HPark, don't feel pregnant. I also took a loss. It was probably the most predictable Academy show that I've ever seen. It makes me think that at least half of the Academy voters just mailed it in...literally. I think they just checked off the favorites and were done with it. It's becoming too predictable.
Animated short was traded around 10:1 to 18:1 at betfair, Helium between +188 and +260 and 20ft from stardom around +140 (higher the days before the show).
Couple of others moved a lot, like "Her" from +140 to -250 (screenplay). But agree, lots of heavy chalk and little value to be had...thanks to HPark though, pushed me even more to laying "Act of Killing" at +100 and betting on Helium & the French entry. Also put in a small bet on Gravity for best picture, but overall one of the less attractive academy award shows (both from an entertainment and a betting point of view).
With the endless parade of awards shows prior to the Oscars and the growing list of people covering this aspect of Hollywood perhaps it does make it more and more predictable every year. Also perhaps a strange phenomenon of when a movie/actor wins a couple awards it then gives birth to a narrative and its a self fulfilling prophecy. Probably thinking too deeply, there is always value to be had in every environment, just nothing materialize to the point of cashing this year.
Will say though the awards would mean more and probably be a lot more unpredictable if the Academy had just the specific branches voting for their own award. ie cinematographers vote only for cinematography award etc. Find it ridiculous somebody in makeup can be casting a vote for best sound mixing or vice versa. At the end of the day that's why we get so many obvious winners because 90% of the people voting don't even have a clue what they're voting for. The winner for best sound/costumes/production design/editing and all these tech categories is almost always "the most" costumes/sound etc. Its rather pathetic. Although I suppose this whole awards season in general is a joke. Not sure where degenerate gamblers who then follow this stuff and place bets figure in...LOL
Will say though the awards would mean more and probably be a lot more unpredictable if the Academy had just the specific branches voting for their own award. ie cinematographers vote only for cinematography award etc. Find it ridiculous somebody in makeup can be casting a vote for best sound mixing or vice versa. At the end of the day that's why we get so many obvious winners because 90% of the people voting don't even have a clue what they're voting for. The winner for best sound/costumes/production design/editing and all these tech categories is almost always "the most" costumes/sound etc. Its rather pathetic. Although I suppose this whole awards season in general is a joke. Not sure where degenerate gamblers who then follow this stuff and place bets figure in...LOL
I have a feeling that 90% of the academy don't even really care that much. I was watching Imus In The Morning and he had a radio personality on his show who said he was an academy voter. He said he only watched half of the movies sent to him, and pretty much discarded the rest. Which means he just guessed at the multiple choices when filling out the ballot. It makes you wonder how many others do the same. The bad part about this is the Academy doesn't tell us who all of these voters are, or what they do. In most of these other awards shows we pretty much get an idea of who the voters are with the Actors Guild Awards and People's Choice. The Academy is a bit of a hodgepodge of everybody linked to the entertainment world. That's about like using the Coaches Poll for college football. Coaches don't keep up with what's happening around the country with the other teams. They're too busy with their own. Half of them have their coaching assistants fill out the ballots. They might as well have the academy voters doing it...ha!
