What I look for with 2nd half bets
I like betting 2H Overs (after a low-scoring 1H) and 2H Favorites (the bigger the game FAV, the better, at Home, when they are down a bunch at the half)...
Let's start with the Overs...
My last 2H bet on Sunday is an example of the "perfect storm" or should I say, perfect situation to bet a 2H Over...
Criteria I look for:
1) Total number of points scored must be low...By low, I mean, did we have a game in the 60s or low 70s at the half?...
2) Did both teams shoot poorly in the 1H?...By poorly, I mean one team MUST be below 35% (hopefully around 30%) and the other team should be less than 40% (closer to 35% would be nice)...
If 1 & 2 equals true on both counts then look at the 2H line...
3) Use this formula: Take (the original Vegas game total line) minus (the Vegas 2H total line) minus (the total number of points scored in the 1st half) and if this number is 30 or more, then we may have a play...
4) You look at the pace of the game...Add up the total number of shots taken and the total number of free-throws taken...80 shots taken and 20 FTs taken, give or take, is a "fast" pace...
Now I haven't sat down and written out specific criteria for what is a "fast" pace and what is not for the 1H, but I kind of "know it when I see it" based on experience and looking at tons of boxscores...Maybe I should write down specific criteria...
If all 4 of the above criteria are met, then this is automatic bet on the 2H Over...
You can bet the 2H Over if all 4 criteria are not met, but you better have 3 of the 4 criteria met to be on the safe side, and the pace of the 1H is the most important criteria that MUST be met...
I have seen plenty of games where 1 through 3 are met, but not #4, and the 2H total stays Under...#4 is the clincher in the deal...But if you got #4 met with ease, then you can skimp a little bit on the other 3 criteria and have them off by a little and still make a bet on the Over...
So there is the criteria, now let's examine the criteria in action, by looking at why I bet the Milwaukee/L.A. Lakers game Over 103.5, 2H, this past Sunday...
Game total: 211
Lakers 43-31 at the half
1H shooting: Milw 14-45, 31.1%, LAL 15-41, 36.6%
Total 1H shots: 86
Total 1H Free-throws taken: 21
Total points: 74
2H total line: 103.5
Criteria 1: 74
Criteria 2: 31% & 37%
Criteria 3: 211 - 103.5 - 74 = 33.5
Criteria 4: 86 shots & 21 FTs taken
All criteria met...Take the Over 103.5...
2H results:
MILW 21-47, 44.7%
also 16-20 from the FT line
LAL 19-29, 65.5%
also 22-26 from the FT line
2H shooting combined, 40-76, 52.6%
123 points scored...
Why do I use this criteria for a 2H Over?...
2 main reasons...
1) It is very rare for 2 teams to finish an NBA game at the percentages these 2 teams had at the half (31% and 37%)...Very, very rare, and I have 17+ NBA seasons worth of games (boxscores) to prove it...So it is very reasonable to assume, based on a sample of over 20,000 games, that when NBA teams shoot at very low percentages in the 1st half (like the MILW/LAL game cited above) then those percentages are going up in the 2H...It's called "returning to the mean"...This is NBA basketball, it's just the nature of the game for this to happen with professional athletes...
2) Not many NBA games that stay 30 points under the Vegas total...Does it ever happen?...Yes, of course it does, several times a season (during the course of over 1000 games per season)...But when an NBA game does stay 30 or more points below the Vegas line, the PACE of the game is way, way slower than the pace was for this MILW/LAL game in the 1H...
hno:
