Ole Miss @ LSU System

[AcesandFaces]

Ole Miss is 9-1 in it's last 10 trips to BR. Ole Miss is 14-6 in their last 20 with LSU. If you go back over the last 6 games at TS, LSU is normally ranked in the Top 10. In most of the years(excluding 08), Ole Miss was a shitty football team. Two of those season Ole Miss won 2 or less SEC games. Yet, they lost games in BR over that time by 1, 3, 3, 7, and 6. The point is Ole Miss always plays well there, and I don't expect this game to be different.

The above listed is past TEAM Trends and opinion which have no bearing on this game whatsoever. I really hope no one uses this type of info to handicap games. Completely irrelevant. What I find more interesting and meaningful from the above information is this: Of the last 20 games between Ole Miss and LSU (where you state Ole Miss is 14-6 (I'm assuming ATS))....how many times was Ole Miss favored in those 20 games?

The shoe is on the other foot this time around and the target is Red White and Blue instead of Purple and Gold.

 

[olemiss33]

Ole Miss is 9-1 in it's last 10 trips to BR. Ole Miss is 14-6 in their last 20 with LSU. If you go back over the last 6 games at TS, LSU is normally ranked in the Top 10. In most of the years(excluding 08), Ole Miss was a shitty football team. Two of those season Ole Miss won 2 or less SEC games. Yet, they lost games in BR over that time by 1, 3, 3, 7, and 6. The point is Ole Miss always plays well there, and I don't expect this game to be different.

The above listed is past TEAM Trends and opinion which have no bearing on this game whatsoever. I really hope no one uses this type of info to handicap games. Completely irrelevant. What I find more interesting and meaningful from the above information is this: Of the last 20 games between Ole Miss and LSU (where you state Ole Miss is 14-6 (I'm assuming ATS))....how many times was Ole Miss favored in those 20 games?

The shoe is on the other foot this time around and the target is Red White and Blue instead of Purple and Gold.

Completely agree that the shoe is on the other foot here. Ole Miss is the target instead of the reverse. In the last 20 years Ole Miss has been a favorite in Tiger Stadium twice, and covered both.

I agree that in most cases the cover last 9 of 10 may not be relevant, but let me tell you why it is here. Again, knowing these kids personally, I know how much they love playing on the road in big games. They feed off the 100k fans cheering against them. This is a rivalry game. Many of the Ole Miss kids know how impiortant this game is, and they have friends on the other side of the ball.

I expect Miles to come out with numerous tricks up his sleeve. He can't win this game by just running the football and trying to hit a deep ball. It won't work. I expect a lot of trickery out of him(this is the same guy that ran a TE reverse against Bama a few years ago).

Im going to be honest.....I don't use trends, systems, etc. I simply cap games myself off what I've seen. Its always worked for me, and it' the only way I know how to do it. When Ive tried to use systems and such I get my brains beat in. I just tend to lean towards my first impression on a number and play that.

 

[Biz]

"
Biz, in the second scenario you say "in the last 2 or 3 games". Is that correct? Or should it be "2 OF 3 games?

As stated.

The team is on either a 2 or 3 gm ats losing streak.

 

[Biz]

Aces,
I agree with you 100% regarding systems, and your breakdown of systems vs trends was spot on.

I actually prefer systems with less filters, but am ok with more as long as they make sense. Your system, while filter heavy, is ok with me.

To answer the question.... Why up to 24 points.......the Answer would be that every situation has a point where the spread is too big. No different than any other game. For this system, history shows that anything above 24 doesn't work as well.

Looking forward to this game. My wife is out of town until Monday, just the dogs and I. Sports all weekend.....without interuption. Just got back from the market.

Great discussion.

 

[AcesandFaces]

Completely agree that the shoe is on the other foot here. Ole Miss is the target instead of the reverse. In the last 20 years Ole Miss has been a favorite in Tiger Stadium twice, and covered both.

I agree that in most cases the cover last 9 of 10 may not be relevant, but let me tell you why it is here. Again, knowing these kids personally, I know how much they love playing on the road in big games. They feed off the 100k fans cheering against them. This is a rivalry game. Many of the Ole Miss kids know how impiortant this game is, and they have friends on the other side of the ball.

I expect Miles to come out with numerous tricks up his sleeve. He can't win this game by just running the football and trying to hit a deep ball. It won't work. I expect a lot of trickery out of him(this is the same guy that ran a TE reverse against Bama a few years ago).

Im going to be honest.....I don't use trends, systems, etc. I simply cap games myself off what I've seen. Its always worked for me, and it' the only way I know how to do it. When Ive tried to use systems and such I get my brains beat in. I just tend to lean towards my first impression on a number and play that.

You do a great job at what you do in picking winners; and I know you know your team very well. It tempers my enthusiasm when I see you're unloading 15 Units on Ole Miss, but...I play this system and play it large. I wouldn't be surprised if Ole Miss wins by 3...which should work just fine for us. I have LSU +4. BOL OM33

 

[Salsantorre]

As stated.

The team is on either a 2 or 3 gm ats losing streak.

Thank you for the reply.

 

[LSUpete]

I could see taking Ole Miss -3, but I would be really nervous about doing it.....and I damn sure wouldn't make it a 15 unit play.

LSU's team is young, but they're talented and getting better and better. They've corrected some personnel assignments on defense that led to problems inn the middle and are now playing much better. Ole Miss has been such a joke for so long that they have historically benefited from LSU overlooking them...in addition to playing them the week after our annual Alabama game. Neither of those benefits is available this year.

One more thing, LSU's Defensive backfield is better than anything Bo Wallace has seen, so far (including Bama) so he isn't likely to maintain his current passing average.....and Ole Miss' offense is weighted toward passing.

 

[olemiss33]

I could see taking Ole Miss -3, but I would be really nervous about doing it.....and I damn sure wouldn't make it a 15 unit play.

LSU's team is young, but they're talented and getting better and better. They've corrected some personnel assignments on defense that led to problems inn the middle and are now playing much better. Ole Miss has been such a joke for so long that they have historically benefited from LSU overlooking them...in addition to playing them the week after our annual Alabama game. Neither of those benefits is available this year.

One more thing, LSU's Defensive backfield is better than anything Bo Wallace has seen, so far (including Bama) so he isn't likely to maintain his current passing average.....and Ole Miss' offense is weighted toward passing.

No offense to the LSU secondary, but who have they played that can throw the football? The two best teams they have played(and they got rolled by both), are run heavy teams(STate and Auburn). Both of them threw for 268 yards against LSU. So LSU didn't exactly stop them.

Outside of that, LSU has played some teams that are horrid in the passing game(FL, Wisconsin, NMSU). These teams are horrid passing the fooball. Hell, Wisconsin is deal last in the FBS, and FL is 111.

Again, I agree that LSU has a solid secondary, but I don't think they are better than Alabama's. I just don't think it's the advantage LSU fans think it is. When LSU fans say "Ole Miss hasn't seen a secondary like ours", I counter that with "LSU hasn't seen a passing game like Ole Miss".

All that said, the game is going to be won or lost in the other matchup.....LSU offense vs. Ole Miss defense. How is LSU going to score?

To your point about following up the Bama game with the Ole Miss game.....LSU hasn't played Ole Miss the week after Bama since 2006. There has always been at least one game between them. Might want to check those facts before you post something like that. It's not hard to find that it isn't true.

Where we DO agree is that it will be different territory for Ole Miss....they are the hunted, not the hunter. That's a big difference in a rivalry game, for sure. However, I just don't think it matters. That only matters for about the first 2-3 series of a game, then all that goes out the window.

 

[LSUpete]

No offense to the LSU secondary, but who have they played that can throw the football? The two best teams they have played(and they got rolled by both), are run heavy teams(STate and Auburn). Both of them threw for 268 yards against LSU. So LSU didn't exactly stop them.

Outside of that, LSU has played some teams that are horrid in the passing game(FL, Wisconsin, NMSU). These teams are horrid passing the fooball. Hell, Wisconsin is deal last in the FBS, and FL is 111.

Again, I agree that LSU has a solid secondary, but I don't think they are better than Alabama's. I just don't think it's the advantage LSU fans think it is. When LSU fans say "Ole Miss hasn't seen a secondary like ours", I counter that with "LSU hasn't seen a passing game like Ole Miss".

All that said, the game is going to be won or lost in the other matchup.....LSU offense vs. Ole Miss defense. How is LSU going to score?

To your point about following up the Bama game with the Ole Miss game.....LSU hasn't played Ole Miss the week after Bama since 2006. There has always been at least one game between them. Might want to check those facts before you post something like that. It's not hard to find that it isn't true.

Where we DO agree is that it will be different territory for Ole Miss....they are the hunted, not the hunter. That's a big difference in a rivalry game, for sure. However, I just don't think it matters. That only matters for about the first 2-3 series of a game, then all that goes out the window.

No offense to Ole Miss, but who have THEY played? Other than the Bama game, the schedule looks pretty weak. MAYBE Bo Wallace's passing numbers are inflated due to weak competition.

Seriously, LSU's defensive backfield is the best in the SEC and that is a widey held opinion from every sports analyst and coach that has seen them play.

With regard to your opinion of LSU's offense: Their strength is their offensive line and their rushing game. Their approach today will be to run right at Ole Miss' smaller play makers instead of around them. This will be affective as long as the down distance doesn't make them predictable.

I think if LSU can stay away from the lucky turnovers that Ole Miss relies on, the Tigers will be in a great position to win this game.

 

[olemiss33]

No offense to Ole Miss, but who have THEY played? Other than the Bama game, the schedule looks pretty weak. MAYBE Bo Wallace's passing numbers are inflated due to weak competition.

Seriously, LSU's defensive backfield is the best in the SEC and that is a widey held opinion from every sports analyst and coach that has seen them play.

With regard to your opinion of LSU's offense: Their strength is their offensive line and their rushing game. Their approach today will be to run right at Ole Miss' smaller play makers instead of around them. This will be affective as long as the down distance doesn't make them predictable.

I think if LSU can stay away from the lucky turnovers that Ole Miss relies on, the Tigers will be in a great position to win this game.

Stuff like this just wreaks of fandom. Lucky? How is creating turnovers "lucky"? Look at the game objectively and take off the purple glasses. Everyone here that follows me at all knows I don't play on Ole Miss with my heart.

I don't understand this theory that LSU is going to line up and run it right at Ole Miss. Bama tried that. TN tried that. It hasn't worked so far, so Im not sure why you think LSU will be successful doing it. The theory that LSU has a dominant OL is just that.......a theory. LSU ran for 126 against Wisconsin. 89 against MS State. 138 against Auburn. 195 against FL. So in the four games against competent defenses, LSU has averaged about 135/ypg on the ground. I guess Im just not seeing what has you so convinced LSU can run the football right at an Ole Miss team that's in the top 3 nationally.

As for who Ole Miss has played, that's a fair question. Outside of Bama, the answer is a bunch on average to bad football teams. But they beat Alabama, who I think most people would consider a Top 5 team nationally. A similar question would be who has LSU beat? Yes, they've played two good football teams, but they were completely run by both of them.

Again, I agree that LSU has a solid secondary. Are they the best in the conference? That's debatable. I wouldn't trade the Ole Miss secondary, which is looking like it will have two first team all americans on it. Maybe LSU is better. Maybe not. But the reality is the numbers LSU has put include 4 games against some of the worst offenses in all of FBS. Against solid competition, they have given up over 500 yards twice.

I ask you this and you continue to avoid the question. How is LSU going to score? The Ole Miss starting defense has given up two TD's in seven games this year. One to Bama and one to TAMU. How is LSU going to put the ball in the endzone? Maybe they can hit a big pass play. Maybe McGee can break a long run. Those things are certainly possible. But Ole Miss has given up three plays on defense all season of over 40 yards. I don't think you can live and die against this defense on big plays. You have to drive the football. Maybe LSU can do that, but it would be a first for both their offense and Ole Miss' defense for that to happen.

 

[SECplayer]

No offense to Ole Miss, but who have THEY played? Other than the Bama game, the schedule looks pretty weak. MAYBE Bo Wallace's passing numbers are inflated due to weak competition.

Seriously, LSU's defensive backfield is the best in the SEC and that is a widey held opinion from every sports analyst and coach that has seen them play.

With regard to your opinion of LSU's offense: Their strength is their offensive line and their rushing game. Their approach today will be to run right at Ole Miss' smaller play makers instead of around them. This will be affective as long as the down distance doesn't make them predictable.

I think if LSU can stay away from the lucky turnovers that Ole Miss relies on, the Tigers will be in a great position to win this game.

That Ole Miss defense has somehow got "lucky" and created those turnovers in 30 straight games. That must be some kind of luck.

 

[Acebb]

I think it is funny how the people assuring us this system is invalid are ole miss fans.

Anyway, that is one of the stupidest coaching decisions I have ever seen to end a game.

Nice call

 

[LSUpete]

Shouldn't have come down to that. Turnovers were the only thing that kept Ole Miss in the game. They got run over and off the field in every other measurable way tonight.

 

[AcesandFaces]

Another winner from this powerful system in College Football. Kentucky also covered +14' and/or 15...they met most if not all the criteria as well (to play against Miss State). Against Florida State might fit the bill at Louisville later this week as well.

Strong stuff.

 

[candylicker]

thxs for sharing. and great job.....always look for ur posts.....thx again

 

[SECplayer]

I think it is funny how the people assuring us this system is invalid are ole miss fans.

Anyway, that is one of the stupidest coaching decisions I have ever seen to end a game.

Nice call

I never tried to assure the system was wrong. I questioned it and Aces and Faces responded with why the filters and the number of filters were pertinent. It was a good conversation. I don't necessarily share his opinion but respect it. Good cover for him though.

 

[rolltide]

Against Florida State might fit the bill at Louisville later this week as well.

Strong stuff.

FSU didn't cover by 7+ last game so wouldn't be a fit. i will have a midweek rested unbeaten system against them though (if i remember correctly)

 

[AcesandFaces]

FSU didn't cover by 7+ last game so wouldn't be a fit. i will have a midweek rested unbeaten system against them though (if i remember correctly)

You are correct. FSU not a possible fit.

 

[rolltide]

well i was expecting fsu to be dd fav but they won't fit my system at -6 either....had to be -9.5 or higher.

 

[AcesandFaces]

well i was expecting fsu to be dd fav but they won't fit my system at -6 either....had to be -9.5 or higher.

No problem RT; thank you for checking. Seems some "play against" Ole Miss systems in effect this Saturday.
Thanks again..
A&F