Oregon QB leaves the team

[SoonerBS]

Hines...I think you nailed it with the Big 12. I loved them last season. But personally, I think this is going to be an overrated conference this season. And I am going to play it as such in their out of conference games. In the South you've got an OU team that lost pretty much their entire O-Line. And something tells me that despite a good group of RB's, they aren't going to have as much success running the ball as everybody thinks..Obviously I hope I'm wrong.. Texas Tech graduated their key playmakers on offense. Baylor will probably be a bit better. Perhaps good enough to make a bowl. But no more than that. Texas A&M will be a tad better. But in the grand scheme of things doesn't really say much. OSU is still a little bit of a mystery to me because I'm still not 100% sure how good of an overall coach that Gundy is with a highly ranked team with big expectations. And I think this team still has several obstacles to overcome like replacing a couple very good players on their O-Line. And more importantly showing that they've improved in their front 7 on defense. And I'm still not getting any strong indications that they have. All I know for sure is they have a new DC. But last time I looked these guys don't suit up and play. Texas is probably the flagship team of the South this season. But they need to show me more on offense before I call them a National Title contender..The North Division gets 2 new coaches. And each of the other teams have more than a few question marks that rule them out of winning the conference. I could be wrong, but right now I don't see anybody in the North Division who is a top 20 team. If Hawkins can somehow put everything together at Colorado, they do have the personnel to be a top 20 team. A big if.. Right now I'm looking at 4 teams from this conference who had a great ATS record last season (8 wins or more ATS). They were Texas, OU, Baylor and OSU. This is usually the kiss of death in the following year...We'll have to see if they can overcome..But I will be very very hesitant to just lay my money down freely on any of these four teams. Especially with all of the hype that each is getting. And we're still over 3 months out from kickoff.

I think Texas will be a good ATS play on team in September. Wyoming and UTEP have been getting some preseason love, so I'm thinking we may get some line value in those games (although we're probably still looking at lines around the -28 mark, I think). Texas should kill Texas Tech this year.

I think Texas is going to find some playmakers on offense. Their line is solid and McCoy is one of the best QBs in the game. They are going to do like Oklahoma this season and run a "RBs by Committee" type of format. They'll find some other WRs to go with Shipley because they are loaded with talent. The defense will be tough again, if not better, after another year under Muschamp.

The thing we have to remember is that Texas got burned by the BCS last season. I don't think Brown will think twice this season about leaving out the hounds and running up the scores -- especially since he has an easy schedule and needs every advantage he can get to climb up the BCS formula ladder.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Texas is in good shape at receiver. James Kirkendoll and Brandon Collins started to get in the rotation at receiver last season, and it'll be interesting to see how former quarterback John Chiles does at that position. He's faster than a prom date, but we won't know for a while yet how his hands are or if he can run routes.

The running back spot is a real concern, though. Mack Brown keeps sticking different guys back there, but none of the main three have stepped up and shown that they can run as good as McCoy. And if McCoy is the top rusher again, there's always that chance of injury.

 

[Conan]

That Oregon St. Pittsburgh Sun Bowl this year was just putrid. However, it showed me how great of a coach Mike Riley is. When the year started Oregon State looked to have one of the worst run defenses in the country. They graduated their entire front seven I believe and got torched on the ground in their first game against Stanford. By the end of the year though, they had a pretty good run defense. Amazing that Riley hasn't gotten real sniffs from bigger schools yet.....getting it done in Corvallis is pretty impressive.

I agree with your general sentiment though. Let's us also know which conferences are overrated as well.....I'm looking at you Big XII.

HW, you are right on about Riley. What you don't know about him is that he is a home grown Corvallis native (along with some of his ACs) who are right where they want to be. Riley already did his stint in the NFL at San Diego and it didn't work for him.

I think it's an ex classmate of his, his OC that came over from the local HS where he coached the varsity football team. Typical for them to keep it close. There are other coaches on his staff who are happily camped out right where they want to be too.

Riley and his coaches are finely tuned talent scouts that find players who seem to fly under everyone's radar. Considering the number of players the Beavers place on all-conference teams, I think they know exactly what they are doing. They routinely make sites like scout.com and rivals.com look inept. There's no doubt in my mind that they are as keen at spotting talent as any scout in college football can be.

They are not in it for the money. Riley's getting less than $500k/yr, maybe around $350k if I remember right. I don't recall exactly, but I'm sure he could get twice as much if he chose to work elsewhere. But neither he nor his staff want to leave. Maybe one or two will move on once in a while but they stick together like a family up there.

I should also mention that Mark Banker, Riley's DC is one of the best kept secrets in the Pac-10. Typically he will start from scratch with an empty roster, fill it with no-name players, then coach them up into one of the country's top ranked defenses year after year. When he's done with them, he sees them off to play in the NFL; this year they were second only to USC in number drafted.

Corvallis is home to them and they all seem to like it right where they are. They are pretty well taken care of for that region. It doesn't look like something a big offer for money can break up very easily. How rare is that in this world?

 

[GoSooners]

Texas is in good shape at receiver. James Kirkendoll and Brandon Collins started to get in the rotation at receiver last season, and it'll be interesting to see how former quarterback John Chiles does at that position. He's faster than a prom date, but we won't know for a while yet how his hands are or if he can run routes.

The running back spot is a real concern, though. Mack Brown keeps sticking different guys back there, but none of the main three have stepped up and shown that they can run as good as McCoy. And if McCoy is the top rusher again, there's always that chance of injury.

AA...I think it's not only the running part. Mack is probably weighing his options on which back is better at doing the 3 fundamentals the best, running/pass blocking/catching the ball out of the backfield. This is the only thing really that concerns me about Texas. They look very solid most everwhere else.

BS...I think what we are going to find in Texas games this season is having to give a ridiculously high amount of points in each. . So even though i see the Horns winning their games handily, I don't see them covering all of them. Like I've said before on here, I think the linesmakers up the ante the next year after they see a national power team have a successful ATS season. Here were the original point spreads on the left side along with their game scores. And on the very right of the column is what I think Vegas would set the point spread if they played those very same games and teams this year:


(-24) beat FAU 52-10 (-31) W
(-26 beat at UTEP 42-13 (-30) L
(-29) beat Rice 52-10 (-36) W
(-27) beat Arkansas 52-10 (-34) W
(-12) beat Colorado 38-14 (-16) W
(+6) beat Oklahoma 45-35 (-1) W
(-4) beat Mizzou 56-31 (-11) W
(-11) beat OSU 28-24 (-18) L
(-3) lost at Texas Tech 33-39 (-7) L
(-27) beat Baylor 45-21 (-34) L
(-13) won at Kansas 35-7 (-17) W
(-35) beat Texas A&M 49-9 (-42) L

I believe with Texas being rated number 2 in the country, and considering the margins of victory they had last season, on average they'll have to score a full TD more at home to cover the spreads this season, and another 4 points or more on the road considering the home team gets 3 points for home field advantage. Going by that theory Texas would have won just 7 games ATS this year instead of 9. This is about what I expect out of them in 2009. Around 7 wins ATS.

 

[SoonerBS]

AA...I think it's not only the running part. Mack is probably weighing his options on which back is better at doing the 3 fundamentals the best, running/pass blocking/catching the ball out of the backfield. This is the only thing really that concerns me about Texas. They look very solid most everwhere else.

BS...I think what we are going to find in Texas games this season is having to give a ridiculously high amount of points in each. . So even though i see the Horns winning their games handily, I don't see them covering all of them. Like I've said before on here, I think the linesmakers up the ante the next year after they see a national power team have a successful ATS season. Here were the original point spreads on the left side along with their game scores. And on the very right of the column is what I think Vegas would set the point spread if they played those very same games and teams this year:


(-24) beat FAU 52-10 (-31) W
(-26 beat at UTEP 42-13 (-30) L
(-29) beat Rice 52-10 (-36) W
(-27) beat Arkansas 52-10 (-34) W
(-12) beat Colorado 38-14 (-16) W
(+6) beat Oklahoma 45-35 (-1) W
(-4) beat Mizzou 56-31 (-11) W
(-11) beat OSU 28-24 (-18) L
(-3) lost at Texas Tech 33-39 (-7) L
(-27) beat Baylor 45-21 (-34) L
(-13) won at Kansas 35-7 (-17) W
(-35) beat Texas A&M 49-9 (-42) L

I believe with Texas being rated number 2 in the country, and considering the margins of victory they had last season, on average they'll have to score a full TD more at home to cover the spreads this season, and another 4 points or more on the road considering the home team gets 3 points for home field advantage. Going by that theory Texas would have won just 7 games ATS this year instead of 9. This is about what I expect out of them in 2009. Around 7 wins ATS.

If I see a -7 line whenever they play Tech, I'm mortgaging the house. It will be very interesting to see the "Game of the Year" lines whenever they come out towards the end of July.

 

[GoSooners]

If I see a -7 line whenever they play Tech, I'm mortgaging the house. It will be very interesting to see the "Game of the Year" lines whenever they come out towards the end of July.

BS...I'm going strictly by last seasons games. There's no way we're going to see a -7 with Tech this year. What I think could happen with Texas is the linesmakers won't be able to set the lines high enough in their first couple games. And when they see Texas covering the spreads just like they did last season they'll start making some big adjustments with the lines. Just a feeling, but I think Texas will have a very tough time covering it's spreads in the second half of the season as opposed to the first. So take advantage of them early.

 

[GoSooners]

BS...I'm going strictly by last seasons games. There's no way we're going to see a -7 with Tech this year. What I think could happen with Texas is the linesmakers won't be able to set the lines high enough in their first couple games. And when they see Texas covering the spreads just like they did last season they'll start making some big adjustments with the lines. Just a feeling, but I think Texas will have a very tough time covering it's spreads in the second half of the season as opposed to the first. So take advantage of them early.

Something else about with Texas and the point spread. If they cover like I think they might in their first couple of games, they've basically layed the foundation for the rest of the season. But after these big wins, people tend to expect them to keep up the good work once they get into conference play. This is much easier said than done. Texas was 7-0 ATS in their first 7 games last year. But only 2-4 ATS in their last 6. Including their ATS loss to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. Something to think about since this is pretty much the same team as last year.

 

[HinesWard86]

Hines...I think you nailed it with the Big 12. I loved them last season. But personally, I think this is going to be an overrated conference this season. And I am going to play it as such in their out of conference games. In the South you've got an OU team that lost pretty much their entire O-Line. And something tells me that despite a good group of RB's, they aren't going to have as much success running the ball as everybody thinks..Obviously I hope I'm wrong.. Texas Tech graduated their key playmakers on offense. Baylor will probably be a bit better. Perhaps good enough to make a bowl. But no more than that. Texas A&M will be a tad better. But in the grand scheme of things doesn't really say much. OSU is still a little bit of a mystery to me because I'm still not 100% sure how good of an overall coach that Gundy is with a highly ranked team with big expectations. And I think this team still has several obstacles to overcome like replacing a couple very good players on their O-Line. And more importantly showing that they've improved in their front 7 on defense. And I'm still not getting any strong indications that they have. All I know for sure is they have a new DC. But last time I looked these guys don't suit up and play. Texas is probably the flagship team of the South this season. But they need to show me more on offense before I call them a National Title contender..The North Division gets 2 new coaches. And each of the other teams have more than a few question marks that rule them out of winning the conference. I could be wrong, but right now I don't see anybody in the North Division who is a top 20 team. If Hawkins can somehow put everything together at Colorado, they do have the personnel to be a top 20 team. A big if.. Right now I'm looking at 4 teams from this conference who had a great ATS record last season (8 wins or more ATS). They were Texas, OU, Baylor and OSU. This is usually the kiss of death in the following year...We'll have to see if they can overcome..But I will be very very hesitant to just lay my money down freely on any of these four teams. Especially with all of the hype that each is getting. And we're still over 3 months out from kickoff.

Baylor I like a lot this year. Robert Griffin showed me a ton and we have seen that in CFB, mobility and speed is the most important thing in quarterbacks.....especially to teams that aren't that great. Griffin is an amazing talent and under Briles will only get better. I really think Baylor has a legitimate chance to make their first bowl game in ages this year.

 

[GoSooners]

Baylor I like a lot this year. Robert Griffin showed me a ton and we have seen that in CFB, mobility and speed is the most important thing in quarterbacks.....especially to teams that aren't that great. Griffin is an amazing talent and under Briles will only get better. I really think Baylor has a legitimate chance to make their first bowl game in ages this year.

Hines...Baylor will be improved and might possibly make a bowl. But don't forget that this team won't be sneaking up on anybody this season like they did last year. They also lose a couple good offensive lineman. Griffin loses his LT that protects his blindside. And their RT Dan Gay went high in the NFL draft. Griffin was also more successful early in the season than he was later in the year when the Big 12 defenses started catching on to their offense. Briles will have to put some new schemes in this year. And the Baylor's defense will have to get better. I think it will. And this could raise them to the next level to a bowl. But I think the Baylor offense will have about the same offensive production as it had last season. Also remember, I said these teams won't do as well against the spread. I didn't say they wouldn't win their games. BIG difference.