Thought I would share my views on the AFC Conference Championship between New England and Pittsburgh. Rather then dwell on the statistical figures for each team which can be found in other threads in this forum, I would like to present some significant points that should be considered when deciding which side to play in this game. It has always been my position that the better you can visualize the way a game may be played, the better chance you have of being on the right side.
First let me begin by discussing the October 31st game between these two teams. As most of you know, the Steelers won that game 34-20 wherein they opened up a first quarter lead of 21-3 due in part to turnovers and then pounded the ball on the ground to maintain control. Perhaps what some may not know or have forgotten is that New England was coming off playing the undefeated New York Jets the prior week as both teams were 5-0 and the battle was for first place in the AFC East. It was a hard fought defensive battle that resulted in the Patriots prevailing 13-7. Meanwhile Pittsburgh was coming off a bye week following a game against Dallas and had two weeks to prepare for the Patriots arriving with a string of 21 consecutive wins. Futhermore, only 90 minutes before kick-off, RB Corey Dillon was declared out of the game with a sore quad muscle, plus key WR Deion Branch was out as well as starting RT Tom Ashworth. Their should be no doubt that the Patriot game planned for Dillon the entire week and the late scratch directly impacted not only the running game to the tune of a total of 5 yards, but the entire play calling. I submit this directly affected the offensive performance of the Patriots in that game, particularly the interceptions by Brady. Once significantly behind, the Steelers could use their ground attack to chew up time and yardage. Last, having a fresh Steeler team waiting in wake of the long undefeated Patriots coming off a tough divisional battle cannot be understated as well as the mild weather that allowed Big Ben to adequately find his receivers. But that was a regular season game with a different level of intensity.
Next I would like to discuss the subject of when teams meet for a second time. I mentioned above that the first meeting in the regular season had a different level of intensity. This is extremely important as when teams reach this level of play in a championship game, their level of play must rise to meet the level presented by their opponent, otherwise the game can become lopsided. Even more important are the adjustments that each team makes off the previous game. What follows is what I believe may occur. This game will be won by the team with the most between the ears, not just the physical skills. Since Pittsburgh had so much success running the ball in the first game and it has been their pattern since Roethlisberger has been starting not to ask too much from their young quarterback, believe they will try to do the same thing in this game. Also believe that HC Belichick knows this as well and will decide to put 7 or as many as 8 in tight to stop the run and force Big Ben to try and read the varying and confusing defensive schemes consistently enough to try and beat the Patriots. Belief here is that this time around, in weather conditions that forecast for light snow and temperatures in the 20's, the Steeler offense will sputter and be inconsistent both on the ground and in the air. Now, since Corey Dillon was out of the first game for the Patriots, with all of the discussion on this particular issue, expect that the Steelers will focus their attention on stopping Dillon, which they are certainly capable of doing for the most part. But, by doing so, believe that this may very well open up the passing game for the very experienced, but more importantly poised, Brady to do damage to the Steeler secondary.
Futhermore, it has always been my position that current form is more important then season long form. An example of that was last year as Carolina made it all the way to the Superbowl and covered the spread while losing the game. I bring this up as I believe last week's Divisional Round games tell a lot about the form that these two teams reached. Although some will disagree with me, the Steelers were very fortunate to win their game against the Jets. If not for two missed late possible game winning field goals by Jet kicker Brien, the Steelers would be at home. Some will point out that their defense only gave up 3 points as the other 14 points scored by the Jets were on a punt return and interception return, both for touchdowns. Let us not forget that it was the Steelers that took an early 10-0 lead in part on their touchdown following a turnover and short field. They gave up over 4 yards per carry on the ground to the Jets running backs Martin and Jordan as well as yielding yardage in the air to Pennington. Meanwhile, Big Ben often made incorrect decisions and threw the ball into coverage and was picked off as well as looking confused at times. How might he perform against the disguised defenses thrown at him by Belichick? The touchdowns scored by the Jets should not be considered as flukes or mistakes, they were the result of a breakdown in execution. This week the team the Steelers face will be well prepared, poised, experienced and will not beat themselves and the mere fact that they were beaten by the Steelers early in the year will cause them to be even more focused. Expect a very similar level of performance that they gave against the Colts. True, the Steelers will rally around the underdog role and seeming lack of respect by the oddsmakers, but when all is said and done, the players must be able to execute and there is a significant difference in key player experience between these two teams at this level.
Last, a brief mention of the line on this game. It is my belief that the line has topped out at 3 and on game day could very well move back towards a pick, although I think that is unlikely. However, it would not surprise me to see the line move back down to 1 or 1.5 before kick-off as the line is currently being shaded toward the Steelers and belief here is that many will choose to take the points. If you like the Steelers, then by all means take the current points. If you like the Patriots, wait as the line may move to give you a better number and even if you wish not to lay any points, the moneyline will improve as well. As for me, I plan on waiting as long as possible.
Finally, an important reminder. Because the end of football season is nearing, many will choose to wager far too much on this game, often times chasing losses for the season or just because the season is coming to an end. There are possible plays everyday, every week, every month, and every year. This is just one play and should be treated as such. Make your play within your means and enjoy the game and as always, best of luck to each of you.
Overall Unit Record YTD: (46-36.3)(+9.70) 3*(0-1)(-3.30) 2*(2-0)(+4.00) 1*(42-30-1)(+9.00)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (44-31-1) 58.67%
NFL Record YTD: (12-5)(+5.30)
NCAAF Record YTD: (32-26-1)(+4.40)
Unrated Play Record
Second Half: (2-1)
Live In Game: (2-1)
Teasers: (1-1)
Plays rated 1*-3*
Good Luck All.
First let me begin by discussing the October 31st game between these two teams. As most of you know, the Steelers won that game 34-20 wherein they opened up a first quarter lead of 21-3 due in part to turnovers and then pounded the ball on the ground to maintain control. Perhaps what some may not know or have forgotten is that New England was coming off playing the undefeated New York Jets the prior week as both teams were 5-0 and the battle was for first place in the AFC East. It was a hard fought defensive battle that resulted in the Patriots prevailing 13-7. Meanwhile Pittsburgh was coming off a bye week following a game against Dallas and had two weeks to prepare for the Patriots arriving with a string of 21 consecutive wins. Futhermore, only 90 minutes before kick-off, RB Corey Dillon was declared out of the game with a sore quad muscle, plus key WR Deion Branch was out as well as starting RT Tom Ashworth. Their should be no doubt that the Patriot game planned for Dillon the entire week and the late scratch directly impacted not only the running game to the tune of a total of 5 yards, but the entire play calling. I submit this directly affected the offensive performance of the Patriots in that game, particularly the interceptions by Brady. Once significantly behind, the Steelers could use their ground attack to chew up time and yardage. Last, having a fresh Steeler team waiting in wake of the long undefeated Patriots coming off a tough divisional battle cannot be understated as well as the mild weather that allowed Big Ben to adequately find his receivers. But that was a regular season game with a different level of intensity.
Next I would like to discuss the subject of when teams meet for a second time. I mentioned above that the first meeting in the regular season had a different level of intensity. This is extremely important as when teams reach this level of play in a championship game, their level of play must rise to meet the level presented by their opponent, otherwise the game can become lopsided. Even more important are the adjustments that each team makes off the previous game. What follows is what I believe may occur. This game will be won by the team with the most between the ears, not just the physical skills. Since Pittsburgh had so much success running the ball in the first game and it has been their pattern since Roethlisberger has been starting not to ask too much from their young quarterback, believe they will try to do the same thing in this game. Also believe that HC Belichick knows this as well and will decide to put 7 or as many as 8 in tight to stop the run and force Big Ben to try and read the varying and confusing defensive schemes consistently enough to try and beat the Patriots. Belief here is that this time around, in weather conditions that forecast for light snow and temperatures in the 20's, the Steeler offense will sputter and be inconsistent both on the ground and in the air. Now, since Corey Dillon was out of the first game for the Patriots, with all of the discussion on this particular issue, expect that the Steelers will focus their attention on stopping Dillon, which they are certainly capable of doing for the most part. But, by doing so, believe that this may very well open up the passing game for the very experienced, but more importantly poised, Brady to do damage to the Steeler secondary.
Futhermore, it has always been my position that current form is more important then season long form. An example of that was last year as Carolina made it all the way to the Superbowl and covered the spread while losing the game. I bring this up as I believe last week's Divisional Round games tell a lot about the form that these two teams reached. Although some will disagree with me, the Steelers were very fortunate to win their game against the Jets. If not for two missed late possible game winning field goals by Jet kicker Brien, the Steelers would be at home. Some will point out that their defense only gave up 3 points as the other 14 points scored by the Jets were on a punt return and interception return, both for touchdowns. Let us not forget that it was the Steelers that took an early 10-0 lead in part on their touchdown following a turnover and short field. They gave up over 4 yards per carry on the ground to the Jets running backs Martin and Jordan as well as yielding yardage in the air to Pennington. Meanwhile, Big Ben often made incorrect decisions and threw the ball into coverage and was picked off as well as looking confused at times. How might he perform against the disguised defenses thrown at him by Belichick? The touchdowns scored by the Jets should not be considered as flukes or mistakes, they were the result of a breakdown in execution. This week the team the Steelers face will be well prepared, poised, experienced and will not beat themselves and the mere fact that they were beaten by the Steelers early in the year will cause them to be even more focused. Expect a very similar level of performance that they gave against the Colts. True, the Steelers will rally around the underdog role and seeming lack of respect by the oddsmakers, but when all is said and done, the players must be able to execute and there is a significant difference in key player experience between these two teams at this level.
Last, a brief mention of the line on this game. It is my belief that the line has topped out at 3 and on game day could very well move back towards a pick, although I think that is unlikely. However, it would not surprise me to see the line move back down to 1 or 1.5 before kick-off as the line is currently being shaded toward the Steelers and belief here is that many will choose to take the points. If you like the Steelers, then by all means take the current points. If you like the Patriots, wait as the line may move to give you a better number and even if you wish not to lay any points, the moneyline will improve as well. As for me, I plan on waiting as long as possible.
Finally, an important reminder. Because the end of football season is nearing, many will choose to wager far too much on this game, often times chasing losses for the season or just because the season is coming to an end. There are possible plays everyday, every week, every month, and every year. This is just one play and should be treated as such. Make your play within your means and enjoy the game and as always, best of luck to each of you.
Overall Unit Record YTD: (46-36.3)(+9.70) 3*(0-1)(-3.30) 2*(2-0)(+4.00) 1*(42-30-1)(+9.00)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (44-31-1) 58.67%
NFL Record YTD: (12-5)(+5.30)
NCAAF Record YTD: (32-26-1)(+4.40)
Unrated Play Record
Second Half: (2-1)
Live In Game: (2-1)
Teasers: (1-1)
Plays rated 1*-3*
Good Luck All.
