SportSavant,
If HPark1's numbers are correct, then you might have some value. I don't have a clue about NFL and meaning of key numbers, so I have to trust HPark1's numbers.
As told before, you lose money if you get only 4 out of 6. Only one ticket left with winning 67% of the games and you get only 67% of your investment back in that case, so not good.
Winning 5 of 6, you have won 83% of the games and get 50 units back, and because you invested 15 units, your payout is 2.33-1.
What if you make 3 teamers instead of 4 teamears? If you hit 6/6 of course payout is smaller, but your risk is smaller also.
As I posted earlier with 4 teamers, each individual wager is -129. With 3 teamers each straight wager is about -141, because 3 teamer pays out 4-1.
Here are three systems for you. First includes 3 tickets and 5 teams, second 6 and last 10 tickets both with 6 teams.
First
1 2 3
1 2 5
3 4 5
If you get 3 of 5, you have average 30% chance to hit 1 ticket.
If you get 4 of 5, you have average 1.2 ticket correct. (Usually only one)
Second
1 2 4
1 3 6
1 5 6
2 3 5
2 4 6
3 4 5
If you get 3 of 6, you have average 30% chance to hit 1 ticket.
If you get 4 of 6, you have average 1.2 ticket correct. (Usually only one)
If you get 5 of 6, you have 3 winning tickets.
Third
1 2 4
1 2 5
1 3 4
1 3 6
1 5 6
2 3 5
2 3 6
2 4 6
3 4 5
4 5 6
If you get 3 of 6, you have average 50% chance to hit 1 ticket.
If you get 4 of 6, you have 2 winning tickets.
If you get 5 of 6, you have 5 winning tickets.
If you think that you always get 4 correct, then First or Third system is an answer. Of course you have only 5 teams in First system, but you can throw the weakiest team away.
These systems might be good also, if you like to make normal parlays, with a book which offers true odds or reduced juice parlays.
I recommend to make only straight wagers and forget parlays, but do what you wanna do.
If HPark1's numbers are correct, then you might have some value. I don't have a clue about NFL and meaning of key numbers, so I have to trust HPark1's numbers.
As told before, you lose money if you get only 4 out of 6. Only one ticket left with winning 67% of the games and you get only 67% of your investment back in that case, so not good.
Winning 5 of 6, you have won 83% of the games and get 50 units back, and because you invested 15 units, your payout is 2.33-1.
What if you make 3 teamers instead of 4 teamears? If you hit 6/6 of course payout is smaller, but your risk is smaller also.
As I posted earlier with 4 teamers, each individual wager is -129. With 3 teamers each straight wager is about -141, because 3 teamer pays out 4-1.
Here are three systems for you. First includes 3 tickets and 5 teams, second 6 and last 10 tickets both with 6 teams.
First
1 2 3
1 2 5
3 4 5
If you get 3 of 5, you have average 30% chance to hit 1 ticket.
If you get 4 of 5, you have average 1.2 ticket correct. (Usually only one)
Second
1 2 4
1 3 6
1 5 6
2 3 5
2 4 6
3 4 5
If you get 3 of 6, you have average 30% chance to hit 1 ticket.
If you get 4 of 6, you have average 1.2 ticket correct. (Usually only one)
If you get 5 of 6, you have 3 winning tickets.
Third
1 2 4
1 2 5
1 3 4
1 3 6
1 5 6
2 3 5
2 3 6
2 4 6
3 4 5
4 5 6
If you get 3 of 6, you have average 50% chance to hit 1 ticket.
If you get 4 of 6, you have 2 winning tickets.
If you get 5 of 6, you have 5 winning tickets.
If you think that you always get 4 correct, then First or Third system is an answer. Of course you have only 5 teams in First system, but you can throw the weakiest team away.
These systems might be good also, if you like to make normal parlays, with a book which offers true odds or reduced juice parlays.
I recommend to make only straight wagers and forget parlays, but do what you wanna do.
