I might also mention (just as a means of helping you out), regardless of what I feel about your logic, that 5dimes has propositions bets where you can pretty much choose the number on how much of a victory you expect (without being limited). So you could bet that you think it will be over 20 1/2 and get +590 or over 23 1/2 at +1040. Your choice on the numbers. Hope this helps.