Observation On Basketball

[pbampj]

Betting on ML Dogs is something I jsut started doing last week. Although I also play sides fav/dog with the spread, I've started a thread with strictly my ML Dog picks, taking money on games which I feel have value- and recording them to keep a track of units gained or lost. Some bettors play the whole season to only result in a 20 unit gain, some more, and many more ending with a losing season.

I think ML Dogs have tremendous value in them especially in the fact that the linesmaker is setting up the spread just to get even bets on both sides and isn't truly an indication/prediction for the game's final score. I've played many games where I've taken heavy dogs and theyd win the game outright and many games where I've taken heavy favorites to watch them lose outright. The biggest disadvantage I see in betting MLs is the limit of games you can play. eg. betting on the Bobcats to beat Phoenix at home outright (lets get real here) compared to taking the +11 pts which might give the bet some validity. Of course such lopsided games as this, I would never take money on.But I do believe many dogs can win and will win outright throughout the rest of the season, as well as many big dogs, by big meaning +5 or +180.

Only time will tell how it;ll pan out but I'm giving it a trial run. Who knows maybe it;ll turn out to be a better and less heart-breaking method for a winning NBA season.

 

[Ego74]

Sherman,

All I am saying is people should put extra time in considering the M/L before taking on the spread. All to often, we take the points spread without thinking. You will see it on here all the time, people posting picks + this - that when the M/l would be the smartest play.

Nothing wrong with playing the dog ATS and ML. That's what i usually do, since i don't bet dogs unless i believe they can win the game SU. Only exception is playing a dog +17 or so, when i believe it'll be a single digit game. In that case, there is no ML anyway.

 

[Ego74]

Personally I don't like a moneyline on a small dog like 2 points or so, I'd rather get a free half. I refuse to play a fav on ML. A ML on a larger dog is nice. Better yet are action points, I like the flexibility they allow you. I like second half also.

agree with you on ML faves. Playing them everyday will KILL you.