PATS D Should Get Torched

[PeePee]

Each team presents compelling case to back them. We can't use the common team A beat team B beat team C... It will be chasing our tails. The notion most of Pats' opponents are garbage is simply comical if you dig up who those teams had beaten. Like you said... Mia was 10-4 and I'm sure they beat good teams.

Bottom line, to make to SB you just can't be a fluke. Just have to side with who gives you more winning chance... Consistently

 

[bigwang]

All you guys who keep harping on ne sos are fucking stupid. They beat who was on their schedule. They have no say in who they play. If you really want to keep banging on their sos, well, they are 15-3 ats while being a fav in every game except wk 1 win vs az. This means they not only win but win comfortably.

Their d is pretty good and the qb ratings of opponents should be high considering the pats are usually ahead by multiple scores late in games and allowing opponents to complete time consuming short routes that kill clock and don't produce big plays.

Atl will get points but not enough to win. I'd be more concerned about atl's poor defense trying to stop Brady and co.

 

[bigwang]

Against common opponents Atlanta was 5-1. NE 4-1.

Atlanta massacred GB & Seattle recently. GB easily routed Seattle. Seattle won in NE vs Brady
on national television.

Therefore Atlanta is more than capable of defeating NE by 5 TDs.

You need to get get off the crack pipe if you think atl can beat ne by 5 tds.

 

[TheFalls]

Their d is pretty good and the qb ratings of opponents should be high considering the pats are usually ahead by multiple scores late in games and allowing opponents to complete time consuming short routes that kill clock and don't produce big plays.

Confused here...because they should be high. But they were only slightly higher...but still low because they cumulatively sucked.
That's the idea behind the original post...matty ice should slice.

 

[bigwang]

Confused here...because they should be high. But they were only slightly higher...but still low because they cumulatively sucked.
That's the idea behind the original post...matty ice should slice.

Qb ratings can be misleading when they put up garbage time stats.

Pats pass d will key on preventing long plays. Coleman split out wide is the x-factor for atl.

 

[X-Files]

You need to get get off the crack pipe if you think atl can beat ne by 5 tds.

It wouldn't be the first time a 3 point dog won by that much.

In fact Pinnacle has been leaning to Atlanta since the line came out.

Their FBL leans, especially in the NFL, are something to pay attention to.

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

there's a bookie here in Aus leting people back NE ml at even money....these guys have an amazing record of favourites losing when they offer these promo prices on hot favs

 

[Mosi]

And, how good is the Atlanta D? Not that good. I am not saying the Pats win, but both teams will get their points.

 

[Willie99]

so the Pats are getting torched by Atlanta because the Pats supposedly haven't played anybody good, but one of the league's worst defenses that has actually been getting torched all year is all of a sudden going to stop the explosive Patriots offense and Tom Brady?

are not the Falcons getting torched?

you just can't make this shit up, and it's all the same shit people were talking about before the Pittsburgh game two short weeks ago

think about this, these people are actually saying the Pittsburgh offense sucks now, because the Pats haven't played anybody good on offense. Seriously?



the Falcons may win, but I'd look for a different angle

the Patriots are going to win because their defense actually makes more stops than the Falcons defense does

 

[Willie99]

Falcons are healthy on defense and they play great team defense.
This could very well be one of those 45-10 games. That would make Goodell delirious with joy.
NE lost when they were kept under 24 or less points. In NE, 0-16 to Buffalo.
Atlanta will get their points easy.
This is just like when they played Manning and his high powered colt offenses that defeated NE.

:missingte

did you actually cite the Buffalo game from the third week of the season? The one the Patriots started a 3rd string rookie QB with a broken throwing hand? and he played with a cast on his throwing hand thumb?

thanks for bringing a smile to my face, I love it my friend

 

[X-Files]

did you actually cite the Buffalo game from the third week of the season? The one the Patriots started a 3rd string rookie QB with a broken throwing hand? and he played with a cast on his throwing hand thumb?

thanks for bringing a smile to my face, I love it my friend

It was part of a response making fun of the post i was replying to, not meant as a serious argument. I thought that was obvious.

 

[X-Files]

the Patriots are going to win because their defense actually makes more stops than the Falcons defense does

It's easy to make stops when you're playing the pathetic Jets & Houston (twice each) instead of the Saints & GB. Reverse that & we'll talk again about making stops.

Between their 5 common opponents Atlanta was just as good as NE, as i've already detailed earlier in this thread.

 

[ca$hmoney]

Here's a question for everyone...what unit has the bigger advantage?

Atlanta offense vs New England Defense

New England offense vs Atlanta Defense

Atlanta should be able to score into the 20s but the 30s may be tough and frankly rather impressive given Belichek has 2 weeks to prepare.

On the other hand, I would expect New England to score in the 30s. Anything less would be rather impressive on Atlanta's side for slowing down Brady and company enough to keep the game within reach.

From my opinion, Atlanta has to come out and bring their A game on both sides to have a shot.

But if there is one angle that appears to be the biggest mismatch, it's Brady and company vs Atlantas defense. I just don't see how they can keep them under 31.

 

[PatsFan1283]

It was part of a response making fun of the post i was replying to, not meant as a serious argument. I thought that was obvious.

Here's the thing...Your pro-Falcons points are so bad that we can't tell when you are kidding or not.

And if posts like #10 and #17 are trolling, why troll? People don't wanna read that.

 

[X-Files]

Here's the thing...Your pro-Falcons points are so bad that we can't tell when you are kidding or not.

And if posts like #10 and #17 are trolling, why troll? People don't wanna read that.

I'd like to hear what's bad about my pro Falcons points.

Has even one of them even been seriously challenged yet?

What points did you think (or assume) i was making?

BTW Pinnacle is still leaning to the Falcons. Betting against their NFL leans is a long term road to bankruptcy.
Following them is a money maker when your square book is weighted on the opposite side.

 

[ofred]

The best indicator of where this game ends up is the actual line, -3. Sharp money and the oddsmakers have analyzed this game to death, and where the betting will come from, and it hasn't hardly budged in 2 weeks. Anyone laying big money on the idea that Atlanta will crush NE is working off their own biases. I can make the case that a turnover edge of +1 or +2 for either team will cover this.

 

[bradyisgod]

The best indicator of where this game ends up is the actual line, -3. Sharp money and the oddsmakers have analyzed this game to death, and where the betting will come from, and it hasn't hardly budged in 2 weeks. Anyone laying big money on the idea that Atlanta will crush NE is working off their own biases. I can make the case that a turnover edge of +1 or +2 for either team will cover this

Yep. Don't forget to add what usually happens. The guys saying the Falcons will torch the Patriots will disappear by the wayside when the Patriots win and cover. Same story with the guys on the Steelers who made the same arguments about pats SOS. They disappeared. If the Falcons pull the upset they will be back in here to let everyone know they are the next coming of god when it's really just a guess for them. Dunning Kruger effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect . And since betting sports is such high variance they go on a heater which starts leading them to believe they are better than they really are. Who knows, maybe someone will be in here after the game telling us all that they hit 65% a clip over 40 games so we should have bet on the Falcons. I highly doubt they are more skilled than the oddsmakers creating the lines for a living. But people like to dream. I've seen this story play out over and over on the RX. You know, where guys claim something outrageous like Dallas going to the superbowl and when it doesn't happen they just get outright banned or disappear on their own when everyone tells them what a loser they are. I'm on the Patriots here more so as a fun wager. The real money is probably in the props. I'm sure with every analyst and their mother spending every waking hour over the past two weeks figuring this game out they have it pretty much nailed. They definitely have more time (and money) to invest into this game than I do. But after the game it won't change the fact that you'll have guys in here on one side or the other being results oriented about one game. Won't be me. I think it will be a great game.

 

[bigwang]

there's a bookie here in Aus leting people back NE ml at even money....these guys have an amazing record of favourites losing when they offer these promo prices on hot favs

What is their betting limit on ne ml ev?

 

[PatsFan1283]

I'd like to hear what's bad about my pro Falcons points.

Has even one of them even been seriously challenged yet?

What points did you think (or assume) i was making?

BTW Pinnacle is still leaning to the Falcons. Betting against their NFL leans is a long term road to bankruptcy.
Following them is a money maker when your square book is weighted on the opposite side.

I've replied to a few of your threads. I dunno which ones are the serious ones and which aren't.

And Pinnacle shading 1 way doesn't mean anything more than they are adjusting the line by a few %. It doesn't mean they have some inclination that the Falcons are the "right side". There is no lean to the Falcons, it's just a lean towards them being the better side at a 3 point spread. If the line was -2.5 but NE -120 would that be a lean to the Patriots? You're using the term incorrectly.

I suppose that is valuable info if you have square books and just want to bet rogue #'s, but not many books that don't just move on "air" these days.

 

[X-Files]

Here's a question for everyone...what unit has the bigger advantage?

Atlanta offense vs New England Defense

New England offense vs Atlanta Defense

Atlanta should be able to score into the 20s but the 30s may be tough and frankly rather impressive given Belichek has 2 weeks to prepare.

On the other hand, I would expect New England to score in the 30s. Anything less would be rather impressive on Atlanta's side for slowing down Brady and company enough to keep the game within reach.

From my opinion, Atlanta has to come out and bring their A game on both sides to have a shot.

But if there is one angle that appears to be the biggest mismatch, it's Brady and company vs Atlantas defense. I just don't see how they can keep them under 31.

To answer your question:

According to the Pinnacle line the advantage is to the Patriots and it's a mere 2.5 to 3 points.

According to some square books it is 3 to 3.5 points. Maybe 4 or 4.5 with some NE locals.