He'll be even money at best. There are many thousands of people that will make the trip from Philly to Baltimore for the Preakness to see the Philly Park horse run and their money will all be on Smarty. He will not have any value at the track odds so I'd hop on the +145 if you think he'll win. I agree with most in that he will win at Pimlico but struggle at Belmont.
Preakness match-ups from Pinnacle.
Matchups
Smarty Jones vs Lion Heart
201 Smarty Jones -174
202 Lion Heart +164
Smarty Jones vs Rock Hard Ten
203 Smarty Jones -186
204 Rock Hard Ten +176
Smarty Jones vs Lion Heart/The Cliff's Edge
205 Smarty Jones -117
206 Lion Heart/The Cliff's Edge +107
Smarty Jones vs Lion Heart/Imperialism
207 Smarty Jones -126
208 Lion Heart/Imperialism +116
Smarty Jones vs Eddington/Rock Hard Ten
209 Smarty Jones -141
210 Eddington/Rock Hard Ten +131
Smarty Jones vs Lion Heart/Rock Hard Ten
211 Smarty Jones -123
212 Lion Heart/Rock Hard Ten +113
Smarty Jones vs Imperialism/Borrego
213 Smarty Jones -152
214 Imperialism/Borrego +142
Lion Heart vs The Cliff's Edge
215 Lion Heart -142
216 The Cliff's Edge +132
Lion Heart vs Imperialism
217 Lion Heart -132
218 Imperialism +122
Lion Heart vs Eddington
219 Lion Heart -167
220 Eddington +157
Lion Heart vs Rock Hard Ten
221 Lion Heart -134
222 Rock Hard Ten +124
The Cliff's Edge vs Imperialism
223 The Cliff's Edge +100
224 Imperialism -110
The Cliff's Edge vs Rock Hard Ten
225 The Cliff's Edge +100
226 Rock Hard Ten -110
Eddington vs Rock Hard Ten
227 Eddington +132
228 Rock Hard Ten -142
The Cliff's Edge vs Borrego
229 The Cliff's Edge -171
230 Borrego +161
Imperialism vs Rock Hard Ten
231 Imperialism +106
232 Rock Hard Ten -116
Imperialism vs Borrego
233 Imperialism -158
234 Borrego +148
Imperialism vs Eddington
235 Imperialism -135
236 Eddington +125
wil.
Matchups
Smarty Jones vs Lion Heart
201 Smarty Jones -174
202 Lion Heart +164
Smarty Jones vs Rock Hard Ten
203 Smarty Jones -186
204 Rock Hard Ten +176
Smarty Jones vs Lion Heart/The Cliff's Edge
205 Smarty Jones -117
206 Lion Heart/The Cliff's Edge +107
Smarty Jones vs Lion Heart/Imperialism
207 Smarty Jones -126
208 Lion Heart/Imperialism +116
Smarty Jones vs Eddington/Rock Hard Ten
209 Smarty Jones -141
210 Eddington/Rock Hard Ten +131
Smarty Jones vs Lion Heart/Rock Hard Ten
211 Smarty Jones -123
212 Lion Heart/Rock Hard Ten +113
Smarty Jones vs Imperialism/Borrego
213 Smarty Jones -152
214 Imperialism/Borrego +142
Lion Heart vs The Cliff's Edge
215 Lion Heart -142
216 The Cliff's Edge +132
Lion Heart vs Imperialism
217 Lion Heart -132
218 Imperialism +122
Lion Heart vs Eddington
219 Lion Heart -167
220 Eddington +157
Lion Heart vs Rock Hard Ten
221 Lion Heart -134
222 Rock Hard Ten +124
The Cliff's Edge vs Imperialism
223 The Cliff's Edge +100
224 Imperialism -110
The Cliff's Edge vs Rock Hard Ten
225 The Cliff's Edge +100
226 Rock Hard Ten -110
Eddington vs Rock Hard Ten
227 Eddington +132
228 Rock Hard Ten -142
The Cliff's Edge vs Borrego
229 The Cliff's Edge -171
230 Borrego +161
Imperialism vs Rock Hard Ten
231 Imperialism +106
232 Rock Hard Ten -116
Imperialism vs Borrego
233 Imperialism -158
234 Borrego +148
Imperialism vs Eddington
235 Imperialism -135
236 Eddington +125
wil.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I love the "tactical" speed SJ has <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Esp. for the Pimlico course...This may well be a very average bunch of 3 year olds at best..considering the near 27 last quarter I would look for a lot better showing from The Cliff's Edge and a talented Eddington!
Preakness field breakdown by ESPN's Ed McNamara:
SMARTY JONES
It's kind of tough to knock a colt that's 7-for-7 and just dominated the Kentucky Derby. But if you didn't have him at 4-1 in Louisville, why hop on the bandwagon now and accept 8-5 or lower in Baltimore? The people's horse has run three consecutive career tops, and sooner or later he'll regress. As his trainer, John Servis, told the Daily Racing Form: "Horses are not machines. He's going to tail off eventually. When? I can't tell you." If he wins and goes for the Triple Crown, a great saga will roll on. I won't be betting on him, though, unless he's 5-2 or better, which is most unlikely.
LION HEART
Top-class front-runner will be gunning from the gate again. I think the sloppy, speed-favoring track on Derby Day carried this brilliant colt a bit farther than he wants to go, and I don't think he's a 1?-mile animal. He should get pressure up front this time, and I wonder how he'll handle it. Could be the underlay of the race, but he should lead at least until the top of the stretch. Never been worse than second, and that record may be in jeopardy.
IMPERIALISM
Kristin Mulhall has done a terrific job with this overachiever, who clunked up late to be a non-threatening third in the Derby. Did he stay the distance or just dislike the off track less than those behind him? Since he has three in-the-money finishes in five starts on wet tracks, I think the surface had more to do with his completing the trifecta. Originally was going to skip the Preakness, but Mulhall persuaded owner Steve Taub to go. He's winless beyond a mile on fast tracks, and I think he'll be an underlay that finishes off the board.
BORREGO
Plodder is 0-for-4 in graded stakes and looks like the type who could slip into the triple or maybe even the exacta if the pace is hot and he gets a dream trip. Had no chance coming from far back at Churchill, and he's better than what he showed. If he's 12-1 or more, he's worth using in exotics, but I'd be amazed if he won the Preakness.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
The excuse horse of the Derby, this deep closer lost two front shoes, had traffic trouble and still managed to run fifth. Will he be overbet or ignored? If he's 5-1 or so, he may offer value. Unfortunately, the wise guys may gravitate toward him and make his odds lower than I'd want to take. On a fast track with a contested, fast pace to run at, he could win. He was the morning-line Derby favorite off his very impressive Blue Grass win, and a major bounce-back would be no surprise.
EDDINGTON
If he'd gotten into the Derby, I was going to pick him, but his low graded-stakes earnings kept him out. Maybe missing the race was the best thing that could have happened to him. He's been working very well at Belmont Park and he has the pedigree to love the 1 3/16-mile distance. He's never been out of the money but is 0-for-2 in graded stakes and has run erratically at times. Negative: With Jerry Bailey riding, he may get more action than he should. At 6-1 or better, I'll be interested in betting him, and he belongs in your exotics.
ROCK HARD TEN
You could hang out in paddocks for the next 10 years and never see a more impressive physical specimen than this colt. If they did a movie about Pegasus, the winged horse of Greek mythology, this mega-stud would be the model. He's been a buzz horse in California since before his career debut Feb. 7, and he hasn't done much wrong. Unfortunately, he's run only three times and almost certainly will get more play than he should. Like Eddington, he didn't get into the Derby because of a problem with graded-stakes earnings, which undoubtedly was a blessing. I expect big things from him down the road, but weigh his price at Pimlico with the risk/reward angle.
WATER CANNON
Every year a few locally based horses with no credentials pop up in the Preakness, and this no-hoper comes straight from central casting. Trained by Maryland regular Linda Albert, he needed seven starts to break his maiden against lousy fields. He won a very weak 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes last month at Pimlico, so here he is. Doesn't belong with the best of his generation, and I hope he doesn't get in anyone's way and compromise a contender's chances. No figures and no chance.
LITTLE MATTH MAN
Deep closer ran seventh in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct after plunking up for third in the quirky Lane's End at Turfway. He's in way over his head here, with one win in 10 tries on fast tracks. Would need lots of rain to have any chance to finish in the top half of the field. I hope he stays home.
PREACHINATTHEBAR
Bob Baffert pulled him out of the Derby because he wasn't showing enough in his workouts at Churchill. Stalker has enough tactical speed to be near the pace but shouldn't concern you if you like Lion Heart. He's only 1-for-4 in stakes and can't be considered a serious threat in top company. Even Baffert's Triple Crown wizardry won't help this one.
SIR SHACKLETON
If Nick Zito enters this speedy winner of the mile Derby Trial, it will be as a rabbit for stablemate The Cliff's Edge. He has enough early foot to put heat on Lion Heart and might affect the pace dynamic, but he can't win.
Typically, the Preakness winner makes its move from just off the pace or from midpack and raced in the Kentucky Derby. In the past 20 runnings, only one winner (Louis Quatorze, 1996) went wire to wire, and only one had skipped the Derby (Red Bullet, 2000).
Since 1984, here's the profile of the horses that won the big one at Pimlico: Derby winner: 7 Beaten Derby favorite: 5 Third or worse in Derby, and not the Derby favorite: 7 Skipped the Derby: 1 Here's an obvious angle that has worked in five of the past 20 Preaknesses, though not since 1998: Box the Derby exacta at Pimlico. Of course, no self-respecting wise guy will tout a box of Smarty Jones and Lion Heart this Saturday, but it might be a wise saver play. Here's my horse-by-horse analysis of the Preakness:
SMARTY JONES
It's kind of tough to knock a colt that's 7-for-7 and just dominated the Kentucky Derby. But if you didn't have him at 4-1 in Louisville, why hop on the bandwagon now and accept 8-5 or lower in Baltimore? The people's horse has run three consecutive career tops, and sooner or later he'll regress. As his trainer, John Servis, told the Daily Racing Form: "Horses are not machines. He's going to tail off eventually. When? I can't tell you." If he wins and goes for the Triple Crown, a great saga will roll on. I won't be betting on him, though, unless he's 5-2 or better, which is most unlikely.
LION HEART
Top-class front-runner will be gunning from the gate again. I think the sloppy, speed-favoring track on Derby Day carried this brilliant colt a bit farther than he wants to go, and I don't think he's a 1?-mile animal. He should get pressure up front this time, and I wonder how he'll handle it. Could be the underlay of the race, but he should lead at least until the top of the stretch. Never been worse than second, and that record may be in jeopardy.
IMPERIALISM
Kristin Mulhall has done a terrific job with this overachiever, who clunked up late to be a non-threatening third in the Derby. Did he stay the distance or just dislike the off track less than those behind him? Since he has three in-the-money finishes in five starts on wet tracks, I think the surface had more to do with his completing the trifecta. Originally was going to skip the Preakness, but Mulhall persuaded owner Steve Taub to go. He's winless beyond a mile on fast tracks, and I think he'll be an underlay that finishes off the board.
BORREGO
Plodder is 0-for-4 in graded stakes and looks like the type who could slip into the triple or maybe even the exacta if the pace is hot and he gets a dream trip. Had no chance coming from far back at Churchill, and he's better than what he showed. If he's 12-1 or more, he's worth using in exotics, but I'd be amazed if he won the Preakness.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
The excuse horse of the Derby, this deep closer lost two front shoes, had traffic trouble and still managed to run fifth. Will he be overbet or ignored? If he's 5-1 or so, he may offer value. Unfortunately, the wise guys may gravitate toward him and make his odds lower than I'd want to take. On a fast track with a contested, fast pace to run at, he could win. He was the morning-line Derby favorite off his very impressive Blue Grass win, and a major bounce-back would be no surprise.
EDDINGTON
If he'd gotten into the Derby, I was going to pick him, but his low graded-stakes earnings kept him out. Maybe missing the race was the best thing that could have happened to him. He's been working very well at Belmont Park and he has the pedigree to love the 1 3/16-mile distance. He's never been out of the money but is 0-for-2 in graded stakes and has run erratically at times. Negative: With Jerry Bailey riding, he may get more action than he should. At 6-1 or better, I'll be interested in betting him, and he belongs in your exotics.
ROCK HARD TEN
You could hang out in paddocks for the next 10 years and never see a more impressive physical specimen than this colt. If they did a movie about Pegasus, the winged horse of Greek mythology, this mega-stud would be the model. He's been a buzz horse in California since before his career debut Feb. 7, and he hasn't done much wrong. Unfortunately, he's run only three times and almost certainly will get more play than he should. Like Eddington, he didn't get into the Derby because of a problem with graded-stakes earnings, which undoubtedly was a blessing. I expect big things from him down the road, but weigh his price at Pimlico with the risk/reward angle.
WATER CANNON
Every year a few locally based horses with no credentials pop up in the Preakness, and this no-hoper comes straight from central casting. Trained by Maryland regular Linda Albert, he needed seven starts to break his maiden against lousy fields. He won a very weak 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes last month at Pimlico, so here he is. Doesn't belong with the best of his generation, and I hope he doesn't get in anyone's way and compromise a contender's chances. No figures and no chance.
LITTLE MATTH MAN
Deep closer ran seventh in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct after plunking up for third in the quirky Lane's End at Turfway. He's in way over his head here, with one win in 10 tries on fast tracks. Would need lots of rain to have any chance to finish in the top half of the field. I hope he stays home.
PREACHINATTHEBAR
Bob Baffert pulled him out of the Derby because he wasn't showing enough in his workouts at Churchill. Stalker has enough tactical speed to be near the pace but shouldn't concern you if you like Lion Heart. He's only 1-for-4 in stakes and can't be considered a serious threat in top company. Even Baffert's Triple Crown wizardry won't help this one.
SIR SHACKLETON
If Nick Zito enters this speedy winner of the mile Derby Trial, it will be as a rabbit for stablemate The Cliff's Edge. He has enough early foot to put heat on Lion Heart and might affect the pace dynamic, but he can't win.
Typically, the Preakness winner makes its move from just off the pace or from midpack and raced in the Kentucky Derby. In the past 20 runnings, only one winner (Louis Quatorze, 1996) went wire to wire, and only one had skipped the Derby (Red Bullet, 2000).
Since 1984, here's the profile of the horses that won the big one at Pimlico: Derby winner: 7 Beaten Derby favorite: 5 Third or worse in Derby, and not the Derby favorite: 7 Skipped the Derby: 1 Here's an obvious angle that has worked in five of the past 20 Preaknesses, though not since 1998: Box the Derby exacta at Pimlico. Of course, no self-respecting wise guy will tout a box of Smarty Jones and Lion Heart this Saturday, but it might be a wise saver play. Here's my horse-by-horse analysis of the Preakness:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by bolivar:
I dont care who it is. I have to take the field
I forget the name but some h orse ran away in the 2 yr olds I think and everyone was talkijng super horse and one of the casinos in Vegas offered a bet that the horse would win the derby. I couldnt wait and bet the Max on the field. Believe horse finised 5 in derby. There are a bunch of horse people that can tell you who the horse was.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I believe you are referring to Arazi. A really nice horse, but like many, just couldn't get it done in the Derby.
As for the Preakness, Smarty could easily get the job done. He'll have to do it, however, with someone besi me backing him.
I am not at all convinced that a 2:04 + Derby winner can win twice in a row. What if all the horses have four shoes for the whole race?
My money's on Cliff's Edge if he goes at 7-2 or better.
VVV
I dont care who it is. I have to take the field
I forget the name but some h orse ran away in the 2 yr olds I think and everyone was talkijng super horse and one of the casinos in Vegas offered a bet that the horse would win the derby. I couldnt wait and bet the Max on the field. Believe horse finised 5 in derby. There are a bunch of horse people that can tell you who the horse was.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I believe you are referring to Arazi. A really nice horse, but like many, just couldn't get it done in the Derby.
As for the Preakness, Smarty could easily get the job done. He'll have to do it, however, with someone besi me backing him.
I am not at all convinced that a 2:04 + Derby winner can win twice in a row. What if all the horses have four shoes for the whole race?
My money's on Cliff's Edge if he goes at 7-2 or better.
VVV
Smarty Jones gets cozy at Pimlico
By David Ginsburg, Associated Press, 5/12/2004 16:32
BALTIMORE (AP) Smarty Jones settled into prestigious Stall 40 at the Pimlico stakes barn Wednesday, resuming a tradition that was abandoned in 2002 and 2003.
Stall 40, which is reserved for the Kentucky Derby champion, has served as the Baltimore home to such champions as Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed.
Two years ago, however, Bob Baffert chose to put War Emblem in Stall 32 before the Preakness because he feared his horse would be distracted by a filly next door.
Superstition also factored into his decision.
''I've never been able to win the Triple Crown out of that stall,'' he said at the time.
Last year, the owners of Funny Cide opted to bring the Derby winner to Pimlico on the day of the race.
Smarty Jones seemed right at home in the stall, which stands under a list of magnificent horses that have stayed there.
''It's just amazing,'' assistant trainer Bill Foster. ''I never thought I'd be here, I know that, let alone the horse.''
Smarty Jones can remain unbeaten and add his name to the list with a victory Saturday in the Preakness.
''He's an amazing horse,'' Foster said. ''Everything you ask him, he does. If you watch him run, he attacks horses when he goes after them. He wants to be in front. I really can't fathom what it would look like if somebody went by him.''
MAKES HIS PITCH: The decision to bring Imperialism to the Preakness extended beyond owner Steve Taub's confidence in his horse's ability to beat Smarty Jones.
Taub told Preakness publicist Mike Gathagan last week, ''I've always wanted to go to Camden Yards. If you can arrange me to throw out the first pitch, we'll come.''
Gathagan learned that Smarty Jones trainer John Servis was chosen to throw out the ceremonial first pitch Friday night before the Baltimore Orioles' game against the Anaheim Angels. But the Orioles told Gathagan that Taub could throw out the first pitch before Sunday night's game if Imperialism wins.
''OK,'' Taub said. ''We're coming.''
A few days later, Taub pulled aside Imperialism rider Kent Desormeaux and told him, ''The pressure's on. You've got to win the Preakness.''
According to Taub, Desormeaux replied, ''I know. It's an important race and there's a lot of money at stake.''
''That's not why,'' Taub told the jockey. ''I don't care about the money, or about the trophy. I get to throw out the opening ball at Camden Yards live on ESPN on Sunday night!''
CLIFF ON EDGE: The Cliff's Edge was limping slightly after a quick run Wednesday, and trainer Nick Zito said it's possible he might not run the horse in the Preakness.
Zito said the horse's right front foot was ''pulsating.'' The trainer entered The Cliff's Edge in the draw Wednesday, and said he would decide Thursday whether to run the horse in the Preakness.
The Cliff's Edge lost both front shoes in the slop at Churchill Downs and finished fifth.
''Maybe everything related to the shoes has caught up to him,'' Zito said. ''His shoes were back on last Wednesday, he worked well on Sunday, and he looked great jogging here yesterday. Then this morning, something's wrong. My first thought is, why couldn't this happen in June? You never know day to day in this business.''
FAMILIAR SURROUNDINGS: If familiarity with the track means anything, then Water Cannon has home-field advantage in the Preakness.
The Maryland-bred gelding is the only horse in the field to have won at Pimlico, capturing the Federico Tesio Stakes last month. Although Water Cannon has won five straight, he is a decided long shot to extend the run to six.
Trainer Linda Albert will keep the horse at the track in nearby Bowie until the day of the race, just as Gary Capuano did last year with Cherokee's Boy.
Cherokee's Boy finished eighth with jockey Ryan Fogelsonger, who expects better results this time.
''I was more than a little nervous last year,'' Fogelsonger said. ''And while it's only natural to be excited at such an event, I don't think I'll be as nervous this time.''
By David Ginsburg, Associated Press, 5/12/2004 16:32
BALTIMORE (AP) Smarty Jones settled into prestigious Stall 40 at the Pimlico stakes barn Wednesday, resuming a tradition that was abandoned in 2002 and 2003.
Stall 40, which is reserved for the Kentucky Derby champion, has served as the Baltimore home to such champions as Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed.
Two years ago, however, Bob Baffert chose to put War Emblem in Stall 32 before the Preakness because he feared his horse would be distracted by a filly next door.
Superstition also factored into his decision.
''I've never been able to win the Triple Crown out of that stall,'' he said at the time.
Last year, the owners of Funny Cide opted to bring the Derby winner to Pimlico on the day of the race.
Smarty Jones seemed right at home in the stall, which stands under a list of magnificent horses that have stayed there.
''It's just amazing,'' assistant trainer Bill Foster. ''I never thought I'd be here, I know that, let alone the horse.''
Smarty Jones can remain unbeaten and add his name to the list with a victory Saturday in the Preakness.
''He's an amazing horse,'' Foster said. ''Everything you ask him, he does. If you watch him run, he attacks horses when he goes after them. He wants to be in front. I really can't fathom what it would look like if somebody went by him.''
MAKES HIS PITCH: The decision to bring Imperialism to the Preakness extended beyond owner Steve Taub's confidence in his horse's ability to beat Smarty Jones.
Taub told Preakness publicist Mike Gathagan last week, ''I've always wanted to go to Camden Yards. If you can arrange me to throw out the first pitch, we'll come.''
Gathagan learned that Smarty Jones trainer John Servis was chosen to throw out the ceremonial first pitch Friday night before the Baltimore Orioles' game against the Anaheim Angels. But the Orioles told Gathagan that Taub could throw out the first pitch before Sunday night's game if Imperialism wins.
''OK,'' Taub said. ''We're coming.''
A few days later, Taub pulled aside Imperialism rider Kent Desormeaux and told him, ''The pressure's on. You've got to win the Preakness.''
According to Taub, Desormeaux replied, ''I know. It's an important race and there's a lot of money at stake.''
''That's not why,'' Taub told the jockey. ''I don't care about the money, or about the trophy. I get to throw out the opening ball at Camden Yards live on ESPN on Sunday night!''
CLIFF ON EDGE: The Cliff's Edge was limping slightly after a quick run Wednesday, and trainer Nick Zito said it's possible he might not run the horse in the Preakness.
Zito said the horse's right front foot was ''pulsating.'' The trainer entered The Cliff's Edge in the draw Wednesday, and said he would decide Thursday whether to run the horse in the Preakness.
The Cliff's Edge lost both front shoes in the slop at Churchill Downs and finished fifth.
''Maybe everything related to the shoes has caught up to him,'' Zito said. ''His shoes were back on last Wednesday, he worked well on Sunday, and he looked great jogging here yesterday. Then this morning, something's wrong. My first thought is, why couldn't this happen in June? You never know day to day in this business.''
FAMILIAR SURROUNDINGS: If familiarity with the track means anything, then Water Cannon has home-field advantage in the Preakness.
The Maryland-bred gelding is the only horse in the field to have won at Pimlico, capturing the Federico Tesio Stakes last month. Although Water Cannon has won five straight, he is a decided long shot to extend the run to six.
Trainer Linda Albert will keep the horse at the track in nearby Bowie until the day of the race, just as Gary Capuano did last year with Cherokee's Boy.
Cherokee's Boy finished eighth with jockey Ryan Fogelsonger, who expects better results this time.
''I was more than a little nervous last year,'' Fogelsonger said. ''And while it's only natural to be excited at such an event, I don't think I'll be as nervous this time.''
