Parlay Bets

[Two-Niner]

Here's another cool tool from Granchow at SBR. Round Robin calculator.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Round+Robin+Calculator.aspx

It really shows you how much your fortunes can change with one win or loss, or corresponding change in win percentage. These round robins are good for large coorelated situations. Examples would be interleague play in MLB (which used to be priced worse), also when there are rule changes in a league which you think will effect scoring. Arena had a rule change that didn't pan out in recent years, but it was a good round robin opportunity, because if things broke right you had a chance for a large amount of unders and a very high return. You could maybe even make a case for fading a particular conference in bowl games as the results seem to be coorelated, and the lines start moving a bit in accordance with how their fellow conference teams are doing.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Let's examine the parlay in real terms. Whenever you waer on a game, there is a 50% chance of winning that game. Please,do not bothher telling me how good you are, etc... The math says 50%. There are four possible outcomes if you wager a two team parlay. First, both teams can win. Second and Thiid, you can split the games. Team A wins and team B loses, or reversed. Fourth, both teams lose. Thus, the chances of winning both games is 1 in 4, or 3/1 against. Unfortunately, they books only pay out 13/5 instead of the 15/5 real odds. That is a difference of 2/15ths, or 13.3% instead of the 10% vig you pay on straight wagers.

If you take it to a 3 team parlay, your chances of winning are 7/1 against you, yet most books pay out only 6/1. That is a 14.3% disadvantage to you, even higher than the 2 teamer.

There is one slight edge that a parlay player can get, but he/she must do their homework. That edge is that games canhave different lines at different sportsbooks. You can take advantage of this by looking for middles on these cards, especially if the parlyas are "ties win" or "ties are no action" parlays. If you can find two favorites at, say -2 1/2 on one card, and -4 on another, you can middle this, and if the games fall in between, you can win big money.

 

[murphy2317]

I do small parlays every week, just like 5-10 dollar amounts. And I don't mind if I lose them..but are nice when you hit.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I do small parlays every week, just like 5-10 dollar amounts. And I don't mind if I lose them..but are nice when you hit.

Playing a small parlay strictly for fun? Surely we can finally all agree that there's never anything wrong with that.

 

[jcheckers]

Playing a small parlay strictly for fun? Surely we can finally all agree that there's never anything wrong with that.

I agree. I seriously doubt I could make a living playing parlays but
I do play small parlays especially teasers in the NFL when you can
move off of key numbers. A good example is last years Superbowl
where 6 pt. teasers hit any way you played them!!