Oldmans Pick For Thursday 2/19/04

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

That's great news. Love hearing about fellow posters being successful. Surprised to hear you let the line move on Maryland, if you were going to play it. At 4, that's a lot of lost value in a game like this one. Terrapins now have to win by 5. It might come back a bit, perhaps to 3 or 3.5. Like to hear you will be more selective. Always a good sign. You will surely see the benefit as time passes. Good luck to you tonight.

 

[oldmanTED]

tigerclicks:

I'm watching golf right now. Began just a few minutes ago taped delayed. So don't tell me how anyone is doing. Let me be surprised. Good luck on your plays tonight.

 

[SportSavant]

ted, I didnt play it at 4...thats what I meant when i said I missed it...problem is I was at work from 8am to 4pm & is sometime hard to 'work' from there...

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

Just checked your NBA play now. How about that! We agree. Good luck. As you can see, I like the Kings here as well.

As for Maryland, I figured you didn't play it at 4 but was mentioning that you just missed it before it moved. Like I said, it could come back a bit.

 

[SportSavant]

I have 3.5 available to me...but it scares me...also missed the boat on another play which would have been kings over 206.5 but now 207.5

I have found one strategy to be quite succesful however, I watch the threads for plays from cappers whom I respect...obviously you are one of them, SSI & a handful of others aswell...then write down the plays to narrow them down...I usually play my games late & am looking for line movements against my cappers plays...For example if the line tonite had moved in favor of G Tech & all of a sudden was G Tech Pick...then I would have pounced on Maryland...the downside is I can miss alot of good plays this way...anyays just rambling...

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

Given the strategy you are using, please be aware that I take a line when I am comfortable where it is and expect it to move, thus the take. After 30+ years of doing this, I have a pretty good feel for which direction a line will move on a play that I may be interested in. I'm far from right all the time but,I am a pretty high percentage of the time. This is only on games that I am looking to play and not the entire board.

 

[oldmanTED]

For instance, tonight's Sacramento/Minnesota game should be around 1 or 2 but opened at 3 because of Miller. The current 4.5 provides good value. That doesn't mean it will win, but you are sitting in a much better position because the line is off.

 

[SportSavant]

I understand what you are saying...& beleive me...I do try to get down If I can see the same # you had...additionally...I dont think I have the discipline

 

[SSI]

ted, my handicapping says Kings and my technicals say minny,, thus a no-play, also same techs that say minny (say Md). so good luck on MD.. im sticking with my parlay for now..

 

[oldmanTED]

SSI:

Once again good luck on your play. For me, just like Oklahoma State earlier in the week, I'm having difficulty laying off the Kings. That 4.5 is really attractive. This game feels tight, if not an outright win.

 

[oldmanTED]

Pulled the trigger on Sacramento. Play shown in the NBA Forum.