Hello Ted..
I loved your write up and just wanted to say THANKS for taking the time to write such an extentive and pretty much right on analysis, however, with regard to the above statement I would like to add a few things.
You are entirely correct of course about Pittsburgh nearly being bounced from the playoffs by the Jets, however, Pittsburgh did in fact live to fight another day which in my opinion might just make them this years "Team of Destiny".
Every year there appears to be a team that simply defies the odds and comes out of nowhere, last season Green Bay entered the playoffs with a 10-6 record and after being very lucky to get by Seattle 33-27 in the Wildcard round looked to possibly be this team, however, we found out when McNabb completed a desperation pass on a 4th and 26 and brought Philly back to win 20-17 that GB in fact was not this "Team of Destiny" to make the Super Bowl.
Last years NFC team of Destiny turned out to be the 11-5 Carolina Panthers who had won 10 of 11 games by seven points or less, after disposing of Dallas in the Wildcard round the Panthers traveled to St Louis and defeated the lambs 29-23 in overtime as 7 point dogs.
Because Philly was playing at home and was also playing in their 3rd straight NFC Championship game the pundits in the media hammered the point home that this was the Eagles year to make it to the big game, the public agreed and wagered mostly on the Eagles who closed as 4 point favorites over Carolina.
The public ignored the fact that the Eagles had lost RB Brian Westbrook to injury and also ignored the fact that the Panthers had the much better defense, the end result was a 14-3 upset win for the Panthers which sent the Cinderella Carolina Panthers to the SB even tho' the same Panthers had been a 7-9 team the year prior.
We all know what happened next as the Panthers were then installed as 7 point Super Bowl dogs to the patritots and put on one heck of a fight before losing 32-29.
In 2002 the "Team of Destiny" turned out to be the Tampa Bucs who unlike the 2003 Panthers closed out the deal by defeating Super Bowl favorite Oakland 48-21...Tampa had posted a regular season record of 9-7 in 2001 and got crushed 31-9 by Philly in their opening playoff game which led to HC Tony Dungy getting fired and first year HC Jon Gruden taking the helm.
Jon Gruden took over the Tampa Bucs and led them to a regular season record of 12-4, the Bucs faced an Eagle team in the Conference Championship that also posted a regular season mark of 12-4, although Tampa's defense had been the first defense since the 1985 Chicago Bears to lead the league in both points allowed and yards allowed in the same season the Bucs were installed as 4 point dogs....the result was a Tampa 27-10 win and cover.
In 2001 the "Team of Destiny" turned out to be the patriots, the patriots had only finished 5-11 in 2000 and no one but possibly the biggest pat fan would have thought they would win the Super Bowl the next year...but they did.
The pats finsihed the 2001 regular season with a 11-5 record which was good enough to get them a first round bye in the playoffs after finishing the regular season by winning 8 of their final 9 games, in the Conference semi's warm weather Oakland had to travel to Foxboro and play in near blizzard conditions which of course benefited the pats.
In that game against the Raiders, patriot QB Tom Brady fumbled the ball to Oakland after he was hit by CB Charles Woodson, if the play stood the Raiders had the upper hand on the scoreboard and probably would have won the game and advanced to the AFC Championship game, as it was the referees came back with a ruling that Brady did not fumble the ball because of the "Tuck Rule".....the rest is history as the pats ended up winning 16-13.
The week following, the patriots traveled to Pittsburgh and were installed as 8.5 point dogs, the public's perception of new england was that they had "Lucked out" in defeating Oakland the previous week, this led to the line closing with the patriots as 10 point dogs.
The patriots defeated Pittsburgh 24-17 but needed a blocked FG attempt that went for a TD and a punt return that went for another TD to seal the upset, the patriots completed their "Team of Destiny" run by moving on to the 2001 Super Bowl as 14 point betting dogs and knocking out the lambs by the final of 20-17.
In 2000 the "Team of Destiny" was the Baltimore Ravens who ended up winning the Super Bowl with one the best defense's to ever play and a Tampa castoff QB named Trent Dilfer under center.
In 1999 the "Team of Destiny" turned out to be the St Louis Rams who were being led into battle by a former stock boy named Kurt Warner.
The 1998 and 1997 "Teams of Destiny" turned out to be non other than the John Elway led Denver Bronco's, the roast was in the oven and the table was set...one of the greatest QB's to ever play the game retired after winning two straight Super Bowls after losing his first three trips to the big show.
The point I am trying to make here is that each and every year there appears to be a "Team of Destiny", a team that for one reason or another somehow someway defied the odds.....or did these teams in question really defy the odds?
Other than the Denver Bronco's with John Elway, in virtually every case the "Team of Destiny" did not have an established QB under center and in most cases the "Team of Destiny" came out of nowhere, patriot Tom Brady took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe and won it all in 2001 but the following year in 2002 was a down year for the patriots who finished 9-7 and failed to even make the playoffs.
Hence, the speculation entering the 2003 playoffs that Bradys Super Bowl win might have been a fluke, it should be pointed out that the patriots were 8.5 home favorites in their opening 2003 playoff home game against Tenn but escaped with a 17-14 win before continuing on to win their second Super Bowl win in three years.
I believe Pittsburgh is this years "Team of Destiny", yes its true that they have a rookie QB under center and yes its true that they had a bad season last year, however, this Steeler team is essentially the 2001 patriots with regard to having had a bad season the year prior and thus came out of nowhere.
This Steeler team is also similar to the 2001 patriots in that the pats lost starting QB Drew Bledsoe early in the year to injury which forced the pats to go with little known backup QB Tom Brady, by the time Bledsoe was well enough to play again it was too late to get his job back because Brady was winning each start.
The exact same thing happened to Pittsburgh this season when starting QB Tommy Maddox when down with an elbow injury in week two, in steps unknown rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger, by the time Maddox was healthy enough to play again it also was too late because all Roethlisberger did was go undefeated the rest of the way.
This is also the exact same thing that happened to the St Louis Rams when they won the 1999 Super Bowl, starting QB Trent Green was injured in the final preseason game of the year, the lambs were forced to go with unknown backup QB Kurt Warner.
Just some thoughts....take care and good luck!!
Deb
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=1 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD noWrap>Sun 1/23</TD><TD noWrap>403</TD><TD noWrap>Patriot New England</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=checkboxx type=checkbox name=S1_0>-2½ -125 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=checkboxx type=checkbox name=M1_0>-150 </TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=checkboxx type=checkbox name=L1_0>Over 35 -105 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
at betjamaica.com, has been at -2' all week mostly at -120 until recently
at betjamaica.com, has been at -2' all week mostly at -120 until recently
Want to thank all that have responded to this thread regardless of position. Just want to make sure there is clarity in my position. Currently, the line has not moved a great deal, although it is still shaded towards the Steelers. As I said earlier in this thread in response to an inquiry from Greenhead, if the line doesn't come off 3 significantly, which it does not appear at this point that it will, my play will move towards the ML as there is more value there. Currently, if you buy 2.5 points at Pinnacle, the vig is (-174) while the ML is (-145) and may drop if the line drops, as there is a heavy shade once again towards the Steelers on the ML. Everyone should choose what makes them comfortable. Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the game.
salient point by a master clairvoyant
"This game will be won by the team with the most between the ears, not just the physical skills. Since Pittsburgh had so much success running the ball in the first game and it has been their pattern since Roethlisberger has been starting not to ask too much from their young quarterback, believe they will try to do the same thing in this game. Also believe that HC Belichick knows this as well and will decide to put 7 or as many as 8 in tight to stop the run and force Big Ben to try and read the varying and confusing defensive schemes consistently enough to try and beat the Patriots."
much thanks ted, petre
"This game will be won by the team with the most between the ears, not just the physical skills. Since Pittsburgh had so much success running the ball in the first game and it has been their pattern since Roethlisberger has been starting not to ask too much from their young quarterback, believe they will try to do the same thing in this game. Also believe that HC Belichick knows this as well and will decide to put 7 or as many as 8 in tight to stop the run and force Big Ben to try and read the varying and confusing defensive schemes consistently enough to try and beat the Patriots."
much thanks ted, petre
Hello Ted..
You were right on with regard to the Steelers probably coming up short due to the Pats edges overall edges in quarterbacking and coaching, I wonder if Steeler fans will be calling for Cowher's head after now losing four home AFC Championship games.
take care and good luck!
Deb
You were right on with regard to the Steelers probably coming up short due to the Pats edges overall edges in quarterbacking and coaching, I wonder if Steeler fans will be calling for Cowher's head after now losing four home AFC Championship games.
take care and good luck!
Deb
