Opening Lines for Major Games

[NickyE]

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska

This is easy money. Nebraska hasn't beaten a good team at home forever. I'm from here and I know this team. They have a decent running back. They don't have any receivers and Oklahoma's defense is going to be top notch. Also an interesting note is USC and Missouri were both laying the same number (9 or 9.5) the past two years and they both throttled Nebraska. This year NU needs to break in a new quarterback and the only tough game they play early is Virginia Tech. Oklahoma will have plenty of weapons on offense to keep this game out of reach. Also Oklahoma's d-line will stop anything Nebraska tries to do. This is the future wager of the year to me so far.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

This is a bad situation for Nebraska. They catch OU after a game at Baylor, which could be a lot tougher than expected, and before a game at Kansas, which could decide the Big 12 North Championship. For OU, this game is sandwiched in between home games against two weaklings, Kansas State and Texas A&M. Since these two do not play each other very often, the numbers against each other mean little. Nebraska is a good conference home dog, with a 6-1 record in their past 7 attempts. If they hammer Baylor, they may have some good momentum behind them going into the OU game. That would be about the only circumstance I could see taking anything under 10 in that game.

 

[SoonerBS]

Friday, September 25, 2009
1059 MISSOURI -5
1060 NEVADA

IF there are no injuries and everything remains the same, you can bank on Nevada here. No way Missouri should be favored in this match-up right now.

 

[NickyE]

Sooner

I agree sooner. Missouri is replacing the entire team. Nevada's offense really impressed me at the end of last year. They are also at home. This is good teaser territory too.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Hard to see why Mizzou is favored in that game. Away game against an explosive offense. Granted that Nevada's defense could not stop my great grand daughter on her trike, but Mizzou's is not much better. This would be understandable if the line were reversed. Still, there is too muck risk and too many unknowns for me right now.

 

[rloup1]

Friday, September 25, 2009
1059 MISSOURI -5
1060 NEVADA

IF there are no injuries and everything remains the same, you can bank on Nevada here. No way Missouri should be favored in this match-up right now.

Was planning on fading Missouri early myself. If one could get down on this now, & Bowling Green exposes them on the Sept. 12, he might get a nice middle opportunity. Then again Nev. will probably smoke 'em.

 

[GoSooners]

Friday, September 25, 2009
1059 MISSOURI -5
1060 NEVADA

IF there are no injuries and everything remains the same, you can bank on Nevada here. No way Missouri should be favored in this match-up right now.

Yeah, if I was going to bet a game early, this would probably be the one. You have to figure that if Illinois smokes Mizzou by a couple TD's or more in that first game, this 5 point spread over Nevada will all but evaporate. You could potentially see as much as a 8 to 10 point swing from this line.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

There could be a big swing, but Missouri has to get pounded by Illinois, and Nevada must show something against Notre Dame. Also remember that Nevada goes to Colorado State the week before the Mizzou game. While not much is expected out of Colorado State, you never know with these WAC vs MWC games. This is way this game is a pass for me. There are just too many unknowns. But I certainly can see why people would be jumping on the Nevada bandwagon in this game.

 

[SoonerBS]

There could be a big swing, but Missouri has to get pounded by Illinois, and Nevada must show something against Notre Dame. Also remember that Nevada goes to Colorado State the week before the Mizzou game. While not much is expected out of Colorado State, you never know with these WAC vs MWC games. This is way this game is a pass for me. There are just too many unknowns. But I certainly can see why people would be jumping on the Nevada bandwagon in this game.

The place to play on Nevada will be at home. I think Colorado State could be a good play at home against Nevada the week before this game. But, I still think Nevada wins this game straight up regardless of what happens at Colorado State the week before.

 

[xyzky]

Really looking forward to this game! I need to find a book in Reno that has the early lines up!!

 

[groundhog11]

wvu-3.vs. pitt
wvu+3 vs. cin
aub-4 vs. wvu

 

[BigdaddyQH]

wvu-3.vs. pitt
wvu+3 vs. cin
aub-4 vs. wvu

What do you think Auburn is going to do for an offense? 4 points is a lot to give away if you are looking at a low scoring game, and this is what I see now. Auburn's coaching change was your basic disaster.

 

[SoonerBS]

What do you think Auburn is going to do for an offense? 4 points is a lot to give away if you are looking at a low scoring game, and this is what I see now. Auburn's coaching change was your basic disaster.

I wasn't enamored with Auburn's choice of Chizik either, BUT if he allows his OC, Gus Malzahn, to have free reins with their offense, they WILL be better offensively this year. Auburn's cupboard is not bare, there are a lot of talented athletes on the roster in this program.

Last year's travesty was not a personnel problem team-wise, it was a boneheaded move by Tuberville to all of a sudden hire a new OC who totally changed the offensive system. Then, in mid-season whenever it was obvious it was not working, he fired the OC and tried to go back to the old system somewhat. You just can't do that in the middle of the season. Auburn was a much better team than what they looked last year. Even their defense looked bad as the whole team chemistry was way off.

They'll be a lot better this season.

 

[GoSooners]

I think it's way too early to prejudge Gene Chizik based on just two years at one of the worst schools to start your college coaching career. The problem with Auburn is they simply don't have the offensive talent, no matter what new system they put in place there. For some reason Tuberville was never been able to recruit the offensive talent like he did the defensive talent, as indicated by their SEC scoring average for the last few years. But hiring OC Malzahn is still a big step up from what they had last year. And I think he'll put the pieces of the puzzle together much better than Tony Franklin did. I look for their offensive production to go up, which should take some of the pressure off of a defense who was out on the field for what was probably close to 40 minutes a game last year. So their production should go up too. Auburn is still terrible at the QB position. So I think they'll still have problems on the road. But they get 8 home games this year, including their first 4. Which should help a great deal. I'm still seriously considering this team for the over in their team win totals for the season despite their lack of offensive talent. Right now I'm seeing them at 7.5 wins according to what is listed at the Greek according to this board. If I can shop them at 7 at another book then I might get the over.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I see Auburn with losses in all of their away games (at Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia) plus a loss to Alabama. I also think they lose to West Virginia, who has a pretty decent QB in Jarrett Brown, returning talent at RB and WR, and a defense that is much better than people think. That adds up to 6 losses, so under 7 1/2 looks like a good play. I'm also looking at taking West Virginia + 4 points in that game. Both teams should be undefeated, so I do not see a lot of line movement before that game. The problem with taking Auburn under 7 1/2 is that you will laying 2/1, or somewheres in that neighborhood.

 

[GoSooners]

I see Auburn with losses in all of their away games (at Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia) plus a loss to Alabama. I also think they lose to West Virginia, who has a pretty decent QB in Jarrett Brown, returning talent at RB and WR, and a defense that is much better than people think. That adds up to 6 losses, so under 7 1/2 looks like a good play. I'm also looking at taking West Virginia + 4 points in that game. Both teams should be undefeated, so I do not see a lot of line movement before that game. The problem with taking Auburn under 7 1/2 is that you will laying 2/1, or somewheres in that neighborhood.

I'm not quite as high on WV and Jarrett Brown as your are. WV won many of their games over the last 4 years on Pat White's shoulders alone. And he was able to improvise better than any QB in the game since Vince Young. That kind of talent is not replaced overnight. Brown might be a decent QB. But there is a reason why he was Pat White's backup all of these years. Their first road trip will be against this Auburn team. And WV still has some question marks in their offensive line. Not a good thing when facing one of the better defenses in the SEC on the road. I look for both of these offenses to struggle in this game. But I tend to favor the home team from the better conference in games like this. We should get a little bit better idea about how good WV is after their game with East Carolina, who has a pretty good defense of their own. And may be the best team in the CUSA. If WV struggles offensively against ECU, I know they'll struggle on the road at Auburn.

 

[SoonerBS]

I'm not quite as high on WV and Jarrett Brown as your are. WV won many of their games over the last 4 years on Pat White's shoulders alone. And he was able to improvise better than any QB in the game since Vince Young. That kind of talent is not replaced overnight. Brown might be a decent QB. But there is a reason why he was Pat White's backup all of these years. Their first road trip will be against this Auburn team. And WV still has some question marks in their offensive line. Not a good thing when facing one of the better defenses in the SEC on the road. I look for both of these offenses to struggle in this game. But I tend to favor the home team from the better conference in games like this. We should get a little bit better idea about how good WV is after their game with East Carolina, who has a pretty good defense of their own. And may be the best team in the CUSA. If WV struggles offensively against ECU, I know they'll struggle on the road at Auburn.

New QBs are always hard to predict. I remember whenever Sam Bradford had his first season. Everyone here in Sooner land was a bit apprehensive and NO ONE dreamed he would have a season like he did.

Jarrett Brown for WVU is not a complete unknown, but no one will truly know how productive he will be now that he is the sole leader of the team. I will say this, if he doesn't have a good season, Noel Devine will not be enough to save this team. I think that everybody is putting the success of the season on Noel Devine's shoulders and saying that since he is such a great running back, then WVU is going to be great again. BUT, I'm saying that if there is no pass production from Brown, teams will stack the box and stop Devine all season.

One star just doesn't get the job done in successful seasons. WVU better get some production from their almost completely new offensive line, too, or Devine and Brown neither one will do shit.

 

[GoSooners]

Florida -16 over Georgia is the line that sticks out to me. In Richt's 8 years at Georgia no opposing team has covered a spread against them of more than 7 points. Under Richt, with the exception of Florida last season (-6), Georgia has also never lost ATS as 4 point dogs or more. Something to maybe keep in mind if the line should get out of hand in their first game with OSU..

 

[groundhog11]

What do you think Auburn is going to do for an offense? 4 points is a lot to give away if you are looking at a low scoring game, and this is what I see now. Auburn's coaching change was your basic disaster.

your probably right....will wait and see how wvu does against ecu the week before....

 

[groundhog11]

I see Auburn with losses in all of their away games (at Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia) plus a loss to Alabama. I also think they lose to West Virginia, who has a pretty decent QB in Jarrett Brown, returning talent at RB and WR, and a defense that is much better than people think. That adds up to 6 losses, so under 7 1/2 looks like a good play. I'm also looking at taking West Virginia + 4 points in that game. Both teams should be undefeated, so I do not see a lot of line movement before that game. The problem with taking Auburn under 7 1/2 is that you will laying 2/1, or somewheres in that neighborhood.

the defense will be loaded...probably the best unit up there since 1996 when they led the country.....wvu should win the big east.....only problem seems to be if the o-line can come along....this is the 1st time in 3 years that they have had there o-line coach come back....so that should help to not have to learn a new system....