Overthinking the '17 NFL playoffs..

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Your opinion means jack shit to me, which all that garbage you spewing is opinion. Steelers conveniently improved when they got to the charmin soft part of their schedule nothing more. If you think playing browns twice constitutes becoming a top defense you know less bout this shit than it initially appears when I see your crap post.

i hardly even brought up the 1st meeting as any type of factor so try reading whatever you feel like commenting on 1st., clown..

I lied, they only scored 12:ohno:
Defense shows up. I tried to worn you that 5 players were out the first game
 

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Since that game, Pitt has become one of the top defenses against the run including leading the league in sacks the last 8 games, thanks to Tuit and Shazier
Miami won't score 14

Nice "INCITE" there Woody! Lol!

And no, I'm not trying to "INSIGHT" a riot in this thread.
 

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I lied, they only scored 12:ohno:
Defense shows up. I tried to worn you that 5 players were out the first game

I needed 1 score to get to what I said, they turned it over in the red zone multiple times. Go blow yourself somewhere else clown. Typical loser so proud of accidentally getting a play right.
 

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Shake off that game today, nice 3-1 start to the postseason my friend! And excellent regular season, by the way

Appreciate the kind words. All good, can't win them all I'm over it, just been trying all week to wrap my head around this disturbing little fact i pretty much like every damn favorite again. Not that I never bet favs but admittedly I prefer doggies throughout the season and generally a healthy mix in playoffs. Obviously favs crushed last week and there not a dog I have the slightest bit of interest in this week.

I think dal gonna smash pack rather easily and I'm certainly laying the points there.

I'm fairly high on atl but not as eager to lay more than a fg (no issue with way you have sea and over teased), honestly feel like it very unlikely Seattle wins tho.

No clue or desire to try and figure out if hou can stay within that number.

pit winning wouldn't surprise me but I lean kc as I never go against Reid with a extra week to prepare so there that and steelers propensity to not be as good on the road playing in one of toughest places in league.

As as you can see won't be a dog on my card, been waiting hoping Seattle would take on some money allowing me to get atl closer to a fg or cheaper ml as I debate how to try and attack this weekend.
 

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divisional round

2 team ml parlay +117 (2x)

atl ml/dal ml

I been debating how to go about this weekend all week and suppose this best way I could think to go about it. I feel really strongly both the favs win here but am incredibly hesitant to lay the points especially w atl where the -4.5 feels incredibly sharp. I'll get into why i like atl to win in a moment I just fear there a really strong chance the spread comes into play. Not so much in Dallas where I feel the spread is short by at least a few points as I have boys -6 and that not even factoring jordy, while I'm hesitant to assign much of a point value to a wr the last 2 years have proven jordy's worth if you look back at pack offense last season and early this year before he had his legs under him. Fact is he a huge deal as even tho there no shortage of weapons in gb none of them have ever shown capable of filling his number 1 role so I think a case can be made Dallas could be a full td fav in this one, tons of value on dal ats and ml imo.

I said last week Seattle wasn't long for these playoffs and this the game I was circling for them to be bounced. In the second half of their 1st meeting Seattle had no answers for the atl offense and that was in Seattle with a healthy earl thomas. Now at home in the dome I just don't think sea can hold this offense from getting into the 30s. Granted the atl defense leaves plenty to be desired but they do have some guys who can do work vs seattle's pathetic oline. Don't let last weeks matchup vs cupcake lions fool ya into thinking anything has changed for this team. This team is avg less than 90 rushing yards a game on the road at less than a 4ypc clip. That isn't a run game that has proven it can travel and control a game which exactly what the defense needs if they hope to slow Ryan and co down. I have enough respect for Wilson to not lay the points as against this atl d I do think he more than capable of keeping his team in it. In the end I just think atl in the dome will be too much against the weakest version of Seattle in recent years..
 

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Thanks and good luck today my friend.....
 

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I actually like kc ats but think teasing steelers a no brainer as kc not the type to beat teams by more than a td, even tho I like chiefs I'd say they only team that could possibly be blown out here, don't think that happens just saying. I like pats game around 27-10 just feel better laying 9.5 than 15.5! If pats handle business there good chance I'll be on kc trying to hit twice on that game.
 

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1-0 today on bets completed bringing playoff total to 4-1 with a teaser and parlay pending after hitting 1st legs today. As mentioned I will almost assuredly play against pit teaser and take kc-2 looking for middle in game I think kc wins close. Even tho I now have 2u on Dallas to win at +117 I'm imcredibly tempted to be greedy and add another bill to boys-5 as I think this line short and Dallas gonna truck gb much like the 1st meeting. Might play a total as well, if I do I'll post it..
 

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Debating if I should wait to bet kc, thinking there no way kc gets to -3 but might be decent chance steelers money flips them to favs at some point. Be nice to get plus money and avoid paying juice on game im trying to middle.
 

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I was thinking it would go to -2 or -3

I can't see it hitting 3 with as big of public darlings the Steelers are, most the sharp kc cash got down when they opened it. No clue if I can actually get better number waiting I'm far from a line move expert but figure steelers will see majority of bets 2marro and then after squares who think a dog has to win get smoked backing packers they sure to chase even harder with pit. That why I think it can't hurt to wait but I could be wrong, might be smarter just to take now instead of risk it going to 3 and greatly reducing my percentages of middle.
 

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Dallas-5.5 (1x)..the fact I just need dal to win to collect 2.34u is only reason this a 1x play. I kept telling myself to be content with just the ml parlay but I can't ignore how I feel about this game so getting little greedy.,I've talked about this game a ton in various other threads so gonna keep it short here. Remember when Dallas went to lambou and kicked the shit out of pack from start to finish? Why are you letting packers winning out vs mostly scrubs be a bigger story? The story here is pack we're the healthier team in that game still having a semblance of a running game with lacy and jordy while Dallas played that game without dez. I have no freaking clue how this ridiculous narrative that packers the best or playing the best of anyone got started and even more baffled how much traction it has built. Let me make this real clear, packers are incredibly flawed and I don't care how many scrub teams they light up the fact they a notch below the top teams remains the same. Between that assinine theory that gb is playing better than anyone and the silly folks who think it as simple as taking discount double bitch vs dak while ignoring the fact that in the ultimate team game the cowboys are superior practically across the board, Dallas will physically dominate this overrated squad once again and leave little doubt how redic these narratives were when boys are who should be the talk of the town.
 

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