One stat I always keep in mind when thinking/betting on teams to win the championship is that all 17 champions in the BCS and CFP era had at least one top 10 recruiting class (per rivals) on their roster. This quickly cuts the field down from 128 to 18 of teams that could win the championship. Some year someone might break through but right now that stat is 17 for 17. I'm not going against it. Top 10 classes over the last four years:
4 top 10 classes: Alabama, Auburn, Ohio St, Florida St
3 top 10 classes: USC, Florida, LSU
2 top 10 classes: Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Michigan
1 top 10 class: Clemson, Texas, Stanford, Miami, Notre Dame, UCLA, Ole Miss