Oldman's 4* Picks For Thursday 5/3/07

[oldmanTED]

Gr8 analysis OMT,of both games & teams.

I'm betting Utah -4.5, that's the logical play.

As for Dallas, I was there for game 5, 5th row seats behind Mavs bench, & saw what the real Mavs are all about in the 1stQ, & saw what they're all about when Dirk stepped up in last 3mins of game for comeback win.

Dallas is still the better team, GS players know that, but they are not afraid of Dallas & they do matchup well vs Dallas.
However one has to admit that GS lives & die by 3pt shooting as evidenced in Game 5 (48% 3pts made is insane), Dallas gave GS too many opps for open 3pts shots & GS hit them, but they also missed 6 in a row in last 3mins of game!!!
Dallas needs to double team Baron & not allow GS too many 3pts opps & be more aggressive & assertive by taking the ball to the basket more often, which they can do but have been very hesitant to do for most of games vs GS, & I blame coach (Avery) for that!!!
If Dallas does all that & Dirks steps up to the elite player status that he is, & I believe he will then Dallas wins this game.

I'm taking Dallas -2.5 pts just cause I'm a :homer:

One more thing, for dallas to win the moon & stars have to also be all alligned perfectly

Go Mavs

Thank you. Tried my best to provide some reasoning. Understand the homer. Can't blame you. Best of luck with the Jazz at least.

 

[oldmanTED]

the chances of the moon and the stars to be alligned perfectly..... is that likely???

:aktion033

 

[oldmanTED]

hello my friend, good luck with the warriors tonight.... ill probably be joining you but on the ML.......

slightly disagree with you on the Jazz pick tonight, simply because of the pressure thats going to be on Utah...

could be alot of value in the points tonight...... either way, this years playoffs (in my opinion) have been pretty exciting to watch.....

Nice to hear from you SSI. I thought about the ML as well, just decided on the conservative route just in case. As for Houston, we can agree to disagree. Let the games begin.

 

[oldmanTED]

I will likely be on them both Ted. GL today and always!

Thanks Cash. Great to have you along. I have appreciated your support all these years plus constructive dialogue. Enjoy the evening.

 

[SSI]

Ted, not a big disagreement.... i definately see how the Jazz would be the popular pick but i think there is alot of value in those points tonight... it may go back to Houston but i think we get 2 close games tonight.....

 

[oldmanTED]

As a Bay Area native and WILL BE THERE TONIGHT I can sum up the Warriors & Dallas mindset thus far.


GS = Inherently believe deep down they can beat Dallas anytime, anywhere
DAL = Trying to build on confidence and identity after game 5 win.

You lucking son of a gun. I had my day back in 1975 with second row center court seats for $10 each when the Warriors upset Washington in the finals 4-0. Enjoy and bring us home a winner tonight.

 

[oldmanTED]

Golden State will finish it up at home tonight. Got to BELIEVE!

We Believe!

 

[oldmanTED]

Agree and on both.GL:toast:

Great! Best of luck to you.

 

[oldmanTED]

Dogs are 5-2 ATS in close out games this post-season, but interestingly enough only 2-5 SU. Keep this in mind tonight in both games I'd think.

For what it's worth, overs are 4-3 in the 7 games with two way over and two way under.

Yes! But what is the record for Home Dogs in close-out games over time?

 

[oldmanTED]

Let's cash these boss...
I love the over 52 3rd quarter tonight.. That will be my large play... Lets go GS and Utah...

AW?™

Let's keep this train rolling AW. :toast:

 

[oldmanTED]

HOUSTON AT UTAH - PROBABLE STARTING LINEUPS


   HOUSTON                                          UTAH                                         

F  Shane Battier                                 F  Andrei Kirilenko                             
F  Chuck Hayes                                   F  Carlos Boozer                                
C  Yao Ming                                      C  Mehmet Okur                                  
G  Tracy McGrady                                 G  Derek Fisher                                 
G  Rafer Alston                                  G  Deron Williams                               

OFFICIALS: Dick Bavetta
           Ken Mauer
           Brian Forte

 

[ACEWHO]

Let's keep this train rolling AW. :toast:

I'll be here at halftime...

 

[oldmanTED]

I'll be here at halftime...

Not sure about halftime on these but we'll see how they go!

 

[MRLUE]

ted, do you have a lean on the over under on the dallas game??

 

[AFLGuru]

I've only done a quick look at the 7 close out games so far in this postseason, so the sample set isn't very good, but we can look at this closer...

Orlando - Dog (W)
Washington - Dog (L)
Miami (L)
Toronto (L)

Dallas (L)
Phoenix (L)
San Antonio (W)

Home teams also 2-5 ATS this postseason... that's because most of them are favorites. Home dogs are 1-1 ATS, but consider that the loser was Washington? I don't know... I tend to believe in my gut that Dallas trounces Golden State at some point in a game in this series again, but it's gonna be hard with that crowd behind the Warriors.

As far as the Jazz... once again, we'll see. Unless Me-Mac goes Kobe on us and tries forcing everything in the world to drop, Yao could be posed for a large night in the paint, and if he does that, it'll be difficult for Utah to pull through.

 

[oldmanTED]

ted, do you have a lean on the over under on the dallas game??

No! I have no opinion on the total pre-game. Perhaps second half depending on how the first half is played. Sorry!

 

[oldmanTED]

I've only done a quick look at the 7 close out games so far in this postseason, so the sample set isn't very good, but we can look at this closer...

Orlando - Dog (W)
Washington - Dog (L)
Miami (L)
Toronto (L)

Dallas (L)
Phoenix (L)
San Antonio (W)

Home teams also 2-5 ATS this postseason... that's because most of them are favorites. Home dogs are 1-1 ATS, but consider that the loser was Washington? I don't know... I tend to believe in my gut that Dallas trounces Golden State at some point in a game in this series again, but it's gonna be hard with that crowd behind the Warriors.

As far as the Jazz... once again, we'll see. Unless Me-Mac goes Kobe on us and tries forcing everything in the world to drop, Yao could be posed for a large night in the paint, and if he does that, it'll be difficult for Utah to pull through.

Thanks Guru. The reason I asked the question was rhetorical. Home dogs in post season play in most major sports are difficult to beat and in close-out games even more so. Keep your eye open in future events in all major sports and you'll see what I mean. They are Very Live Dogs in that situation.

 

[AFLGuru]

It just feels like this line has been compensated at least 2-3 points because of that fact already... but again, we'll see. Good luck to you tonight. I'll be pulling for you.

 

[BoutMyMoney]

with you OMT!!

 

[oldmanTED]

Second Half Play: 4* Houston/Utah Over 92 The Greek