9/23/2017 (16-17, -1.48)
Purdue Boilermakers +10.5 (-110), 1 unit
Penn State Nittany Lions -12.5 (-110), 1 unit
North Carolina State Wolfpack +12.5 (-110), 1 unit
Georgia Bulldogs -4 (-110), 1 unit
Kentucky Wildcats +3 (-130), 1 unit
Colorado Buffaloes +11.5 (-110), 1 unit
Michigan State Spartans +3 (-105), 1 unit
Alabama Crimson Tide -18.5 (-110), 1 unit
Purdue Boilermakers +10.5 (-110), 1 unit
Penn State Nittany Lions -12.5 (-110), 1 unit
North Carolina State Wolfpack +12.5 (-110), 1 unit
Georgia Bulldogs -4 (-110), 1 unit
Kentucky Wildcats +3 (-130), 1 unit
Colorado Buffaloes +11.5 (-110), 1 unit
Michigan State Spartans +3 (-105), 1 unit
Alabama Crimson Tide -18.5 (-110), 1 unit
9/29/2017 (21-22, -1.93)
Illinois Fighting Illini +6 (-120), 1 unit
USC Trojans -5.5 (-110), 1 unit
Syracuse Orange +14 (-120), 1 unit
Colorado Buffaloes +7.5 (-110), 1 unit
South Carolina Gamecocks +8 (-110), 1 unit
New Mexico State Aggies +17 (-110), 1 unit
Vanderbilt Commodores +9 (-110), 2 units
Virginia Tech Hokies +7 (-110), 1 unit
Illinois Fighting Illini +6 (-120), 1 unit
USC Trojans -5.5 (-110), 1 unit
Syracuse Orange +14 (-120), 1 unit
Colorado Buffaloes +7.5 (-110), 1 unit
South Carolina Gamecocks +8 (-110), 1 unit
New Mexico State Aggies +17 (-110), 1 unit
Vanderbilt Commodores +9 (-110), 2 units
Virginia Tech Hokies +7 (-110), 1 unit
10/7/2017 (25-27, -3.53)
Utah Utes +7 (-120), 1 unit: Got lucky with this number. I rarely do this but I was looking at the numbers when they were just released and this one jumped out at me. Giving 7 to the Utes at night is tough. Doing it with an inexperienced QB is brutal. Cardinal are overvalued due to their last few performances. This should be a low scoring, close game and I'm happy to have 7 in this spot.
Cincinnati Bearcats +17 (-110), 1 unit: Potential let down spot for the Knights. They're coming off a big win over Memphis and are ranked for the first time. Facing the Bearcats at night at home is never easy and Fickell will have his players excited about this opportunity. Cincinnati is a little undervalued due to the blowout against Marshall. They had 3 crucial turnovers in that game and the stats show that game was a lot closer than the final score.
Duke Blue Devils +3 (-130), 1 unit: Too much credit is being given to the Cavaliers win at Boise State. Boise State is not the same team as a few years ago and while any road win is a good win, this one isn't as impressive as it sounds. Virginia also lost at home to Indiana a few weeks ago. The Blue Devils have a good win over Northwestern and I believe the better offense and defense.
Purdue Boilermakers -4 (-110), 2 units: It should be very emotional in West Lafayette as the Boilermakers honor former coach Joe Tiller. The Gophers were exposed last week by a mediocre Maryland offense and will face more of the same problems against Purdue. Minnesota just doesn't have the weapons to keep up in this one.
Michigan Wolverines -10 (-110), 1 unit: Starting O'Korn is an upgrade for the Wolverines who have struggled on offense. The bottom line is I don't see how the Spartans score against Michigan and you know Harbaugh will absolutely roll it up on his in-state rival in prime time on national tv if he gets the chance.
South Carolina +3 (-130), 1 unit: Not sure why the Razorbacks are favored, especially on the road. Arizona has wins over Florida A&M and NMSU. If NMSU had been able to protect the ball last week they would have had a legitimate shot at an upset. The Gamecocks are far more tested and were in the game in both of their losses. I'll take the strong defense over the strong offense at home, getting points.
TCU Horned Frogs -13.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Horned Frogs have been tested. The Mountaineers have not. TCU runs the ball well. West Virginia does not. The Horned Frogs have a strong defense. West Virginia does not. TCU has Patterson. West Virginia has Holgerson. The Horned Frogs are at home. The Mountaineers are on the road.
LSU Tigers +2 (-110), 1 unit: This line just stinks. The Tigers lost at home to Troy while the Gators come in with only one loss on the season and have won three in a row. So, why is it only 2 points? First this is definitely a "circle the wagons" game for LSU. Second, the Tigers get their best weapon in Guice back. Third, Florida has to go with Franks at QB and I expect Aranda to design a scheme where he forces him to beat them with his arm. That's going to be tough to do with his WR corps decimated by injuries and suspensions.
Texas A&M Aggies +26.5 (-110), 1 unit: What would the line on this game be if the Aggies had held on against UCLA? 7? 10? There's a ton of value here as the Crimson Tide have decimated their last few opponents. It's a night game in College Station so you know the atmosphere will be crazy. A&M isn't winning this game but this number provides a lot of value and leaves the backdoor open all night.
Florida State Seminoles +3 (-110), 1 unit: The Hurricanes simply haven't faced a tough battle yet and regardless of what the Seminole offense is doing, their defense is very, very tough. Florida State's QB and offense are going to struggle but the Miami defense isn't exactly a shut down unit. The Seminoles can't meet their pre-season goals but there are a lot of guys in this game who grew up playing with and against each other in high school and even earlier. It won't salvage their season but a win over the Canes and a chance to spoil their undefeated record will mean a lot to FSU and I expect their motivation level to be extremely high for this game.
Utah Utes +7 (-120), 1 unit: Got lucky with this number. I rarely do this but I was looking at the numbers when they were just released and this one jumped out at me. Giving 7 to the Utes at night is tough. Doing it with an inexperienced QB is brutal. Cardinal are overvalued due to their last few performances. This should be a low scoring, close game and I'm happy to have 7 in this spot.
Cincinnati Bearcats +17 (-110), 1 unit: Potential let down spot for the Knights. They're coming off a big win over Memphis and are ranked for the first time. Facing the Bearcats at night at home is never easy and Fickell will have his players excited about this opportunity. Cincinnati is a little undervalued due to the blowout against Marshall. They had 3 crucial turnovers in that game and the stats show that game was a lot closer than the final score.
Duke Blue Devils +3 (-130), 1 unit: Too much credit is being given to the Cavaliers win at Boise State. Boise State is not the same team as a few years ago and while any road win is a good win, this one isn't as impressive as it sounds. Virginia also lost at home to Indiana a few weeks ago. The Blue Devils have a good win over Northwestern and I believe the better offense and defense.
Purdue Boilermakers -4 (-110), 2 units: It should be very emotional in West Lafayette as the Boilermakers honor former coach Joe Tiller. The Gophers were exposed last week by a mediocre Maryland offense and will face more of the same problems against Purdue. Minnesota just doesn't have the weapons to keep up in this one.
Michigan Wolverines -10 (-110), 1 unit: Starting O'Korn is an upgrade for the Wolverines who have struggled on offense. The bottom line is I don't see how the Spartans score against Michigan and you know Harbaugh will absolutely roll it up on his in-state rival in prime time on national tv if he gets the chance.
South Carolina +3 (-130), 1 unit: Not sure why the Razorbacks are favored, especially on the road. Arizona has wins over Florida A&M and NMSU. If NMSU had been able to protect the ball last week they would have had a legitimate shot at an upset. The Gamecocks are far more tested and were in the game in both of their losses. I'll take the strong defense over the strong offense at home, getting points.
TCU Horned Frogs -13.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Horned Frogs have been tested. The Mountaineers have not. TCU runs the ball well. West Virginia does not. The Horned Frogs have a strong defense. West Virginia does not. TCU has Patterson. West Virginia has Holgerson. The Horned Frogs are at home. The Mountaineers are on the road.
LSU Tigers +2 (-110), 1 unit: This line just stinks. The Tigers lost at home to Troy while the Gators come in with only one loss on the season and have won three in a row. So, why is it only 2 points? First this is definitely a "circle the wagons" game for LSU. Second, the Tigers get their best weapon in Guice back. Third, Florida has to go with Franks at QB and I expect Aranda to design a scheme where he forces him to beat them with his arm. That's going to be tough to do with his WR corps decimated by injuries and suspensions.
Texas A&M Aggies +26.5 (-110), 1 unit: What would the line on this game be if the Aggies had held on against UCLA? 7? 10? There's a ton of value here as the Crimson Tide have decimated their last few opponents. It's a night game in College Station so you know the atmosphere will be crazy. A&M isn't winning this game but this number provides a lot of value and leaves the backdoor open all night.
Florida State Seminoles +3 (-110), 1 unit: The Hurricanes simply haven't faced a tough battle yet and regardless of what the Seminole offense is doing, their defense is very, very tough. Florida State's QB and offense are going to struggle but the Miami defense isn't exactly a shut down unit. The Seminoles can't meet their pre-season goals but there are a lot of guys in this game who grew up playing with and against each other in high school and even earlier. It won't salvage their season but a win over the Canes and a chance to spoil their undefeated record will mean a lot to FSU and I expect their motivation level to be extremely high for this game.
10/14/2017 (30-31, -2.13)
Oklahoma Sooners -7 (-115), 1 unit: Every so often I take a look at early lines and grab anything that jumps out at me. This one did just that. The Longhorns are improving but the talent gap between the two is still huge. Sooners are down with their loss but every goal they set at the beginning of the season is still within their control. I think Riley convinces them of that and the necessity of making a statement in a big game and they get it done in Dallas.
Texas A&M Aggies +3 (-115), 2 units: This number makes no sense to me. Again, I think too much is being placed on the blown lead at UCLA. THe Aggies played Bama tougher than anyone this year and are starting to hit on all cylinders. The Gators just don't have the weapons to stay with A&M and I'll gladly grab the FG with the better team.
Northwestern Wildcats -3 (-110), 1 units: No idea why I continue to believe in the Wildcats, yet here we are. They have NFL talent on offense. Their big weakness is their secondary. I don't think the Terrapins 11th string QB can exploit that matchup. Road wins are tough to come by but I expect Northwestern to get it done in a half full, disinterested Byrd Stadium.
West Virginia Mountaineers -3 (-130), 2 units: There are few teams I like playing on less than the Mountaineers. However, this one cannot be avoided. The Red Raiders made their name on playing Oklahoma State close. Last I checked, Oklahoma State just turned the ball over again in the red zone. I misread last week's WVU game badly. They can play defense, they can control the clock and those things will lead them to a win at home.
Indiana Hoosiers +7 (-105), 1 unit: I'm not sure the Wolverines and that offense deserve to be favored by 7 on the road against anyone. I'm especially sure of that when you consider they faced MSU last week and have PSU next week. The Hoosiers D is porous but I just don't think Michigan has the weapons to take advantage of that weakness. Look for the rotating QBs of Indiana to do just enough to keep them in the game the whole way.
Vanderbilt Commodores +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Here's another team I continue to believe in for no good reason. They do have the better defense and at some point Webb has to have one of those 25 carries for 250 yards and three scores games. Right?
Minnesota Golden Gophers +4 (-110), 1 unit: Welcome to the stinky line of the week. Shouldn't this be more like 7 or 8? Exactly. The Spartans aren't consistent enough yet to beat Michigan and then come back and win on the road. Look for Coach Boat Rower to have his Gophers treating this like the National Championship. They can run downhill against MSU and should be in this one all night.
Arizona State Sun Devils +17.5 (-110), 1 unit: Records in this one are a little deceptive as the Sun Devils have played a tough schedule while the Huskies well....have played their normal slate of foes. Tough road environment for Washington and do you really want to be laying more than 2 TDs in a Pac12 After Dark game?
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7 (-120), 1 unit: Canes coming off an emotional win over their biggest rivals. Now they're coming home to face a team that is going to grind it out with the triple option and take your legs out all day long. Plus...wouldn't it be so like Mark Richt to take a big dump in a game like this?
Oklahoma Sooners -7 (-115), 1 unit: Every so often I take a look at early lines and grab anything that jumps out at me. This one did just that. The Longhorns are improving but the talent gap between the two is still huge. Sooners are down with their loss but every goal they set at the beginning of the season is still within their control. I think Riley convinces them of that and the necessity of making a statement in a big game and they get it done in Dallas.
Texas A&M Aggies +3 (-115), 2 units: This number makes no sense to me. Again, I think too much is being placed on the blown lead at UCLA. THe Aggies played Bama tougher than anyone this year and are starting to hit on all cylinders. The Gators just don't have the weapons to stay with A&M and I'll gladly grab the FG with the better team.
Northwestern Wildcats -3 (-110), 1 units: No idea why I continue to believe in the Wildcats, yet here we are. They have NFL talent on offense. Their big weakness is their secondary. I don't think the Terrapins 11th string QB can exploit that matchup. Road wins are tough to come by but I expect Northwestern to get it done in a half full, disinterested Byrd Stadium.
West Virginia Mountaineers -3 (-130), 2 units: There are few teams I like playing on less than the Mountaineers. However, this one cannot be avoided. The Red Raiders made their name on playing Oklahoma State close. Last I checked, Oklahoma State just turned the ball over again in the red zone. I misread last week's WVU game badly. They can play defense, they can control the clock and those things will lead them to a win at home.
Indiana Hoosiers +7 (-105), 1 unit: I'm not sure the Wolverines and that offense deserve to be favored by 7 on the road against anyone. I'm especially sure of that when you consider they faced MSU last week and have PSU next week. The Hoosiers D is porous but I just don't think Michigan has the weapons to take advantage of that weakness. Look for the rotating QBs of Indiana to do just enough to keep them in the game the whole way.
Vanderbilt Commodores +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Here's another team I continue to believe in for no good reason. They do have the better defense and at some point Webb has to have one of those 25 carries for 250 yards and three scores games. Right?
Minnesota Golden Gophers +4 (-110), 1 unit: Welcome to the stinky line of the week. Shouldn't this be more like 7 or 8? Exactly. The Spartans aren't consistent enough yet to beat Michigan and then come back and win on the road. Look for Coach Boat Rower to have his Gophers treating this like the National Championship. They can run downhill against MSU and should be in this one all night.
Arizona State Sun Devils +17.5 (-110), 1 unit: Records in this one are a little deceptive as the Sun Devils have played a tough schedule while the Huskies well....have played their normal slate of foes. Tough road environment for Washington and do you really want to be laying more than 2 TDs in a Pac12 After Dark game?
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7 (-120), 1 unit: Canes coming off an emotional win over their biggest rivals. Now they're coming home to face a team that is going to grind it out with the triple option and take your legs out all day long. Plus...wouldn't it be so like Mark Richt to take a big dump in a game like this?
10/21/2017 (36-33-1, +3.62)
Wisconsin Badgers -24 (-110), 2 units: If you've been reading my drivel for awhile you know I am a Badger fan that rarely bets on my team. I also rarely if ever lay big numbers. However, this number is too low. Wisconsin has plagued itself with turnovers and if you believe those things are cyclical/freakish more so than a pattern this is a great spot for the Badgers. The Terps have one weapon at WR and I expect the Wisconsin secondary to shut him down. I don't think Wisconsin puts up a ton of points but I don't think Maryland puts up many at all.
Northwestern Wildcats -1 (-110), 1 unit: Shocking, I'm backing the Wildcats again. Too much talent on this team to only be giving one to a Hawkeye team that hasn't performed on the road. I think it clicked for Northwestern last week and I expect them to continue the momentum against Iowa.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +5 (-110), 1 unit: Just a bad spot for the Yellow Jackets. Tough, tough loss last week and they've got Clemson up next. The Demon Deacons D is very good against the run and I expect them to be in this thing the whole game.
Navy Midshipmen +7.5 (-110), 1 unit: What would the number have been if the Midshipmen won last week? 3? They turned the ball over 5 times at Memphis. This game should feature plenty of scoring and not a ton of defense. I'm happy to get more than a TD at home against a good but not tested Knights squad.
California Golden Bears +3 (-110), 1 unit: Scary to back the Bears after a huge win. However, I am a big believer in Wilcox and his ability to have his team focused for this game. The Wildcats have found some momentum but their new QB hasn't faced a test like this. Cal will force him to throw the ball and I'm not convinced he can win the game that way.
Oklahoma State Cowboys -7 (-110), 1 unit: The Longhorns have found their answer at QB and are on a great path. However their defense has given up approximately 4,780,000 passing yards the last two weeks. What happens when the best offense they've faced all year comes to town? The Cowboys are too explosive and have too many weapons for Texas to compete, especially coming off a heartbreaking loss against their most hated rival.
Florida State Seminoles -7 (-105), 1 unit: One team has a great defense. The Cardinals do not. One team has motivation after getting crushed last year. Louisville does not. I just don't see the Cardinals being motivated for this game. It's scary laying a TD with the Seminole offense but once they get a lead in this one Louisville will roll over.
Ole Miss Rebels +7 (-110), 1 unit: Great sell high spot on the Tigers. They've allegedly resurrected their season the last two weeks with wins over Florida and Auburn. However, do you really trust them laying a TD on the road against a very explosive offense? The Rebels are very motivated after Coach O's comments and are undervalued with three losses (all on the road, two against very tough teams and one in a Pac12 after dark setting).
Arizona State Sun Devils +10 (-110), 1 unit: Another scary spot with the Sun Devils coming off a huge win. Take a look at the Utes results. Have they done anything to justify being double digit favorites against anyone? Arizona State is underrated due to their brutal schedule. I don't know that they win the game but they should be in it the entire way, especially with the QB questions for Utah.
Wisconsin Badgers -24 (-110), 2 units: If you've been reading my drivel for awhile you know I am a Badger fan that rarely bets on my team. I also rarely if ever lay big numbers. However, this number is too low. Wisconsin has plagued itself with turnovers and if you believe those things are cyclical/freakish more so than a pattern this is a great spot for the Badgers. The Terps have one weapon at WR and I expect the Wisconsin secondary to shut him down. I don't think Wisconsin puts up a ton of points but I don't think Maryland puts up many at all.
Northwestern Wildcats -1 (-110), 1 unit: Shocking, I'm backing the Wildcats again. Too much talent on this team to only be giving one to a Hawkeye team that hasn't performed on the road. I think it clicked for Northwestern last week and I expect them to continue the momentum against Iowa.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +5 (-110), 1 unit: Just a bad spot for the Yellow Jackets. Tough, tough loss last week and they've got Clemson up next. The Demon Deacons D is very good against the run and I expect them to be in this thing the whole game.
Navy Midshipmen +7.5 (-110), 1 unit: What would the number have been if the Midshipmen won last week? 3? They turned the ball over 5 times at Memphis. This game should feature plenty of scoring and not a ton of defense. I'm happy to get more than a TD at home against a good but not tested Knights squad.
California Golden Bears +3 (-110), 1 unit: Scary to back the Bears after a huge win. However, I am a big believer in Wilcox and his ability to have his team focused for this game. The Wildcats have found some momentum but their new QB hasn't faced a test like this. Cal will force him to throw the ball and I'm not convinced he can win the game that way.
Oklahoma State Cowboys -7 (-110), 1 unit: The Longhorns have found their answer at QB and are on a great path. However their defense has given up approximately 4,780,000 passing yards the last two weeks. What happens when the best offense they've faced all year comes to town? The Cowboys are too explosive and have too many weapons for Texas to compete, especially coming off a heartbreaking loss against their most hated rival.
Florida State Seminoles -7 (-105), 1 unit: One team has a great defense. The Cardinals do not. One team has motivation after getting crushed last year. Louisville does not. I just don't see the Cardinals being motivated for this game. It's scary laying a TD with the Seminole offense but once they get a lead in this one Louisville will roll over.
Ole Miss Rebels +7 (-110), 1 unit: Great sell high spot on the Tigers. They've allegedly resurrected their season the last two weeks with wins over Florida and Auburn. However, do you really trust them laying a TD on the road against a very explosive offense? The Rebels are very motivated after Coach O's comments and are undervalued with three losses (all on the road, two against very tough teams and one in a Pac12 after dark setting).
Arizona State Sun Devils +10 (-110), 1 unit: Another scary spot with the Sun Devils coming off a huge win. Take a look at the Utes results. Have they done anything to justify being double digit favorites against anyone? Arizona State is underrated due to their brutal schedule. I don't know that they win the game but they should be in it the entire way, especially with the QB questions for Utah.
10/28/2017 (41-38-1, +4.17)
Clemson Tigers +14 (-110), 1 unit: Just a feeling that we see the same thing from the Tigers we did last year. An inexplicable loss and then a renewed focus. Venables D has always done well against the option and with an extra week to prepare and the game in Death Valley at night I'll take Clemson to shut down the Yellow Jackets.
Iowa Hawkeyes -7 (-110), 1 unit: Hawkeyes at home good. Iowa at home at night very good. Gophers are just plain bad everywhere. They just don't have the athletes and playmakers to move the ball against a stingy Hawkeye D. I think Iowa's offense can generate enough points to cover the number and keep them in the race for the B10 West (kind of).
Arizona State Sun Devils +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: If there was going to be a letdown we would have seen it last week from the Sun Devils. The number in this game is based on name recognition only. The Trojans are beaten up and I sincerely question their motivation the rest of the way. Arizona State has played USC tough in recent years and I expect this to be no different.
North Carolina State Wolfpack +7 (-110), 1 unit: The formula for beating the Irish is to not turn the ball over, stop the run and make Wimbush beat them through the air. The Wolfpack have one of the best D lines in the country and they protect the football very well. If NC State hadn't fallen apart in their opener the line on this one would be 3. That's a lot of value.
Northwestern Wildcats +3 (-125), 1 unit: No way. I'm on the Wildcats again. They're slowly coming into form and have looked relatively strong the last two weeks. The Spartans have an excellent defense. Their offense on the other hand, not so much. I don't think they've shown enough that they should be a road favorite after struggling with Indiana at home and at Minnesota.
Iowa State Cyclones +7 (-120), 1 unit: Who would have thought the road to the B12 title goes through Ames? The Horned Frogs are fantastic and have been so all year. On the other hand we've got the Cyclones playing their first game as a ranked team in a long, long time. Mismatch, right? Not sure about that. TCU likes to spread teams out and run the ball. Iowa State has a very good run defense. Look for them to shorten the clock, protect the ball and stay in this one all afternoon with a chance to win at the end.
Penn State Nittany Lions +7 (-115), 1 unit: Two things I hate: 1. Siding with an the public an an underdog. 2. Playing against Urban Meyer off a bye week. However, I can't avoid it. The Buckeyes resurgence is being vastly overblown. They've run up the score against 3-4 teams that stink. The Nittany Lions are very balanced and have weapons all over the field. I don't know if they win in the Horseshoe but I think they keep it within a TD.
Texas A&M Aggies +3 (-130), 1 unit: Might as well just copy and paste the same thing every week. Aggies are still undervalued due to the UCLA collapse. Getting a FG at home coming off a bye with two very evenly matched teams is something I cannot pass up.
Clemson Tigers +14 (-110), 1 unit: Just a feeling that we see the same thing from the Tigers we did last year. An inexplicable loss and then a renewed focus. Venables D has always done well against the option and with an extra week to prepare and the game in Death Valley at night I'll take Clemson to shut down the Yellow Jackets.
Iowa Hawkeyes -7 (-110), 1 unit: Hawkeyes at home good. Iowa at home at night very good. Gophers are just plain bad everywhere. They just don't have the athletes and playmakers to move the ball against a stingy Hawkeye D. I think Iowa's offense can generate enough points to cover the number and keep them in the race for the B10 West (kind of).
Arizona State Sun Devils +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: If there was going to be a letdown we would have seen it last week from the Sun Devils. The number in this game is based on name recognition only. The Trojans are beaten up and I sincerely question their motivation the rest of the way. Arizona State has played USC tough in recent years and I expect this to be no different.
North Carolina State Wolfpack +7 (-110), 1 unit: The formula for beating the Irish is to not turn the ball over, stop the run and make Wimbush beat them through the air. The Wolfpack have one of the best D lines in the country and they protect the football very well. If NC State hadn't fallen apart in their opener the line on this one would be 3. That's a lot of value.
Northwestern Wildcats +3 (-125), 1 unit: No way. I'm on the Wildcats again. They're slowly coming into form and have looked relatively strong the last two weeks. The Spartans have an excellent defense. Their offense on the other hand, not so much. I don't think they've shown enough that they should be a road favorite after struggling with Indiana at home and at Minnesota.
Iowa State Cyclones +7 (-120), 1 unit: Who would have thought the road to the B12 title goes through Ames? The Horned Frogs are fantastic and have been so all year. On the other hand we've got the Cyclones playing their first game as a ranked team in a long, long time. Mismatch, right? Not sure about that. TCU likes to spread teams out and run the ball. Iowa State has a very good run defense. Look for them to shorten the clock, protect the ball and stay in this one all afternoon with a chance to win at the end.
Penn State Nittany Lions +7 (-115), 1 unit: Two things I hate: 1. Siding with an the public an an underdog. 2. Playing against Urban Meyer off a bye week. However, I can't avoid it. The Buckeyes resurgence is being vastly overblown. They've run up the score against 3-4 teams that stink. The Nittany Lions are very balanced and have weapons all over the field. I don't know if they win in the Horseshoe but I think they keep it within a TD.
Texas A&M Aggies +3 (-130), 1 unit: Might as well just copy and paste the same thing every week. Aggies are still undervalued due to the UCLA collapse. Getting a FG at home coming off a bye with two very evenly matched teams is something I cannot pass up.
11/4/2017 (44-41-3, +3.67)
Oklahoma State Cowboys -2.5 (-110), 2 units: Obviously misread the market as I jumped on it at this number. I still like the play. A few things at work here. First, while both teams can score I give a slight edge to the Cowboys on D. Also it's not often I give Mike Gundy the edge over a coach but due to Riley's inexperience I'll give it to him here. Finally, the obvious, home field. Sooners are getting a boost for their win over Ohio State after Ohio State beat Penn State last week so the number is a little reduced. Bedlam is always fun. This year I think it's more fun for Oklahoma State.
North Carolina State Wolfpack +7 (-105), 1 unit: Some value here on the home team after their national tv beating last week. Before the bizzare Pick Six, that game was close but after that missed/no/who knows call, the Wolfpack went into a death spiral. NC State played the Tigers close last year and most of the same players are back for both teams. Clemson will find a way to win but in what I expect to be a low scoring game I'll gladly grab a TD with the home team.
Northwestern Wildcats -1 (-110), 1 unit: This number crossed over in the span of about 2 minutes. Someone knows something. For me the Wildcats are like the Seattle Seahawks. Every year they start slow, then they hit their stride in the middle of the year, then lose an unexpected game late in the year. If the Cornhuskers lost last week at Purdue this number would have been dramatically different. Don't be fooled into thinking Tanner Lee and Nebraska have fixed all their problems.
Miami Hurricanes +1 (-110), 1 unit: The entire world is on the Hokies. Why? They beat West Virginia early in the year. Other than that what have they done? The Hurricanes keep squeaking by teams but the key is they are winning. If for some reason Rosier is not playing I'll get out of this one but when 80+ percent is on a road favorite it's almost a knee jerk reaction to take the other side.
Virginia Cavaliers +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Missed the best number by a lot but this is still a good spot for the Cavaliers. First, this is a sandwich game for the Yellow Jackets having just played Clemson and with Virginia Tech on deck. Second, Bronco Mendenhall knows how to defend the option from seeing it in his days at BYU. If this was double digits it would be a 2x play but as I said I missed the best number.
Arizona State Sun Devils -3 (-130), 1 unit: The Sun Devils collapsed last week but I think they rebound here. They still have several of their preseason goals within reach and have played a much tougher schedule than the Buffaloes. Also, as usual Colorado is a different team on the road versus at home and I expect the mid day heat and the crowd to catch up with them.
South Carolina Gamecocks +23.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is simply a play against the Bulldogs. First they came out #1 in the playoff rankings. Second, they beat rival Florida last week and have Auburn up next week. Getting over 3 TDs is enough to make me take a shot with the Gamecocks.
USC Trojans -7 (-120), 1 unit: Wow did I misread the Trojans last week. I figured they would throw in the towel on the season and no-show in Tempe. Nope. They can still win the PAC 12 and they're playing as if that is a goal. They have enough athletes to control the clock on offense and keep the Wildcats off the field. They also have enough talent to force Arizona into throwing the ball. The Wildcats have been a nice story this year but I think it ends this week in the Coliseum.
Oklahoma State Cowboys -2.5 (-110), 2 units: Obviously misread the market as I jumped on it at this number. I still like the play. A few things at work here. First, while both teams can score I give a slight edge to the Cowboys on D. Also it's not often I give Mike Gundy the edge over a coach but due to Riley's inexperience I'll give it to him here. Finally, the obvious, home field. Sooners are getting a boost for their win over Ohio State after Ohio State beat Penn State last week so the number is a little reduced. Bedlam is always fun. This year I think it's more fun for Oklahoma State.
North Carolina State Wolfpack +7 (-105), 1 unit: Some value here on the home team after their national tv beating last week. Before the bizzare Pick Six, that game was close but after that missed/no/who knows call, the Wolfpack went into a death spiral. NC State played the Tigers close last year and most of the same players are back for both teams. Clemson will find a way to win but in what I expect to be a low scoring game I'll gladly grab a TD with the home team.
Northwestern Wildcats -1 (-110), 1 unit: This number crossed over in the span of about 2 minutes. Someone knows something. For me the Wildcats are like the Seattle Seahawks. Every year they start slow, then they hit their stride in the middle of the year, then lose an unexpected game late in the year. If the Cornhuskers lost last week at Purdue this number would have been dramatically different. Don't be fooled into thinking Tanner Lee and Nebraska have fixed all their problems.
Miami Hurricanes +1 (-110), 1 unit: The entire world is on the Hokies. Why? They beat West Virginia early in the year. Other than that what have they done? The Hurricanes keep squeaking by teams but the key is they are winning. If for some reason Rosier is not playing I'll get out of this one but when 80+ percent is on a road favorite it's almost a knee jerk reaction to take the other side.
Virginia Cavaliers +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Missed the best number by a lot but this is still a good spot for the Cavaliers. First, this is a sandwich game for the Yellow Jackets having just played Clemson and with Virginia Tech on deck. Second, Bronco Mendenhall knows how to defend the option from seeing it in his days at BYU. If this was double digits it would be a 2x play but as I said I missed the best number.
Arizona State Sun Devils -3 (-130), 1 unit: The Sun Devils collapsed last week but I think they rebound here. They still have several of their preseason goals within reach and have played a much tougher schedule than the Buffaloes. Also, as usual Colorado is a different team on the road versus at home and I expect the mid day heat and the crowd to catch up with them.
South Carolina Gamecocks +23.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is simply a play against the Bulldogs. First they came out #1 in the playoff rankings. Second, they beat rival Florida last week and have Auburn up next week. Getting over 3 TDs is enough to make me take a shot with the Gamecocks.
USC Trojans -7 (-120), 1 unit: Wow did I misread the Trojans last week. I figured they would throw in the towel on the season and no-show in Tempe. Nope. They can still win the PAC 12 and they're playing as if that is a goal. They have enough athletes to control the clock on offense and keep the Wildcats off the field. They also have enough talent to force Arizona into throwing the ball. The Wildcats have been a nice story this year but I think it ends this week in the Coliseum.
11/11/2017 (50-42-4, +7.37)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3 (-110), 1 unit: I said last week I'm not impressed with the Hokies and nothing I saw against Miami changed that. They had everything in front of them including an outside shot at the playoffs and now they have not a lot to play for and have to go to Atlanta to play an early game against the triple option. The Yellow Jackets are still in need of two wins to become bowl eligible and their last game is against Georgia. I think we get max effort from one team and very little from the other. Combine that with a home dog and I'll take it.
Boston College Eagles +3 (-115), 1 unit: After two huge games with disappointing results I just can't imagine the Wolfpack have a lot left in the tank. The Eagles have been playing much better lately and really dominated Florida State and Virginia and managed to find a way to win at Louisville. Another early kickoff with an unmotivated team against a rising team getting points at home. Once again, I'll take it.
Iowa State Cyclones +7 (-120), 1 unit: The Cyclones might be the biggest surprise in the country this year and they have been very, very tough at home. They still have a chance to get to the Big 12 Championship game and a win here would help them tremendously. They've shown success against prolific offenses by dropping 8 into coverage and I think that continues against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State was desperate to get a win in the Bedlam game and come up short. I know he threw for 5,000,000 yards last week but something about Rudolph just seems off. Combine those factors with a porous defense, cold weather and an early kick and I will gladly grab the home team getting a TD.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3 (-110), 2 units: So glad that the Hurricanes won last week so I could grab the Fighting Irish here. Miami has been squeaking by teams all year and are getting way too much credit for beating an overrated Virginia Tech team. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has been dominating everyone by simply running the ball down their throats. Looking at the Hurricanes D I can't see them stopping the Fighting Irish unless they can generate a lot of turnovers. Also, I get to go against Mark Richt in a big game and I can't pass that up.
Northwestern Wildcats -4 (-120), 2 units: This is the game where about halfway through the first quarter I am kicking myself for missing the trap. This one seems way too easy but I can't pass it up. The Wildcats are rolling right now and while they have been OT wins, etc...they are finding ways to win games. On the other side of the field the Boilermakers have really struggled before finally getting a W last week against an awful Illinois team. However, in that game they lost part of their QB platoon which is going to make Northwestern's job a little easier. It's going to be cold, it's going to be windy and it's going to be loud at Ryan Field. This one has sucker play written all over it and....I am clearly a sucker.
Auburn Tigers +2 (-110), 1 unit: Let me be very clear, I am a huge fan of this Bulldog team and I think they still may win it all. However, in this spot I'm going to back the Tigers for a few reasons. First, I know Fromm went on the road and won at Notre Dame but I don't know that he really had time to realize what he was getting into and the magnitude of the game. Now he has to go on the road as the QB of the #1 team in the country against a defense that can force mistakes and I think he makes a few. Second, Auburn is a little more battle tested having played at Clemson and having an experienced QB (even if he is a transfer). Third, the Tigers could have packed it in after their collapse at LSU but instead dominated two bad teams on the road leaving no doubt they are still a motivated team. I'm looking for the experienced QB and the home crowd to keep Auburn in the game the whole time.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3 (-110), 1 unit: I said last week I'm not impressed with the Hokies and nothing I saw against Miami changed that. They had everything in front of them including an outside shot at the playoffs and now they have not a lot to play for and have to go to Atlanta to play an early game against the triple option. The Yellow Jackets are still in need of two wins to become bowl eligible and their last game is against Georgia. I think we get max effort from one team and very little from the other. Combine that with a home dog and I'll take it.
Boston College Eagles +3 (-115), 1 unit: After two huge games with disappointing results I just can't imagine the Wolfpack have a lot left in the tank. The Eagles have been playing much better lately and really dominated Florida State and Virginia and managed to find a way to win at Louisville. Another early kickoff with an unmotivated team against a rising team getting points at home. Once again, I'll take it.
Iowa State Cyclones +7 (-120), 1 unit: The Cyclones might be the biggest surprise in the country this year and they have been very, very tough at home. They still have a chance to get to the Big 12 Championship game and a win here would help them tremendously. They've shown success against prolific offenses by dropping 8 into coverage and I think that continues against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State was desperate to get a win in the Bedlam game and come up short. I know he threw for 5,000,000 yards last week but something about Rudolph just seems off. Combine those factors with a porous defense, cold weather and an early kick and I will gladly grab the home team getting a TD.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3 (-110), 2 units: So glad that the Hurricanes won last week so I could grab the Fighting Irish here. Miami has been squeaking by teams all year and are getting way too much credit for beating an overrated Virginia Tech team. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has been dominating everyone by simply running the ball down their throats. Looking at the Hurricanes D I can't see them stopping the Fighting Irish unless they can generate a lot of turnovers. Also, I get to go against Mark Richt in a big game and I can't pass that up.
Northwestern Wildcats -4 (-120), 2 units: This is the game where about halfway through the first quarter I am kicking myself for missing the trap. This one seems way too easy but I can't pass it up. The Wildcats are rolling right now and while they have been OT wins, etc...they are finding ways to win games. On the other side of the field the Boilermakers have really struggled before finally getting a W last week against an awful Illinois team. However, in that game they lost part of their QB platoon which is going to make Northwestern's job a little easier. It's going to be cold, it's going to be windy and it's going to be loud at Ryan Field. This one has sucker play written all over it and....I am clearly a sucker.
Auburn Tigers +2 (-110), 1 unit: Let me be very clear, I am a huge fan of this Bulldog team and I think they still may win it all. However, in this spot I'm going to back the Tigers for a few reasons. First, I know Fromm went on the road and won at Notre Dame but I don't know that he really had time to realize what he was getting into and the magnitude of the game. Now he has to go on the road as the QB of the #1 team in the country against a defense that can force mistakes and I think he makes a few. Second, Auburn is a little more battle tested having played at Clemson and having an experienced QB (even if he is a transfer). Third, the Tigers could have packed it in after their collapse at LSU but instead dominated two bad teams on the road leaving no doubt they are still a motivated team. I'm looking for the experienced QB and the home crowd to keep Auburn in the game the whole time.
11/18/2017 (53-43-6 +9.17)
Temple Owls +14 (-120), 1 unit: Situational play here. The Knights have a huge game on tap with USF next week and the pressure of an unblemished record and a possible spot in a massive bowl game. The Owls have been on a steady upswing and still have a chance to get bowl eligible. An early kickoff, a warm weather team coming north and getting two scores, I'll take the home team to keep it close.
Northwestern Wildcats -7 (-110), 1 unit: The Wildcats are doing their traditional improvement throughout October and November. The Gophers are a different team on the road and not in a good way. I look for Northwestern to move the ball well and to make just enough stops to cover the number.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +6 (-110), 1 unit: Tough spot for the Horned Frogs even though they technically control their own path to the Big 12 Championship Game. Rumors are swirling that their coach may be heading elsewhere. They lost their game of the year against Oklahoma last week and now they're starting a true freshman on the road against a Red Raiders squad that is battling to get bowl eligible. This one isn't so much a play on Texas Tech as it is against TCU.
California Golden Bears +15.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Cardinal can somehow still get to the PAC 12 Championship Game and they have to win this one to do so. I have little doubt that they get it done but I don't think they do it by more than 2 scores. The Golden Bears come in off a bye, still have a chance to get to a bowl game and will be extremely motivated for this rivalry game. Stanford hasn't shown enough to be favored by this much especially against a defensive mind like Wilcox. Remember what he did to Coach Pirate, making them one dimensional. Expect him to take away Bryce Love and make the Cardinal beat him through the air. If Cal can do that I like their chances.
Temple Owls +14 (-120), 1 unit: Situational play here. The Knights have a huge game on tap with USF next week and the pressure of an unblemished record and a possible spot in a massive bowl game. The Owls have been on a steady upswing and still have a chance to get bowl eligible. An early kickoff, a warm weather team coming north and getting two scores, I'll take the home team to keep it close.
Northwestern Wildcats -7 (-110), 1 unit: The Wildcats are doing their traditional improvement throughout October and November. The Gophers are a different team on the road and not in a good way. I look for Northwestern to move the ball well and to make just enough stops to cover the number.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +6 (-110), 1 unit: Tough spot for the Horned Frogs even though they technically control their own path to the Big 12 Championship Game. Rumors are swirling that their coach may be heading elsewhere. They lost their game of the year against Oklahoma last week and now they're starting a true freshman on the road against a Red Raiders squad that is battling to get bowl eligible. This one isn't so much a play on Texas Tech as it is against TCU.
California Golden Bears +15.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Cardinal can somehow still get to the PAC 12 Championship Game and they have to win this one to do so. I have little doubt that they get it done but I don't think they do it by more than 2 scores. The Golden Bears come in off a bye, still have a chance to get to a bowl game and will be extremely motivated for this rivalry game. Stanford hasn't shown enough to be favored by this much especially against a defensive mind like Wilcox. Remember what he did to Coach Pirate, making them one dimensional. Expect him to take away Bryce Love and make the Cardinal beat him through the air. If Cal can do that I like their chances.
11/24/2017 (55-45-6, +8.87)
Virginia Cavaliers +7 (-105), 1 unit: Ton of motivation for the Cavaliers in this one. They've lost approximately 200 in a row to their in-state rivals and now they get a chance to break the streak at home. On the other side of the ball the Hokies have really struggled since their loss to Miami. I'll gladly take the more motivated home team getting points.
South Florida Bulls +10 (-120), 1 unit: What would the number be on this game if the Bulls had not lost to Houston? There is no doubt the Knights are a very good team but Flowers is a very special player and he can put points on the board in a number of different ways. Double digits seems like too much in this rivalry game with a lot at stake.
Kentucky Wildcats +10 (-110), 1 unit: Quietly the Wildcats are having a nice year. Their loss to Ole Miss is a bit of a head scratcher but other than that they've won the games they should. The Cardinals have rebounded after their losses to NC State and BC but upon closer look, their road record just isn't good. They've beaten an awful UNC team and a depleted Florida State team. I'm not sure the Wildcats can win this one but I will again take double digits between two in-state rivals that are evenly matched.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2 (-110), 1 unit: Getting some value with the Irish after their squeaker last week against Navy. Without Love the Cardinal don't have a lot of offensive options. I'm guessing that about midway through this game they'll realize they're playing for the Pac12 Championship next week and they'll rest Love to get him healthy in a game that doesn't mean much to them.
South Carolina Gamecocks +14 (-120), 1 unit: The Gamecocks are another SEC team that is quietly having a nice year. Bentley has played well under center and he manages the game nicely. The Tigers are certainly in a look ahead spot with the ACC Championship on tap next week. Clemson is going to win this game but in a bitter rivalry game, combined with a look ahead spot I will gladly take two scores.
Auburn Tigers +4.5 (-110), 1 unit: Something seems just slightly off with the Crimson Tide this year. I hate the idea of picking against Saban in a big game but this feels like the game where all of the injuries finally catch up with Alabama. Their LB's are going to struggle to stop the Auburn run game like they did against Mississippi State and LSU. The Tigers also have a special teams advantage. This feels like a FG game either way.
Virginia Cavaliers +7 (-105), 1 unit: Ton of motivation for the Cavaliers in this one. They've lost approximately 200 in a row to their in-state rivals and now they get a chance to break the streak at home. On the other side of the ball the Hokies have really struggled since their loss to Miami. I'll gladly take the more motivated home team getting points.
South Florida Bulls +10 (-120), 1 unit: What would the number be on this game if the Bulls had not lost to Houston? There is no doubt the Knights are a very good team but Flowers is a very special player and he can put points on the board in a number of different ways. Double digits seems like too much in this rivalry game with a lot at stake.
Kentucky Wildcats +10 (-110), 1 unit: Quietly the Wildcats are having a nice year. Their loss to Ole Miss is a bit of a head scratcher but other than that they've won the games they should. The Cardinals have rebounded after their losses to NC State and BC but upon closer look, their road record just isn't good. They've beaten an awful UNC team and a depleted Florida State team. I'm not sure the Wildcats can win this one but I will again take double digits between two in-state rivals that are evenly matched.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2 (-110), 1 unit: Getting some value with the Irish after their squeaker last week against Navy. Without Love the Cardinal don't have a lot of offensive options. I'm guessing that about midway through this game they'll realize they're playing for the Pac12 Championship next week and they'll rest Love to get him healthy in a game that doesn't mean much to them.
South Carolina Gamecocks +14 (-120), 1 unit: The Gamecocks are another SEC team that is quietly having a nice year. Bentley has played well under center and he manages the game nicely. The Tigers are certainly in a look ahead spot with the ACC Championship on tap next week. Clemson is going to win this game but in a bitter rivalry game, combined with a look ahead spot I will gladly take two scores.
Auburn Tigers +4.5 (-110), 1 unit: Something seems just slightly off with the Crimson Tide this year. I hate the idea of picking against Saban in a big game but this feels like the game where all of the injuries finally catch up with Alabama. Their LB's are going to struggle to stop the Auburn run game like they did against Mississippi State and LSU. The Tigers also have a special teams advantage. This feels like a FG game either way.
