~Thanks for your reply and very good luck to you my friend in NFL season~ There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."The greatest discovery of all time is that a person can change his future by merely changing his attitude."
I actually think the linesmakers usually set the line as close to the actual outcome they expect. You can see this if you grind the math yourself on expected winning margin. This doesn't seem to attract equal betting which can vary on either side. They make their money because the public loves favs typically and favs only cover ~ 50% of the time.
In other cases the linesmakers see a public team they know will get pounded as a fav and put out a line a little higher than the expected margin of victory. Sometimes they make a public team the fav when it isn't. Just my .02
In other cases the linesmakers see a public team they know will get pounded as a fav and put out a line a little higher than the expected margin of victory. Sometimes they make a public team the fav when it isn't. Just my .02
Good perspective from a seasoned gambler. Your examples of the concept of variance is correct, it's unpredictable.
In all my years of betting I've learned that when betting on the NFL, you HAVE to get the best number. That's the way to beat the bookie in the long run. I've even started betting favorites early and dogs late to try and minimize losses with potential middle opportunities.
Live betting has opened an entirely new opportunity that's completely disregarded in the OP.
In all my years of betting I've learned that when betting on the NFL, you HAVE to get the best number. That's the way to beat the bookie in the long run. I've even started betting favorites early and dogs late to try and minimize losses with potential middle opportunities.
Live betting has opened an entirely new opportunity that's completely disregarded in the OP.
