The thing that sticks out when looking at my figures for the NFC is apart to a lesser degree Indianapolis, how similar all the Teams have played this Year. It’s easy to say run the ball and stop the run but not always easy to do. This gave me the notion that maybe the talent divide between Teams is bigger than we think. After digging up some stats, this does appear to be the case. I understand how stats can say what you want them to say and how you can get bogged down by them. So I have tried to keep things as simple as possible at all times, basically what I found overall was, compared to 2003, more Teams were less proficient running the ball and stopping the run. Below shows a few numbers:
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
Off Rushing Yds Per Game………………………Def Rushing Yds Per Game
YDS....No of Teams..2003……2004……YDS……..2003………2004
110-129…………..........3………..12……………80-89……….4………….1
100-109………………..9…………6…………….90-99……….2………….0
90-99…………………..4………….3……………100-109…….8………….2
80-89…………………,1…………2……………110-119…….5………….6
<o></o>
The Jets beat The Chargers 34-28 in Week 2 being 3pt favourites coming in. The score flattered San Diego as The Jets dominated throughout. Since then the thinking is that The Jets have dropped off a bit while San Diego is one of, if not the most improved Team in the NFL. Some four months later and The Chargers are now 6pt favourites, have they improved some 9pts in that time?
This Year also had several Teams, Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Oakland, Chicago, NY Giants and SF49ers who through injury and the like could hardly be called NFL calibre. Carolina and Arizona also had their troubles early on. As I pointed out last Week with Buffalo, a deeper look into Teams is needed, as all have played some vastly inferior Clubs.
<o></o>
NY Jets @ San Diego
As I expected San Diego to improve this Year, (I bet them in the Jets game) I didn’t take much notice of other peoples view of their improvement. What I did notice was how the Line-makers continually underrated them in their spreads, a sign that they weren’t convinced of improvement, rarely is the Books view wrong long term. Taking into account what has been said earlier and considering The Chargers played 4 games, 5 if you include Carolina at the time, against injury depleted Teams, I thought the best way to gauge any improvement was to compare this Year with last.
<o></o>
The common view is that the Offense has improved significantly while not losing its run orientated attack. So once again, keeping it simple, San Diego averaged 4.2yds per rush and 210yds per game passing. Surprisingly, in 2003 they rushed for 5.1yds per rush and 188yds passing. Another stat I find valuable is the +15 turnovers this year against –11 last Year. On Defense, this Year they gave up 3.7yds per rush and 253yds passing per game. 2003, they were 4.2yds per rush and 210yds passing, almost a mirror image of the Offense. It could be argued that these figures are meaningless and I must admit after plenty of thought, nothing stood out. It was only after considering the following that anything made sense. San Diego played 9 games in 2003 against .500 Teams, going 1-8, this Year they were 3-4. In Defense of The Chargers, they have belly flopped their 3<SUP>rd</SUP> down conversion rate from last year and of course Brees halved his INTs to 7. Brees and the passing game seem to be the answer, but when you see that 5 of the 7 INTs went to the .500 Teams, and question whether 22yds passing per game constitutes an improvement, and then I prefer to look elsewhere. I am of the opinion, that like Buffalo, San Diego has also taken advantage of this seasons weak Teams. This has led to winning results, also an improvement in their 3<SUP>rd</SUP> downs, INTs and Turnovers rates while not having to do any more statistically running or passing, than last Year.
<o></o>
I don’t see any point in analysing The Jets, as I would think everyone would agree that they are basically what they were last Year, an above average Team but not good enough to beat the best. On my figures, it would appear that their Defense has improved and there does seem to be legitimate excuses for some of their losses, Pennington being injured and Abraham out for the last 4 games.
<o></o>
I haven’t decided what to do in this game yet as there are two things that concern me. The first is Pennington’s play since his comeback and the fact they play Saturday on the West Coast after being in O/T on the road Sunday. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.
<o></o>
Best of luck in the play-offs.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Off Rushing Yds Per Game………………………Def Rushing Yds Per Game
YDS....No of Teams..2003……2004……YDS……..2003………2004
110-129…………..........3………..12……………80-89……….4………….1
100-109………………..9…………6…………….90-99……….2………….0
90-99…………………..4………….3……………100-109…….8………….2
80-89…………………,1…………2……………110-119…….5………….6
<o
></o>The Jets beat The Chargers 34-28 in Week 2 being 3pt favourites coming in. The score flattered San Diego as The Jets dominated throughout. Since then the thinking is that The Jets have dropped off a bit while San Diego is one of, if not the most improved Team in the NFL. Some four months later and The Chargers are now 6pt favourites, have they improved some 9pts in that time?
This Year also had several Teams, Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Oakland, Chicago, NY Giants and SF49ers who through injury and the like could hardly be called NFL calibre. Carolina and Arizona also had their troubles early on. As I pointed out last Week with Buffalo, a deeper look into Teams is needed, as all have played some vastly inferior Clubs.
<o
></o>NY Jets @ San Diego
As I expected San Diego to improve this Year, (I bet them in the Jets game) I didn’t take much notice of other peoples view of their improvement. What I did notice was how the Line-makers continually underrated them in their spreads, a sign that they weren’t convinced of improvement, rarely is the Books view wrong long term. Taking into account what has been said earlier and considering The Chargers played 4 games, 5 if you include Carolina at the time, against injury depleted Teams, I thought the best way to gauge any improvement was to compare this Year with last.
<o
></o>The common view is that the Offense has improved significantly while not losing its run orientated attack. So once again, keeping it simple, San Diego averaged 4.2yds per rush and 210yds per game passing. Surprisingly, in 2003 they rushed for 5.1yds per rush and 188yds passing. Another stat I find valuable is the +15 turnovers this year against –11 last Year. On Defense, this Year they gave up 3.7yds per rush and 253yds passing per game. 2003, they were 4.2yds per rush and 210yds passing, almost a mirror image of the Offense. It could be argued that these figures are meaningless and I must admit after plenty of thought, nothing stood out. It was only after considering the following that anything made sense. San Diego played 9 games in 2003 against .500 Teams, going 1-8, this Year they were 3-4. In Defense of The Chargers, they have belly flopped their 3<SUP>rd</SUP> down conversion rate from last year and of course Brees halved his INTs to 7. Brees and the passing game seem to be the answer, but when you see that 5 of the 7 INTs went to the .500 Teams, and question whether 22yds passing per game constitutes an improvement, and then I prefer to look elsewhere. I am of the opinion, that like Buffalo, San Diego has also taken advantage of this seasons weak Teams. This has led to winning results, also an improvement in their 3<SUP>rd</SUP> downs, INTs and Turnovers rates while not having to do any more statistically running or passing, than last Year.
<o
></o>I don’t see any point in analysing The Jets, as I would think everyone would agree that they are basically what they were last Year, an above average Team but not good enough to beat the best. On my figures, it would appear that their Defense has improved and there does seem to be legitimate excuses for some of their losses, Pennington being injured and Abraham out for the last 4 games.
<o
></o>I haven’t decided what to do in this game yet as there are two things that concern me. The first is Pennington’s play since his comeback and the fact they play Saturday on the West Coast after being in O/T on the road Sunday. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.
<o
></o>Best of luck in the play-offs.
