On The Hop's 2014 NCAA Postseason

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 14-9-2 +4.2
Postseason Futures -1.5
Postseason Futures Pending: NONE

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (+2), 1 unit: Really short notice for Albany to try and prepare for the pressure of Mount St. Mary's. The Mountaineers are really starting to pressure the ball well and the Great Danes struggle with pressure. Tempo will dictate and I think Mount St. Mary's enforces their desire to run and press more than Albany's desire to grind it out.
Xavier Musketeers (-3.5), 1 unit: Great matchup for Xavier. They are a tough, defensive minded team playing a virtual home game against an NC State squad who is probably really happy to be in the tournament. Wolfpack don't have enough scorers or enough of a defensive mindset to compete in this one.
Georgetown Hoyas (-4), 1 unit: It's always a question of motivation in the NIT. In reading about both teams I think Georgetown wants to compete and is excited to play in their little gym on campus for the first time in forever. Expect a rowdy atmosphere and an absence of motivation for a West Virginia squad that failed to show up last time out against Texas in a big, big game.
Georgia State Panthers and Clemson Tigers (Under 131), 1 unit: Georgia State loves to get out and run but I just can't see them being enthused about being in this game. They thought they were in the NCAAs with a very winnable game in their conference championship and they lost in OT. Clemson is going to defend as hard as possible and will struggle to score. Good combo for the under.
Utah Utes (-1), 1 unit: Utah is clearly the better team. While motivation is often a concern I think the Utes are embarassed after their disaster against Arizona. St. Mary's has had a nice year but they don't have the size to match up and the Gaels have been beaten almost every time they've stepped up in class this year.

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason: 15-13-2 +.8
Postseason Futures: -1.5
Postseason Futures Pending: NONE

Texas Southern Tigers (+3.5, -102), 1 unit: In games like this it often comes down to which player can take the game over. Texas Southern has that player in Aaric Murray. They also have a head coach with NCAA tournament experience in Mike Davis. Cal Poly had several breaks in getting to this point and their luck runs out tonight.
Iowa Hawkeyes (-1.5, -102), 1 unit: To say Iowa has struggled down the stretch is a huge understatment. Taking a closer look at their struggles it's been the Hawkeyes defense. Fortunately for them, Tennessee does not have the pure athletes to get to the basket at will. The Volunteers gave everything they had against Florida and fell just short. Can they get up for a play in game in Dayton? I doubt it.
San Francisco Dons (EVEN, -110), 1 unit: Quite simply I am playing against an LSU team that has to go across the country to a small gym against a team that has done well at home. The Tigers have not been good on the road this season and if San Francisco can contain Johnny O they will advance.

 

[OnTheHop]

Manhattan Jaspers (+17, -110), 1 unit: The Jaspers know everything there is to know about the Cardinals as the coaches are friends and several of the players know each other. Leaves the backdoor open all day, especially in a tournament setting where there will be another game in 2 days for Louisville.
Syracuse Orange (-13, -105), 1 unit: The Orange looked bad at the end of the year but a lot of that is due to teams seeing the zone for a second time. This is the Broncos first time seeing the zone and they do not shoot the ball well enough from the outside to get it done in this one.
Oregon Ducks (-5, -105), 2 units: The Ducks were one of the hottest teams in the country before they got dismantled by a UCLA team that won the Pac12 tourney. The Cougars have not had enough time to deal with the loss of their second best player and in a game that is going to go up and down the floor Oregon has too many weapons.
Arizona State Sun Devils (+2, -105), 1 unit: The Sun Devils have the best player on the court in Carson and enough size and depth inside to match up with a physical Longhorns squad. Texas has not done well away from home and their only good win at the end of the year was Baylor at home.
Wofford Terriers (+15, -105), 1 unit: The Terriers defend the perimeter well. They do not have size to shut down a big, physical team. The Wolverines rely on the jump shot and do not have a dominant post player. Look for a pro-Wisconsin crowd to get behind Wofford if this one stays close.
Cincinnati Bearcats (-3, -105), 2 units: The Bearcats are a physical team that is getting some value here due to people remembering the Crimson's upset of New Mexico last year. If Harvard had drawn a team that wants to get out and run that would have been good for them. They do not have the size and athleticism to get in a physical battle with Cincinnati.
New Mexico State Aggies (+7, -105), 1 unit: The Aggies are very familiar with the tournament and their opponent. They will not be intimidated. The Aztecs are a great defensive team but they have trouble on offense. This seems like a large number based on all of those factors.

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 15-16-2 -2.74

Adding these two for the same reason: public loves the underdog in both.

Connecticut Huskies (-5.5, -108)
St. Louis Billikens (-3.5, -106)

 

[OnTheHop]

Going to post Friday's plays now. Will update record tomorrow after all games.

George Washington Colonials (+3, -105), 1 unit: Colonials have a go to guy in Creek, good guard play and enough size. The Tigers laid a turd on their home floor in the conference tournament and don't score enough, especially away from home to get past an underrated George Washington team.
New Mexico Lobos (-3, -103), 1 unit: The Lobos quietly went about their business, handling pretty much everyone on their schedule. The Cardinal are big, tough and disciplined. The difference in this game is that New Mexico has a few more weapons and is slightly better defensively. Also, Stanford has a tendency to disappear in the tournament when you least expect it.
Wichita State (-16, -107), 2 units: The Shockers have a chip on their shoulder. The Mustangs are getting way too much credit for their game on Wednesday where they shot better than they have all season. St. Louis is very familiar to Wichita State and I think they roll in this one.
Baylor Bears (-3.5, -109), 1 unit: Bears were one of the hottest teams on the year at the end. Cornhuskers were one of the hottest teams on the year at the end. The difference? Baylor has a little too much size and is playing a home game against a team that blew a huge lead a week ago and has had nothing to do but think about it.
North Carolina Central Eagles (+8, -103): The Eagles play too well on the defensive side of the ball to be getting this many points. The Cyclones are slighty overvalued coming off a huge Big12 tournament. I think Iowa State gets the win but I think they struggle with this tough North Carolina Central squad.

 

[OnTheHop]

Mercer Bears 1st half only (+7.5, -103): The Bears are a very experienced team that has gone on the road against big schools and played well. The Blue Devils are going to feel a lot of pressure after recent first round struggles and I think Mercer can hang with them for awhile.

 

[OnTheHop]

Still need to do record and the rest of tomorrow's games. Wanted to get this in as tomorrow morning is busy.

Florida Gators (-5.5, -105), 2 units: The Gators are getting some value here as they did not dominate Albany and the Panthers anhilated Colorado. However this is a virtual home game for Florida and while the frontcourts are reasonably similar the backcourts are not. Pittsburgh cannot compete with the guard play and depth of the Gators and those are two huge factors in the tournament.

 

[OnTheHop]

Record Update with UNCC pending tonight and Florida pending tomorrow.

Postseason 23-21-3 +.97

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 23-22-3 -.06

Florida Gators (-5.5, -105), 2 units: The Gators are getting some value here as they did not dominate Albany and the Panthers anhilated Colorado. However this is a virtual home game for Florida and while the frontcourts are reasonably similar the backcourts are not. Pittsburgh cannot compete with the guard play and depth of the Gators and those are two huge factors in the tournament.
Connecticut Huskies (+3.5, -101), 1 unit: Another game with an overreaction to the first round. The Huskies came from behind and showed a lot of heart beating a good St. Joe's team. But, all the public sees is an OT game. The Wildcats blew out UW-Milwaukee but it took a late game run to get them there. UConn has the guards to match up with Villanova and has more size in the front court. The only thing holding me back on this on is the coaching matchup where Ollie still seems to be finding his way.
Michigan State Spartans (-7, -108), 2 units: Everyone loves Harvard now after they beat a good but offensively limited Cincinnati team. A week ago Michigan State was a mortal lock to win every NCAA tournament until 2019 according to every ESPN analyst. But, the Spartans "struggle" to cover against an underrated Delaware team and we get a number that is much smaller than it should be.

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 25-22-4 +2.94

Stanford Cardinal (+6, -105), 1 unit: This is a tough matchup for Kansas. Stanford has the size inside and the discipline needed to play with the Jayhawks. The loss of Embid has been evident in their struggle with Iowa State and even with Eastern Kentucky. Look for this one to be a battle throughout and for the physical Cardinal to stay in it the whole way.
Baylor Bears (+3.5, -109), 2 units: Baylor is playing better than most teams in the country right now. This is also a virtual home game for them. Creighton is more than McDermott but they don't have the size to matchup inside with the Bears.
Virginia Cavaliers (-6, -105), 2 units: Classic overreaction to the first round. The Cavaliers struggled with a mediocre Costal Carolina team. In reality it was more likely nerves and presure. Memphis was very good against a George Washington team. In reality GW was without their best player, Creek for most of the first half with an injury and the Tigers barely survived the game. Look for the Cavaliers to be their usual tough selves on defense but play with much better flow on offense.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

Mercer Bears (+8.5, -105), 1 unit
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (+9, -101), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 28-24-4 +5.88

Nothing tonight. Really liked Florida State but there are some injury issues that concern me. May play something in game.

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 28-24-4 +5.88

Belmont Bruins (+7, -109), 1 unit: Clemson can D up with anyone but offensively they are a bit of a liability. With Blossomgame out tonight they lose some of their size advantage as well. Belmont has no fear going on the road against the big boys and they are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. I'll gladly take the points with their huge offensive advantage.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (-4.5, -110), 1 unit: Southern Miss is going to trap and press and fall back into a zone. Minnesota is set up to beat that with both Hollins and Mathieu. They also have Smith who can really shoot it against the inefficient Golden Eagles zone. Look for the Golden Gophers to get out and run and get a lot of easy looks combined with a bunch of threes on their shooter friendly rims.

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 30-24-4 +7.88

Fresno State Bulldogs (-7.5, -107): Fresno State has been one of the hottest teams in the country since February. Combine that with an Old Dominion squad having one day to travel all the way across the country and I'll go with the home team.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles (Under 150.5, -101): This seems like an inflated number to me based on the Seminoles previous shootout with Georgetown. This one should feel more like their game against Florida Gulf Coast and I expect both teams to be a little tight and very defensive minded with a trip to MSG on the line.

 

[OnTheHop]

Florida Gators (-4.5, -101), 1 unit: UCLA had an impressive run through the Pac 12 tournament and handled both of their NCAA tournament opponents handily. Florida has looked dominant all year. The difference in this one is defense. The Bruins play good defense. The Gators play exceptional defense. Florida is too deep and too talented for UCLA.
San Diego State Aztecs (+7.5, -105), 1 unit: This is going to be an absolute battle between two teams that are very familiar with one another. The crowd will be split except that the fans of the team that wins the early game will be pulling for San Diego State. The Aztecs are not afraid having faced the Wildcats earlier in the year and in a game where every possession is going to be a war this is a lot of points.

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 32-26-4 +7.8

Connecticut Huskies (+1.5, -101), 2 units: A few things leading me to take Connecticut here. First, often when a team suffers a big injury like Iowa State did they survive the next game but the one after that gets them. Second, as good as the Cyclones were at home they were mediocre on the road. Make no mistake this is a home game for the Huskies and I'll grab the points in a virtual home game with two evenly matched teams.
Michigan State Spartans (-2, -105), 2 units: When the brackets were announced people could not pencil Michigan State in as champion fast enough. Then they struggle with a good Harvard team while Virginia dominates Memphis. All of that leads to a number smaller than it should be. The Spartans know how to play against this defense having faced Wisconsin 2-3 times per year every year. Michigan State has too many weapons and the Cavaliers don't have enough on offense to stay with the Spartans in this one.
Tennessee Volunteers (+3, -105), 1 unit: Tennessee is going to do everything possible to defend the three point line and make Michigan beat them from inside where the Volunteers have a big advantage. In a big, domed stadium I'll go with the team that wants to pound it inside as opposed to relying on the outside shot with unfamiliar sight lines.
Louisville Cardinals (-4, -109), 1 unit: Kentucky was impressive in their win over Wichita State and their closs loss to Florida. This is a different story. The backcourt mismatch in this one is huge. The Wildcats don't have enough to stay with Russ Smith and while they've matured greatly throughout the year they're not mature enough to stay with the Cardinals in this massive game.

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 34-27-5 +9.71

Nothing today.

 

[OnTheHop]

Postseason 34-27-5 +9.71

Michigan State Spartans (-5.5, -109), 1 unit: Still able to squeeze some value out of these numbers with Michigan State as they've had a tough road to get here against teams that are underappreciated. On the other hand Connecticut miraculously survived St. Joe's, dominated an overseeded Villanova team and beat an Iowa State team missing their best player. Spartans are still playing as well as anyone in the country and they have a huge coaching advantage with Izzo over Ollie.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!!