EGD...
The line difference to me has everything to do with the public betting Boise State for the past two years and the books taking a beating. Line has dropped back down to 7 in some places.
Real quick about last year's game. It wasn't as close as the newspapers have you think. Steven Jackson played but was nursing a sore knee. Boise State scored two touchdowns on plays over 60 yards. For the most part, OSU's defense held a much more experienced BSU team (compared to this year's) in check. They gained 381 yards on offense. Respectable against a Pac 10 team but well under their capabilities.
But most importantly, Oregon State racked up 560+ yards on what was absolutely a better and deeper BSU defense. OSU played a bad game and kept it close. They should have scored at least another two touchdowns. They kicked four field goals, one from the 5 yard line!
One more thing...Oregon State has been a very good road team ATS the past five years, especially when they are getting points.
I guess we will see where it goes, but like I said, I'll take an upper-echelon Pac 10 team getting more than a touchdown against a good but much smaller and slower WAC team anyday.
The line difference to me has everything to do with the public betting Boise State for the past two years and the books taking a beating. Line has dropped back down to 7 in some places.
Real quick about last year's game. It wasn't as close as the newspapers have you think. Steven Jackson played but was nursing a sore knee. Boise State scored two touchdowns on plays over 60 yards. For the most part, OSU's defense held a much more experienced BSU team (compared to this year's) in check. They gained 381 yards on offense. Respectable against a Pac 10 team but well under their capabilities.
But most importantly, Oregon State racked up 560+ yards on what was absolutely a better and deeper BSU defense. OSU played a bad game and kept it close. They should have scored at least another two touchdowns. They kicked four field goals, one from the 5 yard line!
One more thing...Oregon State has been a very good road team ATS the past five years, especially when they are getting points.
I guess we will see where it goes, but like I said, I'll take an upper-echelon Pac 10 team getting more than a touchdown against a good but much smaller and slower WAC team anyday.
I was watching last year's game & Boise St moved the ball pretty decently against OSU. Sometimes they shoot themselves in the foot though. They had the momentum late in that game & stopped OSU clearly but got robbed by a stupid call by the refs.
I personally don't believe in Riley as a gameday coach & that human INT machine in Anderson under center. I think they get smoked in this game. I doubt the last thing these kids want is to travel to Boise just to play the Broncos after playing the defending champs.
The game should be a good one to watch. GL on your plays this week. What do you think of UCLA vs Illinois? I thought I was getting some nice value in Illinois @ +5.5 & see it has come down some already.
I personally don't believe in Riley as a gameday coach & that human INT machine in Anderson under center. I think they get smoked in this game. I doubt the last thing these kids want is to travel to Boise just to play the Broncos after playing the defending champs.
The game should be a good one to watch. GL on your plays this week. What do you think of UCLA vs Illinois? I thought I was getting some nice value in Illinois @ +5.5 & see it has come down some already.
I don't know alot about Illinois and have yet to cap this game, but I do know UCLA is miserable, their coach may lose his job this year if they don't have a winning season, and Illinois must be REALLY bad to be a dog at home against UCLA.
BTW...I agree with you on Riley, as I regularly harp on him. But I think he did a fairly good job at LSU and had a good game plan. He got too conservative in the 2nd half. LSU was having trouble all day with the tight-end and passes to the backs out of the backfield. They were non-existent for much of the 2nd half. OSU had LSU's D on the ropes, especially their defensive front, which was exhausted rushing Anderson.
You also mentioned that the rain helped OSU. I don't agree. OSU is a very fast team, so the rain hurt both. I think the biggest difference is that LSU just isn't that good on offense this year, especially at receiver. I'm not gonna lie, that was a shell of the LSU team that won the national championship...especially on offense.
Defensively LSU will be solid, although I think OSU exposed a huge weakness, one that I think Florida took advantage of last year.
Good luck to you too
BTW...I agree with you on Riley, as I regularly harp on him. But I think he did a fairly good job at LSU and had a good game plan. He got too conservative in the 2nd half. LSU was having trouble all day with the tight-end and passes to the backs out of the backfield. They were non-existent for much of the 2nd half. OSU had LSU's D on the ropes, especially their defensive front, which was exhausted rushing Anderson.
You also mentioned that the rain helped OSU. I don't agree. OSU is a very fast team, so the rain hurt both. I think the biggest difference is that LSU just isn't that good on offense this year, especially at receiver. I'm not gonna lie, that was a shell of the LSU team that won the national championship...especially on offense.
Defensively LSU will be solid, although I think OSU exposed a huge weakness, one that I think Florida took advantage of last year.
Good luck to you too
WC - I would like to see your view on the UCLA game also. I really like Illinois here to win. They didn't beat a Div 1 team last season. They do return a 6th year qb in Beuchter. Illini and UCLA's programs are very similar right now. It is a very big game for Illini with Western Michigan next, could be 3-0.
Is there anything worse than 2 horrible teams playing each other? Illini is pathetic, and UCLA is just in front of them. Beating up on the Rattlers doesn't make me see any value, nor does the OSU game show me anything in UCLA. I hate betting on stinky teams, and will most likely avoid this outhouse of a game.
One thought on UCLA was that they moved the ball consistently against a pretty salty OSU defense both on the ground and in the air. Also note that 21 points from OSU came from UCLA TO's. Finally, I doubt Illini has a Morrisey in their backfield. I'll let them bet the number down and play UCLA as PK. They win it outright IMHO.
ASU - I hope they are looking forward to NW since the IOWA game in on deck back in TEMPE. LY they went to IOWA and was completely dominated. So those playing ASU be weary of them perhaps looking ahead to Hawkeyes instead of concentrating on Cats in Evanston.
WinOne!!
ASU - I hope they are looking forward to NW since the IOWA game in on deck back in TEMPE. LY they went to IOWA and was completely dominated. So those playing ASU be weary of them perhaps looking ahead to Hawkeyes instead of concentrating on Cats in Evanston.
WinOne!!
You've probably seen this, but I thought I'd throw it your way anyhow.
Just a quote from the cbssportsline review of the weekend:
It should be pointed out how impressive it was that 8,000 Oregon State fans showed up in Baton Rouge. The school sold out of its allotment of 5,000. Somehow Beavers fans got hold of 3,000 more tickets and were heard throughout the game in Death Valley. This e-mail was sent to SportsLine.com Saturday night from one LSU fan: "LSU fans combine their extreme passion for football with dangerous Louisiana-style alcohol consumption, causing them to be ruthless and downright rude to visitors. But I thought the OSU fans were probably the classiest fans I have met. Before, during AND after the game."
Just a quote from the cbssportsline review of the weekend:
It should be pointed out how impressive it was that 8,000 Oregon State fans showed up in Baton Rouge. The school sold out of its allotment of 5,000. Somehow Beavers fans got hold of 3,000 more tickets and were heard throughout the game in Death Valley. This e-mail was sent to SportsLine.com Saturday night from one LSU fan: "LSU fans combine their extreme passion for football with dangerous Louisiana-style alcohol consumption, causing them to be ruthless and downright rude to visitors. But I thought the OSU fans were probably the classiest fans I have met. Before, during AND after the game."
on 1 side of the ball we have an emotionally spent OSU team that will also be physically tired facing a Boise team that has been killers at home and also might still recall a pathetic ref's call in LY osu/boise game that cost them the game.
when boise has had the chance to stomp an opponent's face in the dirt - they have - especially at home.
buy down to -7 and lay boise w/confidence.
when boise has had the chance to stomp an opponent's face in the dirt - they have - especially at home.
buy down to -7 and lay boise w/confidence.
I don't like this spot for Oregon St coming off a toughgame, but Boise ST has a new QB and very few returning starters.Too me this is a toss up as to what is going to happen? If Oregon St comes in flat they will be run out of Boise. If they come in pumped they should win the game outright causing all sorts of problems for the new QB. I will take the ML on Oregon ST to win 1 unit, Will have to risk less them 1/2 unit if I am wrong. GL
Best bet on this game is to not bet it.
No one knows how Oregon State will come out.
1. They could come out extremely fired up knowing they almost beat the defending national champs.
2. They could come out very flat knowing the biggest win this year already passed them by.
You don't know how they will come out so I wouldn't even bet it. Boise St. is a very good team regardless of OSU.
And we can all agree on that the OSU kicker sucks.
Just my thoughts.
No one knows how Oregon State will come out.
1. They could come out extremely fired up knowing they almost beat the defending national champs.
2. They could come out very flat knowing the biggest win this year already passed them by.
You don't know how they will come out so I wouldn't even bet it. Boise St. is a very good team regardless of OSU.
And we can all agree on that the OSU kicker sucks.
Just my thoughts.
Boise State has been a covering machine. They lost a lot of talent, but is it the players or the system? (Texas Tech reloads and scores oodles of points year after year....too bad they can't play D.)
If forced to pick, would take the dog +points, but don't forget the effect that funky blue turf has on opponents!
If forced to pick, would take the dog +points, but don't forget the effect that funky blue turf has on opponents!
Wow....lots of opinions in here...all good except the one about LSU's defense being overrated.
Quick note about Boise State. They do dominate small conference teams, but keep in mind their record against BCS conference schools.
Since 2000 Boise State has racked up an impressive 43-8 record. However, in that span, against BCS conference schools, Boise State is just 1-6, with their one win coming against a 7-6 Iowa State team in the Humanitarian (Boise State) Bowl.
I won't doubt any of you who are betting Boise State, they certainly have proved themselves a worthy opponent at home.
But they obviously have trouble stepping up against BCS conference schools, and laying 8 points (today's oly line) is a hell of a lot for a young, inexperienced offense playing against one of the best defenses in the country.
Quick note about Boise State. They do dominate small conference teams, but keep in mind their record against BCS conference schools.
Since 2000 Boise State has racked up an impressive 43-8 record. However, in that span, against BCS conference schools, Boise State is just 1-6, with their one win coming against a 7-6 Iowa State team in the Humanitarian (Boise State) Bowl.
I won't doubt any of you who are betting Boise State, they certainly have proved themselves a worthy opponent at home.
But they obviously have trouble stepping up against BCS conference schools, and laying 8 points (today's oly line) is a hell of a lot for a young, inexperienced offense playing against one of the best defenses in the country.
