bullshit too much anyway the people who make the lines have the most info on who is going to win anyway,what they throw out there for a line is just window dressing anyway.And they have about a dozen games a week where it is just short of a fix that they kill the public on.The extent of my capping is looking for clues on which those games are.
People get so caught up in line movement its laughable,the lines makers can move it anyway they want for any reason they want,those that believe the money moves the line so the books can even the action live in wonderland.The books just like you don't want half, they want it all.Its a sophisticated street shell game or 3 card monte....tough game thats why there is only 1 out of every 10 posters on this board can say they are winners.
I said it before and I will say it again. When guys do buy picks they really are not looking for picks, they are more thanlikely looking to have the guy pick a team that they like personally. Most guys won't play a team that they dont lilke even if they do pay for it.
that is where the whole win percentage and theory of relativety come in. If a guy gives you 485 wuinners, but you only bet the teams that win, then it doesn't matter that his overall record is only 48%. But if he is hitting 55% and you are betting the losing sides then the same holds true. It is all a matter of perspective.
I have seen numbers thrown around and none of them are even close to being reasonable to actually make serious money. I saw 150 plays at 60%. That is a record of 90-60. At -107 ( I doubt it would hold that average if baseball was introduced into the equation) but for arguments sake. That is roughly a profit of 24 units. SO even if you were betting a grand a game on someone else's plays then that would still only be $24,000 profit for the year. Less the fees for paying the guy. Some people said they would pay "anything for 60%" Well if they aren't betting 5 or 10 dimes a game then "anything" better not be too much. Even at 10 dimes a game it is only a profit of roughly 240K. But if a guy can afford to bet 10K per game I am not sure what 240K is to him.
It isn't about percentages and all that. Well it is sorta, but it is more about volume and success versus failure than anything else. I could put up 100% "winners" on here day in and day out. I am sure a lot of guys could as well. But most won't stick weith it or think the returns are too smallt o bother with.
If you make 50-150 a day 360 days a year and NEVER have a losing bet, there isn't a person alive than canpick enough winners betting one way to show the kind of profit you can over a 8 or 10 year period.
If there were no limits at books I would be a millionaire within a couple months, that is starting out with tha bankroll I have now. Again, that isn't rocket science. It is math and timing, plain and simple.
But you are limited to what you can do and when. That is the only thing that keeps books ahead of guys like me and others who play the advantage game.
It isn't glamerous, it isn't anyway to brag about how good you are at picking games, it surely isn't an ego stroke seminar. But it is getting paid daily, and to me that is what it is all about.
I have never gone broke, I have never been low on funds, I have never been worried about needing a team to win so I can stay in the game. All things that anyone, that bets one way has gone through, from the legendary guys all the way down to the stiffs that don't have 2 bux to rub together. It is the nature of the beast. A rollercoaster ride, that as I said in the previous post I made in this thread, is one where most guys forget how many times they puked on themselves during it. They like to pretend the undid their seatbelts and stood up all the way. Or at least that is what they tell people.
The next 7-8 months are the prime time for guys to make money. BAseball is so easy to make money at it is almost embarrassing. But guys are usually broke after football and the NCAA tounry that they are starting off at a huge disadvatage, and lose some great oppurtunities early to build their roll to reinverst and make some serious money in the summer.
I want more people betting bases, that way the lines move a lot more and open up bigger gaps for me t takes shots at. I have noticed the past couple years the moves have been getting more and mmore frequent and larger and larger. So that does tell me more guys are betting bases.
So All I can say is keep it up boys. I and the other guys that grind it out appreciate the line moves. And it does not go unnoticed nor unappreciated.
that is where the whole win percentage and theory of relativety come in. If a guy gives you 485 wuinners, but you only bet the teams that win, then it doesn't matter that his overall record is only 48%. But if he is hitting 55% and you are betting the losing sides then the same holds true. It is all a matter of perspective.
I have seen numbers thrown around and none of them are even close to being reasonable to actually make serious money. I saw 150 plays at 60%. That is a record of 90-60. At -107 ( I doubt it would hold that average if baseball was introduced into the equation) but for arguments sake. That is roughly a profit of 24 units. SO even if you were betting a grand a game on someone else's plays then that would still only be $24,000 profit for the year. Less the fees for paying the guy. Some people said they would pay "anything for 60%" Well if they aren't betting 5 or 10 dimes a game then "anything" better not be too much. Even at 10 dimes a game it is only a profit of roughly 240K. But if a guy can afford to bet 10K per game I am not sure what 240K is to him.
It isn't about percentages and all that. Well it is sorta, but it is more about volume and success versus failure than anything else. I could put up 100% "winners" on here day in and day out. I am sure a lot of guys could as well. But most won't stick weith it or think the returns are too smallt o bother with.
If you make 50-150 a day 360 days a year and NEVER have a losing bet, there isn't a person alive than canpick enough winners betting one way to show the kind of profit you can over a 8 or 10 year period.
If there were no limits at books I would be a millionaire within a couple months, that is starting out with tha bankroll I have now. Again, that isn't rocket science. It is math and timing, plain and simple.
But you are limited to what you can do and when. That is the only thing that keeps books ahead of guys like me and others who play the advantage game.
It isn't glamerous, it isn't anyway to brag about how good you are at picking games, it surely isn't an ego stroke seminar. But it is getting paid daily, and to me that is what it is all about.
I have never gone broke, I have never been low on funds, I have never been worried about needing a team to win so I can stay in the game. All things that anyone, that bets one way has gone through, from the legendary guys all the way down to the stiffs that don't have 2 bux to rub together. It is the nature of the beast. A rollercoaster ride, that as I said in the previous post I made in this thread, is one where most guys forget how many times they puked on themselves during it. They like to pretend the undid their seatbelts and stood up all the way. Or at least that is what they tell people.
The next 7-8 months are the prime time for guys to make money. BAseball is so easy to make money at it is almost embarrassing. But guys are usually broke after football and the NCAA tounry that they are starting off at a huge disadvatage, and lose some great oppurtunities early to build their roll to reinverst and make some serious money in the summer.
I want more people betting bases, that way the lines move a lot more and open up bigger gaps for me t takes shots at. I have noticed the past couple years the moves have been getting more and mmore frequent and larger and larger. So that does tell me more guys are betting bases.
So All I can say is keep it up boys. I and the other guys that grind it out appreciate the line moves. And it does not go unnoticed nor unappreciated.
I think the reason why the syndicate wins and other great hadicappers win, simply because they know which way the line is going to go, another words if the public bets the favorite on a game and they like the dog they just sit and and wait till it stops moving and than they pound it. great hadicappers are pure stealing. how can they lose when they lay -6 on a game and the line should be -10, or they bet +6 on a game and the line should be 3. noway they can lose, WHENEVER you beat the line you beat the game. you can figure all your percentages out you want, the bottom line is you cant beat these guys, they have too big of a edge. how can you beat somebody that lays you -6 and the game closes 8, or if they bet +6 and the game closes 4, its noway you can beat these guys, you can take all the percentages and put them on the shelf, I dont know what there winning percentages are, thats all I know is they win every YEAR. dont matter what percentage this or that or whatever, they know how to win.
:finger:
:finger:
casinghand said:
whats unbelievable is the number of responses that have nothing to do with the basic question.
whats unbelievable is the response of never pay for picks , no matter what.
the hypothetical was something that is very possible . someone averaging 90-60 on nba totals picks.. doing it for a few years and doing it before everyone's eyes right here to be tracked..
the answer is hell ya i would pay $ 49.00 a month for service like that..
thats my opinion anyway...
p.s. i havent seen anybody here do it yet.. maybe the new picks tracker will identify someone..
