Oldmans Picks For Saturday 10/23/04

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Ted.

I couldn't agree more. This is only my 5th year of gambling offshore but I can't begin to tell you how much better I am at handicapping today then 5 years ago.

By the way. I love your picks. I'm playing all of them except K St. I just can't pull the trigger when the starting QB may not play.
 

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Northern Star:

I am very familiar with the Kelly Criterion and my own method of money management is a slight deviation from the method, primarily in time frame and when to make adjustments. I wrote a thread last December wherein I detailed the method I use and provided my entire 2002 Football Season as an example. The key point was to show that while winning at a modest rate of 55.15%, my bankroll increased 94%. The primary difference that I use is in time frame. My determinations are made based on the size of my bankroll at the beginning of the wagering week and then redetermined at the conclusion of that week as the base bankroll for the following week. Thus, the dollar amount, which will be a percentage of my bankroll for any one play, i.e. 1%, 2%, etc. will be constant for a wagering week. The following week, if the bankroll is larger or smaller, then the percentages remain within the same variation, but the dollar amount is different. One caviat however is that I don't change my wager amount, except as predicated by the rated percentage of a play, until the overall bankroll increases or decreases in 20% increments.

Want to thank you for your offer to dig up your copy of the Kelly Criterion, but that won't be necessary. All the best to you in the future and thank you for your effort.
 

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ted

great job again this year.Iam supprised to see you on the penn st vs iowa game on either side.you being on mizz will probabley get me off that game

on behave of the forum. I would like to thank you for posting your plays and helping the players

do us and yourself a favor. find a doctor that is going to make you feel better

hope you have a great weekend

as always

good luck

panther
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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OldmanTed:

You wrote: I wrote a thread last December wherein I detailed the method I use and provided my entire 2002 Football Season as an example. The key point was to show that while winning at a modest rate of 55.15%, my bankroll increased 94%.

Do you remember if you wrote that in early DEC or late DEC, and in which forum (NCAA football or NFL) because I'd be curious to read that thread...There ar a ton of threads to wade through and it would be easier to find if I knew when in DEC you wrote it, unless you have it handy...

Thanx...

brewers7
 

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Ted:
I got home and had to do some digging just for the heck of it. One of my weakness is playing to many games. I need to try over and over again to limit my plays. Playing less games and hitting a higher percentage of your plays will result in a more sucessful experience. I used to have some interesting old publications by I think his name was Huey Maul or something like that, he had a weekly newsletter, some interesting thoughts and ideas. They were back in the 70's or so. Some of the best reading and theories I ever saw in the gambling world. Baseball was his specialty.

Have you ever seen this example. Start with a bankroll of $1,000, always play 6% of your bankroll, never more or less, so your first bet is $60. Adjust after every win or loss. Lets say you make just one play a day and hit 58%, after 1,500 plays on say 10/11 type wagers and your record is 870-630, your bankroll would be an amazing:

$1,372,000.

The equation to figure it out is:

Bankroll = ( ( (1 + average payout x % of bankroll wagered )) W( (1- % of bankroll wagered) L)

W and L are raised to that power, I couldn't get it to do it on my post easily. The main flaws are the ability to actually hit 58% of your plays for 1,500 plays. Tough to do. At the end, the ability to get wagers down of $50 to $80 thousand dollars down at the line you want is not that easy. This is a cool formula if you have never seen it.

Northern Star
 

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Star,

Nice to see you posting on a regular basis here. All it took was a few wins from the guy you gave the nickname MG Man, I think it stands for Money Good Man. Ted comes here as a very experienced gambler with some of the best money management skills on the forum.

As for you and me, that's a different story. I have to admit the one year I won a ton of money was the year I had the most discipline.

Ted, as the Irish say "Here's raising a glass to your health".

Keep up the great work. I also noticed you had more plays than normal which is interesting.

MG Man

:)
 

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Hey oldmanTed,

I've read your posts for a while, and I must say that I have lots of respect for you.

You mentioned that you learned a lot through experience, and I was wondering if you have any advice for this weekend gambler.

thank you and here's to your health!

Eric
 

May The Winners Be Yours
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As a rare poster but constant lurker i "seek out" your posts Old Man Ted. Whether I bet on your picks or not, I always consider them in my wagers for the week.

Thanks again for your input and GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND!!!
 

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eric33179:

In responding to your inquiry, first it must be said that if one wants to be successful at anything in life, including gambling, achieving success is directly related to the amount of work that one puts forth. That being said, if as a weekend gambler, you are strictly wagering for entertainment, my only advice would be to wager only what you can afford to lose and play just enough to enjoy yourself. If you feel that you want to be a successful weekend gambler, then the best advice I can give you is to expect to have to spend a fair amount of hours preparing and evaluating teams and analyzing their strengths and weaknesses to help improve your potential for success. This is not an easy business and those few that have been consistently successful put in a significant effort to achieve their success. Unfortunately, there are no short cuts to winning. Best of luck to you in the future.
 

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Ted,...glad that your back posting...Hope everything continues to get better for you....I only have positive thoughts and prayers for you as always....GL luck tomorrow and dont stop kicking the Mans Ass my friend...Aloha CC.:)
 

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As many of you know, I try my best to respond to anyone who replies to my thread, particularly if they have a question they would like answered. That being said, today I would like to thank all those who have replied to this thread with their well wishes and anyone in the past who has done the same. I never forget those that have been kind to me and would like to acknowledge those from this thread and please except my apologies if I have left out anyone from previous threads. For you have not been forgotten. So a special thanks today to:

Hustler982
Betguy
Hitman26
Smokey Wins
shotgun69
ct giant
Illini
oldirtyku
Mr. Leisure
Coach LT
TheBuffrock
SSI
LEYKIS101
Northern Star
jerseymike111
Easy Money
Panther
brewers7
Superbowl
MG Man
eric33179
johnlee
pags11
Co-Captain

Hope everyone has a very successful day today. Best of luck to all.
 

You're my boy Blue!
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GL today Ted! Always great to see your plays...I was actually surprised by how many games you were on today. I usually see you play 3 or 4 at most
 

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i made the same mistake with penn st....joepa is unfortunately clueless...the game has passed him by....this game is painful to watch....

g.l.
 

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Handicapper
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The game passed him by 7 years ago. Now, he is just showing his ass by not stepping down. He's going to destroy EVERYTHING he spent 30 years building.......talk about going on tilt.
 

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